ACUS11 KWNS 141901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141900=20
SDZ000-NDZ000-142100-

Mesoscale Discussion 0777
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0200 PM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Areas affected...Parts of western/central South
Dakota...south-central North Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 141900Z - 142100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Marginally severe hail will be possible with elevated
storms west of the surface boundary. Large hail/severe gusts are
possible to the east where storms will be surface based. Watch
potential is currently low, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Convection in western South Dakota continues to
reinforce a surface boundary just west of the Missouri River.
Surface heating has slowly eroded MLCIN within the warm sector. A
few cumulus towers have begun to deepen along the boundary over the
past hour. In time, and with a modest increase in mid-level ascent
from the approaching trough, widely scattered to scattered storms
appear possible. Shear will be strongest on the cool side of the
front, but should still remain sufficient for organized storms.
Still, the greatest potential for large hail and severe winds will
be along and east of the boundary where buoyancy will be greater and
storms will be surface based. Given the vorticity along the
boundary, low potential for a brief tornado exists. To the west of
the front, elevated buoyancy and modestly strong shear will promote
storms capable of marginally severe hail.

The need for a watch remains unclear. Given the deep-layer
meridional flow, storm interactions/interference are likely. This
has potential to limit the overall severe threat. Convection trends
will continue to be monitored, however.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 05/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!58cmq-DkIG149Wu5X05c5y5gEpPyhCN6M4Fs2wfDaCI7lvyV5KBDaSvFpXs_7OGCxzmGe-3Ov= -v3jYlvpTFqcvQhNWI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON 43060168 43840231 45390218 46290085 46490031 46429968
45579932 44239974 43450019 43100055 43060168=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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