ACUS11 KWNS 142007
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142007=20
NEZ000-COZ000-142200-

Mesoscale Discussion 0778
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0307 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Areas affected...Southwest into central Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 142007Z - 142200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Large/very-large hail and severe winds will be the primary
threats as storms develop and mature this afternoon and evening.
Supercells on the southern end of the activity may have slightly
higher associated tornado threat. A watch is likely late this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Dewpoints have held in the low 60s F in central
Nebraska this afternoon. Cumulus towers and recent lightning have
been observed in Cherry County in the last hour along a surface
boundary. Water vapor imagery shows ascent increasing in Colorado as
a shortwave trough continues to pivot northeastward. This ascent
should reach western/southwestern Nebraska later this afternoon. In
the near term, additional storms appear probable as
heating/convergence continue along the boundary. The eastern
boundary is the most likely zone for initiation, though additional
storms could form on the weaker boundary to the west. With
deep-layer shear having a more westerly component this far south,
which should be maintained/modestly increase as the trough ejects
this evening, a mixed mode of linear segments and supercells can be
expected. Supercells will be favored with southern extent.

Modestly steep mid-level lapse rates and increasing shear by the
evening will support organized storms capable of large/very-large
hail (particularly supercells) and severe winds. While the low-level
jet response this evening is not expected to be overly strong, a
supercell along the southern flank of the activity may have slightly
higher tornado potential.

A watch is likely by late afternoon. Timing of watch issuance is
somewhat uncertain given greater storm coverage may wait until
greater mid-level ascent arrives by 22-00Z.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4ApOpbIQ0xotiqaQTF7qtvnt7pj-_9q2d8ZoTlkvxwYcf2m_s8w0Z7ZbUHi-nay3TNG0lqwEn= rHPlrcYR1Ki3zrZeSg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON 40060159 40500190 40890205 41400216 41980178 42400146
42820115 42990093 42800012 42179978 41089959 40599978
40180025 40010067 40060159=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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