ACUS11 KWNS 041722
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041722=20
TXZ000-NMZ000-041915-

Mesoscale Discussion 0678
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Sun May 04 2025

Areas affected...southeast NM and far west TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely=20

Valid 041722Z - 041915Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...A few to several supercells, a couple of which may be
long-lived, should develop across southeast New Mexico into parts of
far west Texas this afternoon. Golf to tennis ball size hail,
localized severe gusts to 70 mph, and a brief tornado will be
possible. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed.

DISCUSSION...Despite modest low-level moisture, the northwest extent
of mid to upper 40s surface dew points should be maintained through
peak boundary-layer mixing. A difluent mid/upper flow regime
downstream of a strong zonal jetlet, centered on the border area
with northwest Mexico, and orographic forcing will aid in sufficient
ascent for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Low-level south-southeasterlies veering to the west-southwesterlies aloft will
be favorable for supercells, a couple of which may be long-lived.
Initial supercells should remain tied to the higher terrain near the
Sacramento Mountains into the far northern portion of the
Trans-Pecos with effective bulk shear from 30-40 kts. This will
increase above 40 kts towards late afternoon. Robust speed shear in
the upper portion of the buoyancy profile coupled with MLCAPE of
500-1500 J/kg should yield a threat for significant severe hail. The
overall spatial extent of sustained supercells should be fairly
confined, owing to more pronounced MLCIN southward in the
Trans-Pecos and diminishing buoyancy northward in NM.

..Grams/Gleason.. 05/04/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92bT3OqR5lnCmSLXpznXM_ACzzK6aUMwpD7lif8AfPQl4rRdqcTi8qKxxyKl9cvpdj3x3B4cb= if0Nxbx-eEGSKA8E54$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 33000620 33620623 34170608 34440475 33830393 33060301
32540281 31930292 31280315 30880398 31370457 31920522
33000620=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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