ACUS11 KWNS 160040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 160039=20
AZZ000-160245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1680
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0739 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Areas affected...southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 160039Z - 160245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Marginal risk for strong to severe wind will continue
through the afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity continues across portions of
southeastern Arizona, with occasional intense cores noted.
Temperatures have warmed to the upper 90s to 100 F through the afternoon/evening with dew point spreads of around 40-45 degrees.
The large dew point spread and low level lapse rates around 8-9 C/km
will promote a few instances of severe wind. This threat looks to
remain too localized for watch issuance.

..Thornton.. 07/16/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mB3JTarA6rZ9AL8fgWvf_A2d-qN0jtMY9jG17JsFHgaYvcd-RkXophZ9TMeajZsZ6L5_NLKh= U205K6S84S7L9hLsjs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

LAT...LON 32171206 32451187 32821104 32831019 32680968 32470936
32270924 31970925 31711011 31691091 31751151 31851180
32171206=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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