ACUS11 KWNS 150352
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150351=20
MNZ000-NDZ000-150545-

Mesoscale Discussion 1672
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1051 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...parts of central/northeastern North Dakota through
north central Minnesota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 150351Z - 150545Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Intensifying thunderstorm development could support
increasing potential for severe hail during the next few hours, with
some possibility for storms to organize and perhaps become
accompanied by strong to locally severe gusts overnight. It is
still not clear that a severe weather watch will be needed, but
trends are being monitored for this possibility.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm development, rooted within forcing for
ascent associated with low-level warm advection, is underway
southwest of Devils Lake, near the Carrington vicinity of central
North Dakota. This is based above a relatively cool, stable
boundary layer, to the north of a developing warm frontal zone
arcing across east central North Dakota into north central
Minnesota. Into the 06-07Z time frame, the strengthening Minnesota
segment of the frontal zone is forecast to shift northward, roughly
from the Brainerd through Bemidji vicinity. This is also focused
along the northern periphery of a plume of warmer and more strongly
capping elevated mixed-layer air.

Although south to southwesterly low-level flow remains weak beneath
modest westerly mid-level flow on the southern fringe of the
westerlies, a strengthening low-level jet (in excess of 30 kt around
850 mb) across South Dakota is forecast to nose northeastward toward
the Jamestown through Grand Forks vicinity of North Dakota within
the next couple of hours. As this occurs, strengthening forcing for
ascent will probably become supportive of increasingly thunderstorm development, which may gradually organize in the presence of
strengthening shear.=20=20

Forecast soundings indicate at least a narrow corridor of sizable
CAPE for elevated moist parcels along the frontal zone, providing
support for the potential evolution of a few supercell structures.=20
This probably will be accompanied by a risk for large hail. Given
the elevated nature of the convection, and the presence of a stable
near surface layer, the risk for strong to severe surface gusts
appears low, at least initially. However, it might not be out of
the question that gravity waves generated by intensifying convection
could contribute to surface pressure perturbations supportive of
strong surface gusts, as convection develops eastward along the
frontal zone into north central Minnesota overnight.

..Kerr/Thompson.. 07/15/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_7hp-KsyPsQIcxXgr2aeE-eSgYr-YXWXRjXfsZhlKhU8ePnoIWaPiEruC4n7Q5V8MEtcvYJDI= 4dC_55LHI8jdNVamb8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...BIS...

LAT...LON 47889956 48499704 48189362 47369365 47279653 47179951
47889956=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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