ACUS11 KWNS 141538
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141538=20
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-141815-

Mesoscale Discussion 0776
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1038 AM CDT Wed May 14 2025

Areas affected...central/eastern NC into far southeast VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 141538Z - 141815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Sporadic damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe
hail will be possible this afternoon with scattered, largely
disorganized thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Initial thunderstorm development is underway along the
coastal sea breeze in southern NC and ahead of a low-amplitude
shortwave impulse in north-central NC. Additional storms are
expected to form trailing south and east-northeast of the impulse as
it progresses east this afternoon. Robust insolation across a decent
swath of eastern NC has yielded surface temperatures running at
least a few degrees above guidance, and will likely support moderate
buoyancy in the next couple hours with MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000
J/kg. Despite the presence of the mid-level trough, weak lapse rates
above the boundary layer will temper updraft intensity. The primary
limiting factor will be weak deep-layer shear given close proximity
to the mid-level trough and the belt of moderate westerlies
relegated to its southwest quadrant. This suggests convection will predominately have pulse cell character, although loosely organized
multicells may develop later in the afternoon into eastern NC and
far southeast VA.

..Grams/Gleason.. 05/14/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-f3Lf7vRT_N-XYAIZjexk0Wno46HEvqOVaR4p4L2F3WeN1dGXLroYeeiuZb5F7i0FpL0PoFmd= jVEQ0pysDm3aRqcIgY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...

LAT...LON 36127970 36447927 36757816 36987745 37037706 37047660
36957634 36767624 36227661 35467725 34867756 33947779
33867837 33927863 34337888 34677989 34988001 35687946
36127970=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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