AWUS01 KWNH 021237
FFGMPD
AZZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-021800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0571
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
836 AM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...High Deserts of California and Nevada

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021235Z - 021800Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms blossoming across the High
Deserts of the Southwest will continue through the morning.
Despite fast motion, rainfall rates of 0.5"/hr could result in
instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows rapidly
expanding showers and embedded thunderstorms blossoming across
southeast CA and southern NV. These storms are developing despite
modest instability (SPC RAP analysis 500 J/kg of MUCAPE) but with
a steady increasing trend noted. This instability is overlapping
with PWs that are as high as 0.8 to 1.2 inches, or above the 90th
percentile for the date. Offsetting the modest thermodynamics,
forcing for ascent is increasing downstream of a strengthening
upper trough digging across CA leaving height falls and spokes of
vorticity/PVA across the Southwest, collocated with a low-level
convergence axis on the periphery of an 850mb moisture surge out
of Arizona. This ascent is helping to cause the rapid increase in
convective coverage this morning.

Rainfall rates have been estimated via KESX to be as high as
0.5"/hr at times, which despite rapid storm motions on 850-300mb
mean winds of 20-25 kts from the south, has produced 3-hr rainfall
according to MRMS of up to 0.75 inches. As the ascent continues to
maximize through the morning downstream of the upper trough, the
low-level flow surges higher moisture northeast, and instability
climbs through the morning, activity should expand and intensify.
Although the CAMs are struggling with the coverage and intensity
of ongoing convection, the environment suggests that storms should
continue for several more hours, and the HRRR-forced UA WRF
indicates rain rates will continue at as much as 0.5"/hr through
this aftn with a slow northward advance of heavy rainfall. At the
same time, convection will likely build repeatedly into the
greater thermodynamics over the High Deserts of CA, with lines of
storms training south to north producing locally as much as 1.5"
of rain.

These impressive rain rates will move across soils that are
saturated above the 90th percentile with respect to 0-40cm depths
according to NASA SPoRT. While impacts due to this rainfall are
likely to be isolated and focused across any sensitive terrain
features or urban areas, where any longer-duration training can
occur through the next several hours, instances of flash flooding
are possible.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yV5bA2r-YrpC5-cxWemp6wayyCv4X9W8JMxXw4iO7pjXjHkr3MEhMYnxZ7j3q9ytU7d= fFZ8h7lJR33hfaLKKeb1EDg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HNX...LKN...PSR...SGX...SLC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38391576 38031475 37381394 36081394 34941409=20
34231431 33861470 33831530 33981583 34391647=20
34911710 35691768 36621780 37941705=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021526
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0572
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1126 AM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Pee Dee region of SC through the Tidewater region
of VA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021525Z - 022100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will gradually expand in
coverage and intensify through the afternoon ahead of a front
sagging slowly across the area. Rainfall rates at times this
afternoon will likely exceed 2"/hr, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts approaching 5". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are expanding across
eastern/central North Carolina and far southern Virginia this
morning. This convection is blossoming rapidly downstream of a
slow moving, almost stationary, front which will eventually kick
east as a cold front later this afternoon. The evolution of this
front will be driven by a mid-level trough axis that will
gradually swing east, and the overlap of the accompanying height
falls with low-level convergence along the front will drive ascent
to produce numerous thunderstorms through the afternoon. The
environment into which this ascent will impinge will become
increasingly favorable for heavy rainfall as 850mb SW flow of 20
kts resupplies PWs of 2-2.2 inches and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg
northeastward. Additionally, this low-level inflow will equal or
exceed the mean wind in the generally weakly forced environment,
suggesting additional ascent through convergence.

Rainfall rates so far this morning have been estimated to be above
2"/hr in the strongest cores, and a flash flood warning was just
issued near Emporia, VA. While general cell motions have been
modest on 0-6km mean winds of 15 kts, effective storm motions are
much slower thanks to Corfidi vectors aligned increasingly
anti-parallel to the mean flow and collapsed to just 5kts or less.
This suggests that as the afternoon progresses and storms become
more numerous, backbuilding/training of cells will become more
common, lengthening the duration of heavy rainfall across many
areas. Both the HREF and REFS suggest a moderate/high chance
(40-70%) of rainfall rates exceeding 2"/hr, and with warm cloud
depths rising to 13,000-14,000 ft, efficient warm rain processes
may produce brief 3+"/hr rates. Through training, this has the
potential (40-60% chance) of producing 2-3" of rain, with locally
as much as 5" possible.

FFG across this region is elevated (generally 3-4"/3hrs) so
exceedance probabilities arelow, peaking at just 10-20%. This
should generally limit the coverage of flash flood impacts today.
However, the intensity of these rain rates, especially where
training occurs or if they repeat across urban areas, could result
in instances of flash flooding through the afternoon.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!75qQqfzl-yuapZAnE9C8i93lZa6z7NJym1GEuz-7KLWFd3ROPX9QWTou-OeIvczrIf_5= 5RNe9aaNSo8PjNuSToj9wBU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...MHX...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37367652 37087614 36777590 36237548 35677540=20
35207583 34687690 34277766 34027809 33937846=20
34097911 34318003 34538030 34868032 35487990=20
36397902 37247742=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 021850
FFGMPD
NMZ000-AZZ000-030050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0573
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 021850Z - 030050Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms developing this afternoon may
contain rainfall rates up to 1"/hr and overlap with sensitive burn
scars, urban regions, and complex terrain of southeast Arizona and
southwest New Mexico. Isolated to scattered instances of flash
flooding are possible.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES19 IR satellite imagery depict
numerous small-scale thunderstorms developing this afternoon
across the Southwest in response to diurnal heating and within an
anomalously moist atmosphere. PWs are estimated to be within
1.2-1.5" per SPC's mesoanalysis, which falls between the 75th and
90th climatological percentile per the 00z ECENS. Additionally,
SBCAPE values are largely above 1000 J/kg across this region,
which is necessary for coverage of thunderstorms to produce
scattered instances of flash flooding and rainfall rates up to
1"/hr.

Mean layer flow in this region remains weak and out of the southas
an upper low churns well to the west over coastal CA, which should
lead to eventually thunderstorms becoming outflow dependent and
tending to progress southward towards greater instability. As
storms do this, cell mergers could briefly increase rainfall rates
and potential flash flooding impacts. The 12z HREF shows the
greatest potential for rainfall amounts exceeding FFG near and
south of Tucson, AZ and along the AZ-Mexico border. It is here
where a mid-level convergence axis may focus thunderstorm activity
late this afternoon once storms reach their peak maturity and
updrafts collapse. Given the sensitive burn scars across parts of
southwest NM and the urban center of Tucson, scattered instances
of flash flooding are possible should these slow-moving
thunderstorms overlap.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8uag6s8NOjDaFJQ7N8mqZuASUnwK3rPI-9CwoXgQapVQzht_yEaSwGbOnZe3eLrMj4Or= Zn7njssz5U1RruYZR_tJpsE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...FGZ...PSR...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34891065 34130980 33930895 34040789 33670742=20
32630749 31720781 31190846 31070976 31171122=20
31481221 32061283 32731275 32941177 33371144=20
34221151 34731124=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 022059
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-030057-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0574
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
458 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Pee Dee region of South Carolina into far
southern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 022057Z - 030057Z

SUMMARY...A localized threat of flash flooding is expected to
continue through this evening across parts of the Pee Dee region
of South Carolina and far southern North Carolina, including the
Cape Fear region. Training thunderstorms with rates up to 3"/hr
and rainfall totals up to 4" are possible, potentially leading to
instances of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery and surface observations depict
repeating thunderstorms over eastern SC and far southern NC
associated with an area of surface convergence ahead of an
approaching cold front. This area of convergence is also being
aided by a sea breeze denoted by GOES19 visible imager over SC,
which should continue to be oriented parallel to 850mb flow over
the next few hours and add to the training thunderstorm potential.
Hourly rainfall rates have been estimated by MRMS as high 3" and
when combined with the repeating nature of cells could lead to
isolated flash flooding concerns. Even though the region is known
for its sandy soils and high FFG (1-hr FFG of 2.5-4.0"), some
localized totals of 4" could lead to isolated instances of flash
flood. This is of particular concern in low-lying or urban
locations.

PW values per SPC's mesoanalysis remain above 2" and as high at
2.4" in eastern NC, with MLCAPE values in the inflow region of
central SC greater than 2500 J/kg. This environment supports the
19z HRRR depiction of 3-hrly rainfall amounts possibly exceeding
3" and nearing local FFG.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6QxlGEsfocsB6wSOV6ULBqf_KP7-FpPEBN2WpsU1TTsl3rRIDwXicQOklBBCuEMYkp6f= Xe53wF3TwSc4JXCWbTS3cck$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...ILM...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34657918 34527801 34327755 34017751 33817789=20
33777842 33687892 33417937 33527977 33907997=20
34417977=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030050
FFGMPD
AZZ000-030550-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0575
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
850 PM EDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Areas affected...Parts of west-central into southern Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030050Z - 030550Z

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms containing rainfall rates up
to 1.5"/hr are expected to continue early tonight and may produce
isolated instances of flash flooding, particularly should storms
converge near the Phoenix metropolitan area.

DISCUSSION...GOES19 IR imagery shows cooling cloudtops associated
with strengthening thunderstorms this evening across parts of
central AZ. This ongoing while an upper low over central CA
continues to funnel a plentiful amount of moisture northward into
the Desert Southwest. SPC's mesoanalysis depicts the region with
widespread PWATs above 1.5"and MLCAPE generally between 1000-2000
J/kg. This environment is sufficient for 1.5"/hr rates that could
overcome the dry complex desert terrain to lead to rapid runoff
and flash flooding. Additionally, mean layer winds remain
relatively light (per the 23z RAP) and around 5-10 kts out of the south-southwest. This leads to thunderstorms dominantly outflow
dependent, as seem in current radar visuals, but also tied to an
instability gradient extending across southwest AZ in a
northwest-southeast orientation. This is where the strongest
storms are current located in west-central and south-central AZ.

Recent 23z HRRR, while not perfect, has a decent handle on ongoing
convection and depicts the potential for isolated to scattered
1-hrly totals of 1-2" to continue through at least 05z, while also
encroaching upon the Phoenix metro. This area is also highlighted
by RAP guidance as an area of increasing low-level convergence and
MLCAPE by about 02z or so. Given the relatively quick outflow
dominated storm motions, flash flooding coverage is expected to be
isolated.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7pgdIXQgcu6i7l4VV4vPfUwixECDXtd_BjM6xJ_h_lquMi0L8J8rqanL4ruVnxvDPLC0= 7EFLw5r1t1T7Q1nW2nv6-l8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...TWC...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34511202 34221105 33411059 32201100 31601168=20
31531227 31761266 32571286 33151328 33641411=20
34061405 34351343=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 030620
FFGMPD
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-031130-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0576
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...northwestern AZ, southern NV into eastern CA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 030617Z - 031130Z

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible across portions of northwestern AZ, southern NV
into eastern CA through 11Z. High rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0
inches in 15 minutes will be possible with storm totals near 2
inches.

DISCUSSION...Area radar and GOES West infrared satellite imagery
showed an increasing trend in convection over northwestern AZ,
centered over central and southern Mohave County through 06Z. Low
level confluence and low level moisture increasing from a
combination of remnant outflow from the east and low level winds
advecting in moisture from the south to southeast have allowed for
an increase in MLCAPE over western/northwestern AZ with 06Z SPC
mesoanalysis data showing 1000 to 2000+ J/kg. The SSE to NNW
oriented instability max was co-located with anomalous moisture
with SPC mesoanalysis estimated PW values of 1.5 inches along the
CA/AZ border to 1.8 inches near PHX.

Continued development of convection is expected over northwestern
AZ, southern NV and eastern CA as low level moisture increases
instability to the west and slightly north over the tri-state
region over the next few hours. Aloft, the region resides to the
east of an upper level trough over south-central CA with a 50-60
kt jet max measured by GOES West DMV over eastern NV, placing
locations over the tri-state region within the favored
right-entrance region for ascent. Mean steering flow from the
south to southwest at 10-20 kt should keep individual cells moving
but upstream development could allow for brief training with high
rainfall rates of 0.5 to 1.0 inches in 15 minutes, with similar
rates observed earlier in the night to the west of the Phoenix
metro. Any instances of flash flooding over southern Nevada,
northwestern AZ and eastern CA should be isolated to widely
scattered in coverage and storm total rainfall is expected to max
out near 2 inches.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8DzBAAUfqvX8vr9XWeQSdqI7A_OPmPrluBuIjX-NFmCF4rniF8zFDXw2-uaui8axegoZ= -rzsWxNXSz_cerKGN97gswE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

ATTN...RFC...RSA...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37331563 37161428 36151322 34351332 33701460=20
34101540 35471630 36721641=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031135
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
734 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas from the Big Bend through
the Edwards Plateaui

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031134Z - 031700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this morning and move slowly across parts of West Texas.
Rainfall rates at times may reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 1-3" of
rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this morning shows an expanding
area of cooling cloud tops over the Mexican state of Coahuila in
response to a potent shortwave lifting northward over the
Serranias del Burro. These cooling cloud tops are associated with
intensifying convection approaching the Big Bend of Texas, and
although reflectivity over the area is sparse at this time, the
GOES-E GREMLIN radar emulation appears to match the IR imagery
quite nicely showing higher reflectivity lifting towards the
international border. At the same time, showers have begun to
develop across the Edwards Plateau in response to a plume of
increasing MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg collocated with PWs that are
analyzed by the SPC RAP to be 1.8 to 2.2 inches, or above the 99th
percentile, thanks in part to a connection to tropical moisture
associated with Tropical Storm Flossie over the Eastern Pacific
noted via the ALPW products.

Although the CAMs are struggling to resolve the ongoing activity,
and admittedly are not exceptionally aggressive with rainfall the
next few hours, the environment and evolution support heavy
rainfall through the morning. Low-level S/SE flow measured at
850mb on the VWPs at both DFX and MAF are around 20 kts, which is
helping to transport the elevated PWs northward, and this flow may
be locally accelerated downstream of the approaching shortwave.
This will help to further improve the local thermodynamic
environment, while at the same time leading to locally enhanced
convergence into the mean wind which is generally around 10 kts.
This evolution suggests that storms will increase in coverage
(with additional ascent provided via the shortwave itself) and
then move slowly/chaotically as Corfidi vectors veer strongly to
the right of the mean wind and bulk shear remains minimal.
Although the CAMs are not initializing very well, the accompanying
HREF and REFS ensemble solutions do indicate increasing coverage
of 10-30% probabilities for 1"/hr rates, leading to 1-3" of rain
with isolated higher amounts.

FFG across the region is highly variable due a wide variation in
7-day rainfall, but in some places the 3-hr FFG is as low as 1.5
inches, and 0-40cm soil moisture just north of the international
border is above the 95th percentile. This indicates that some
areas are locally vulnerable to rapid runoff, so as storms spread
northward and expand/intensify, instances of flash flooding could
result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_8n5E9jOMxbByLpSD-CCFumC0eNUM-l0q9alrTzlNzLJ8mBnWdDAmmwgGqfVwW7DYxhG= tHWW4ZDttHByCH2LPad7jGs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32390144 32240056 31970032 31319998 30569973=20
29989966 29399983 28950014 28870061 29200124=20
29440185 29150266 28960313 28870351 29080407=20
29500445 29710463 30180465 30640416 31200337=20
31350324 32100231=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031138
FFGMPD
TXZ000-031700-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0577...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
738 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Corrected for areas affected

Areas affected...Portions of West Texas from the Big Bend through
the Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031134Z - 031700Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage this morning and move slowly across parts of West Texas.
Rainfall rates at times may reach 1-2"/hr, leading to 1-3" of
rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this morning shows an expanding
area of cooling cloud tops over the Mexican state of Coahuila in
response to a potent shortwave lifting northward over the
Serranias del Burro. These cooling cloud tops are associated with
intensifying convection approaching the Big Bend of Texas, and
although reflectivity over the area is sparse at this time, the
GOES-E GREMLIN radar emulation appears to match the IR imagery
quite nicely showing higher reflectivity lifting towards the
international border. At the same time, showers have begun to
develop across the Edwards Plateau in response to a plume of
increasing MUCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg collocated with PWs that are
analyzed by the SPC RAP to be 1.8 to 2.2 inches, or above the 99th
percentile, thanks in part to a connection to tropical moisture
associated with Tropical Storm Flossie over the Eastern Pacific
noted via the ALPW products.

Although the CAMs are struggling to resolve the ongoing activity,
and admittedly are not exceptionally aggressive with rainfall the
next few hours, the environment and evolution support heavy
rainfall through the morning. Low-level S/SE flow measured at
850mb on the VWPs at both DFX and MAF are around 20 kts, which is
helping to transport the elevated PWs northward, and this flow may
be locally accelerated downstream of the approaching shortwave.
This will help to further improve the local thermodynamic
environment, while at the same time leading to locally enhanced
convergence into the mean wind which is generally around 10 kts.
This evolution suggests that storms will increase in coverage
(with additional ascent provided via the shortwave itself) and
then move slowly/chaotically as Corfidi vectors veer strongly to
the right of the mean wind and bulk shear remains minimal.
Although the CAMs are not initializing very well, the accompanying
HREF and REFS ensemble solutions do indicate increasing coverage
of 10-30% probabilities for 1"/hr rates, leading to 1-3" of rain
with isolated higher amounts.

FFG across the region is highly variable due a wide variation in
7-day rainfall, but in some places the 3-hr FFG is as low as 1.5
inches, and 0-40cm soil moisture just north of the international
border is above the 95th percentile. This indicates that some
areas are locally vulnerable to rapid runoff, so as storms spread
northward and expand/intensify, instances of flash flooding could
result.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-_IYstZlWNU4c9cGWKyJb99spL_po8VVePxwqB5ixSNfBY6O936l-rqYjjr3WadEgDpu= sD4TYrmi5jEHtw_HnQopM34$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32390144 32240056 31970032 31319998 30569973=20
29989966 29399983 28950014 28870061 29200124=20
29440185 29150266 28960313 28870351 29080407=20
29500445 29710463 30180465 30640416 31200337=20
31350324 32100231=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031226
FFGMPD
ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-031730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0578
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
826 AM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern Oklahoma through Southern
Arkansas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031225Z - 031730Z

Summary...An axis of showers and thunderstorms will continue to
train across eastern Oklahoma this morning. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr
are expected within this convection, leading to 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this morning shows an axis
of expanding convection oriented NW to SE across eastern Oklahoma.
This convection is blossoming along an elevated 700mb front north
of a surface boundary draped over eastern Texas, with persistent
isentropic ascent and moisture confluence occurring into the
boundary on 850-700mb winds of 15-25 kts measured via local VWPs.
Moisture is impressive across the area with PWs around 2.1 inches
(above the 90th percentile) and 700-500mb RH above 90%. With 700mb
winds gradually veering and converging into this front, moisture
confluence is maximized along this boundary, which in combination
with the accompanying lift is driving the ongoing thunderstorm
activity.

The CAMs are struggling to initialize both the breadth and
intensify of the morning thunderstorms, leading to a lower than
typical confidence for the evolution the next few hours. However,
the ARW and ARW2, as well as the recent RRFS, all at least hint at
the activity and are used to help forecast the flash flood risk.
The setup will remain favorable for continued convection as
moisture confluence into the boundary combined with the
convergence will focus development along this axis. Mean 0-6km
winds will remain light at just 5-10 kts, and with Corfidi vectors
aligned parallel to the boundary and anti-parallel to the mean
wind, an enhanced risk for backbuilding and training of cells will
continue at least until the 850-700mb inflow weakens in the next
few hours. Although the axis of heavy rainfall is expected to be
narrow and focused along this elevated boundary, near-record PWs
and a slow rise in MUCAPE will support rain rates above 1"/hr,
which through training will create stripes of 2-3" of rain with
locally higher amounts.

FFG across the region is generally elevated at 2.5-4"/3hrs due to
a lack of recent rainfall across most of the discussion area, but
0-10cm soil moisture from NASA SPoRT has not fully dried and is
still above the 90th percentile in many areas. This suggests that
infiltration capacity of the soil is somewhat limited. So, where
training can occur (to saturate the soils and then overwhelm
them), instances of flash flooding are possible, but will be most
likely across urban areas or where the most pronounced training
does occur.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8UruzX9FDABfU30rss79ilt4DJCPLL0VlXOgEr08rjgz4qYB1PfxM6m4x8RArj7Tdtan= eyqQW-P2t1NAfFhtDavuwvg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36129736 36029613 35629516 35019440 34119356=20
33669337 33099367 33019447 33239507 33269527=20
33859660 34339764 34879814 35689808=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031631
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-032230-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0579
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Vicinity of the Red River Valley of the South

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031630Z - 032230Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will develop along a decaying
frontal boundary and train through the afternoon. Rainfall rates
may pulse up above 2"/hr at times, leading to 1-2" of rainfall
with locally higher amounts above 3". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic late this morning shows a
rapid uptick in convection developing along a decaying stationary
front aligned near the Red River Valley of the South. Recent radar
estimated rain rates from KTLX and KFWS have been as high as
1.5"/hr within fresh convection, with storm motions generally of
to the north at 10 kts.

The environment is becoming increasingly favorable for heavy rain
containing convection, with a ribbon of MLCAPE exceeding 1000 J/kg
overlapping PWs as high as 2 inches, which is well above the 90th
percentile for the date, and a daily max at KOUN according to the
SPC sounding climatology. Modest low-level S/SW winds measured via
VWPs at 10-20 kts lifting into the decaying front are resulting in
increasing isentropic ascent, which is acting together with a weak
impulse moving into North Texas and broadly diffluent 300mb flow
to provide deep layer ascent. This lift occurring into these
favorable thermodynamics will continue to support increasing
coverage and intensity of thunderstorms through the aftn.

The high-res CAMs are again struggling to handle the ongoing
activity, although the ensembles, both HREF and REFS, appear to be
usable. These ensembles both suggest that coverage of 1"/hr (and
2"/hr) neighborhood rain rate probabilities will rapidly rise
during the next few hours in a NW to SE oriented axis in the
vicinity of the decaying front. With ascent remaining in place and thermodynamics becoming increasingly robust later today (SBCAPE
approaching 2000 J/kg), thunderstorms should remain supported and
intensify. This is suggested by HREF and REFS probabilities for
2"/hr rates reaching 25-35%, coincident with HRRR 15-min rainfall
exceeding 0.75" at times (brief 3"/hr rates). Although the models
disagree on where the heaviest rain will occur, the maximum
convergence just north of the boundary should be favored, which is
also where Corfidi vectors are aligned most obliquely right of the
mean flow to suggest enhanced training from NW to SE as the line
forms and advects slowly northward.

0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT is generally around 50% south of the
Red River, but as much as 80% to the north, suggesting that OK is
more vulnerable than TX today. This is also where the, albeit
modest, FFG exceedance probabilities exist. While that area may be
most susceptible today, any place that receives training of these
more intense rain rates could experience instances of flash
flooding through the aftn.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5GFA3EAGPZhTpFR1EoH9QTxDjMZdOKy_UjflhKJgW57Q7WAUshYrX3xmnGCtn67JLU2a= VQdm_O_Js4MCmcNoAIIVpPw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 35959870 35539757 34169560 33269406 33179395=20
32699348 32269335 31989358 31839419 32089574=20
32769774 33449901 34419950 35509952=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031722
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-032315-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0580
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
121 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 031719Z - 032315Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand
downstream of twin shortwaves moving northward across West Texas.
Rainfall rates in excess of 2"/hr are possible at times, leading
to rainfall of 2-3" with locally as much as 5". Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E WV imagery this afternoon indicates dual
shortwaves moving northward across West Texas. The first is
associated with an MCV which is remnant from an impressive MCS
that lifted out of Coahuila, Mexico earlier this morning, while a
secondary shortwave is moving over the southern Permian Basin.
Both of these impulses are contributing impressive ascent into
robust thermodynamics to support heavy rainfall rates. These
thermodynamics are characterized by PWs that are above the 95th
percentile within the 700-500mb and 500-300mb layer according to
CIRA, overlapped with MLCAPE that is slowly climbing towards 1000
J/kg according to the SPC RAP analysis. Rainfall rates within
ongoing convection have been estimated above 1.5"/hr according to
KMAF WSR-88D, and morning rainfall today has already been measured
at 2-4" in some areas via MRMS and local mesonet observations.

Flash flooding is currently ongoing across the region, and the
slow poleward advance of these shortwaves will maintain or
increase flash flooding potential through the afternoon. These
shortwaves are going to continue to move northward as the region
remains pinched between a trough approaching from the west and a
ridge positioned to the east. Not only will this push these
shortwaves northward to continue lift, but will also draw more
impressive thermodynamics northward to support heavy rainfall.
Although CAMs are struggling to resolve current activity, both the
REFS and HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"/hr rates rise to
20-40%, while the HRRR 15-min rainfall accumulations reach as much
as 0.75", indicating at least brief 3"/hr rates. With mean 0-6km
winds remaining light from the S/SW at 5-10 kts, and Corfidi
vectors pointing back into the better moisture (anti-parallel to
the mean wind), this will support short term training of these
rates leading to rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts
approaching 5" possible.

In addition to the rain which has already occurred this morning,
0-10cm RSM from NASA SPoRT is above the 75th percentile across
much of the area, suggesting the soils are vulnerable to rapid
runoff. This is additionally reflected by 3-hr FFG that is as low
as 1.5"/3hrs. This indicates that any of these more intense rain
rates, especially during periods of training, could overwhelm the
soils leading to instances of flash flooding.

Weiss/Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P4sEI54wAfK3VVdXuBp82UxQYwuVt-dA9PTn7hIBz0x_igfg8AGrq5SrmUE264E_13v= id1BRKd9X0JqEPx3Hy5EN8Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EWX...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34630194 34490144 34310114 33930073 33680050=20
33100026 32540024 32020039 31480056 31310063=20
30890081 30350084 30020105 29630161 29710236=20
29850336 29680384 30080420 30780433 31270424=20
31440391 31440347 31680308 31860292 31970292=20
31980291 32630323 33460317 34370301 34500256=20
34580250=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 031901
FFGMPD
TXZ000-NMZ000-040100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0581
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...New Mexico & West Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 031900Z - 040100Z

SUMMARY...Broad upper-level troughing and an unstable air-mass
coupled with anomalous moisture and saturated soils could result
in additional areas of flash flooding today, especially near burn
scars.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough approaching from Arizona will
place a more efficient diffluent flow over much of New Mexico and
as far south as West Texas. GOES-19 visible satellite imagery and
GLM show a growing field of thunderstorms along the Southern
Rockies that continue to strengthen. Visible satellite shows this
area has generally been free of thick low-mid level clouds,
allowing for surface-based heating to occur relatively unimpeded.
RAP mesoanalysis depicts as much as 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in place
over eastern NM with 17Z RAP guidance showing anywhere from
1,000-2,000 J/kg later this afternoon. The region continues to
sport highly anomalous moisture aloft with PWATs over the Southern
Rockies and Rio Grande Valley generally between 1.0-1.25", while
the High Plains of eastern New Mexico are more commonly between
1.5-1.75". Regardless of the exact numbers, all these PWATs are
comfortably above the 90th climatological percentile per ECMWF ENS
guidance and even topping the 99th climatological percentile in
southeast New Mexico.

The approaching upper-level trough, copious amounts of moisture,
and modest instability should allow for the thunderstorm threat to
linger into the early evening hours. As the upper trough
approaches, SWrly 850-300mb mean winds should accelerate to >15
kts, which while this does help to keep storms moving along, this
can also further act as a trigger for additional storms or
back-building storms along windward-facing slopes. Storms along
the Sangre De Cristo and Sacramentos could also move northeast
into eastern New Mexico where any outflows emanating off the
terrain or from thunderstorms over western Texas could aid in the
development of thunderstorms producing >1.5"/hr rainfall rates.
NASA SPoRT-LIS 0-40cm soil moisture percentiles still suggest
soils of that depth remains quite saturated, or to the tune of
80-95%. Given the favorable atmospheric parameters and sensitive
soils, there is the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms
to pose a flash flood threat. Burn scars and rugged terrain, as
well as low-lying areas that drain poorly are most at-risk through
this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4OOKcQ77BlZYaUHPHvvztLf78W-VuVtVucnNFgSL8wQ7Tlhaog1rloaRxVcWrJA6Rvy8= 6Ul2j77iCK4ZKDOrpeLnaDk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...STR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36850564 36730511 36410479 36070451 35400405=20
34560351 33720326 32840317 32170336 31250425=20
30980511 30970555 31270612 31680679 31800713=20
31860746 31980787 32300823 32640823 33060812=20
33650803 34140818 34800815 35140796 35540754=20
35700743 36030666 36280640 36620594=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032302
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
702 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032300Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Concerning trends for back-building and training
thunderstorms over the Texas Hill Country this evening that could
produce >3"/hr max rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The remnant mid-level circulation associated with
Barry (also classified as an MCV on the graphic) is over western
Texas and slowly approaching the Texas Hill Country this evening.
Barry's remnant circulation has a dearth of atmospheric moisture
at its disposal with PWs ranging anywhere from 2.2-2.5". ECMWF ENS
percentiles show these PWs above the 99th climatological
percentile, as are the mean specific humidity (g/kg) values at
both the 850mb and 500mb height levels. The atmosphere is also
quite unstable with MUCAPE generally between 2,000-3,000 J/kg. As
night falls, the low-level jet (LLJ) will gradually accelerate out
of South Texas and intersect the Hill Country in a manner that
supports topographically-forced ascent. This low-level jet is also
part of a fairly strong southerly IVT for early July as the ECMWF
ENS percentiles depict >500 kg/m/s values (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) over the Hill Country between 00-06Z.
The impressive moisture advection is making for some remarkably
saturated RAP soundings where low-mid level RH values are >90% and
warm cloud layers are 15,000ft deep in many cases.

The concern with the MCV and remnant 500-700mb trough is that it
is paired with a persistent LLJ that looks to be steadfast over
the region well into the overnight hours. While there is not a ton
of vertical wind shear, noticeable veering in the sfc-3km layer
ensues as the LLJ strengthens this evening (SErly sfc winds, SWrly
3km winds). This could provide cells with the ability to be
somewhat self-sustaining and organized this evening. The other
concern is for outflows associated with a growing cold pool from
northerly convection to propagate south and be oriented in a way
where the southerly LLJ intersects the outflows in a perpendicular
fashion. The atmospheric parameters are supportive of not just the
potential for >3"/hr maximum rainfall rates, but for back-building
and training thunderstorms over the Hill Country.

The I-35 corridor on west is most at-risk for flash flooding
tonight. 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.5-2.0" in portions of
the Hill Country, which given the prolific rainfall potential
these storms may contain, would have little problem causing flash
flooding. For areas where back-building and training storms do
occur, locally considerable flash flooding this evening is
possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4HTUq9oReOifkEErBvNsVGeCd3qm4klwIk9b93F5tGu1pPpgmBj3Iz97euj4PO3RdvLj= iVUhkXutStPUlgcLqTYvcEM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33049861 32029772 30809750 29669772 29079855=20
29169957 29860011 30700023 31420008 32959969=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 032311
FFGMPD
TXZ000-040500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0582
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 032300Z - 040500Z

SUMMARY...Concerning trends for back-building and training
thunderstorms over the Texas Hill Country this evening that could
produce >3"/hr max rainfall rates.

DISCUSSION...The remnant mid-level circulation associated with
Barry (also classified as an MCV on the graphic) is over western
Texas and slowly approaching the Texas Hill Country this evening.
Barry's remnant circulation has an abundance of atmospheric
moisture at its disposal with PWs ranging anywhere from 2.2-2.5".
ECMWF ENS percentiles show these PWs above the 99th climatological
percentile, as are the mean specific humidity (g/kg) values at
both the 850mb and 500mb height levels. The atmosphere is also
quite unstable with MUCAPE generally between 2,000-3,000 J/kg. As
night falls, the low-level jet (LLJ) will gradually accelerate out
of South Texas and intersect the Hill Country in a manner that
supports topographically-forced ascent. This low-level jet is also
part of a fairly strong southerly IVT for early July as the ECMWF
ENS percentiles depict >500 kg/m/s values (above the 97.5
climatological percentile) over the Hill Country between 00-06Z.
The impressive moisture advection is making for some remarkably
saturated RAP soundings where low-mid level RH values are >90% and
warm cloud layers are 15,000ft deep in many cases.

The concern with the MCV and remnant 500-700mb trough is that it
is paired with a persistent LLJ that looks to be steadfast over
the region well into the overnight hours. While there is not a ton
of vertical wind shear, noticeable veering in the sfc-3km layer
ensues as the LLJ strengthens this evening (SErly sfc winds, SWrly
3km winds). This could provide cells with the ability to be
somewhat self-sustaining and organized this evening. The other
concern is for outflows associated with a growing cold pool from
northerly convection to propagate south and be oriented in a way
where the southerly LLJ intersects the outflows in a perpendicular
fashion. The atmospheric parameters are supportive of not just the
potential for >3"/hr maximum rainfall rates, but for back-building
and training thunderstorms over the Hill Country.

The I-35 corridor on west is most at-risk for flash flooding
tonight. 1-hr FFGs are generally between 1.5-2.0" in portions of
the Hill Country, which given the prolific rainfall potential
these storms may contain, would have little problem causing flash
flooding. For areas where back-building and training storms do
occur, locally considerable flash flooding this evening is
possible.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_yHIZeDGIDTRNYMDiGDn4Dfx7JVS2EEPIVonaO5RBBfPlBWbRc41SBIl3K9cGxGu6DMy= Czqt1QNOaq1-y-rSobAu9s0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33049861 32029772 30809750 29669772 29079855=20
29169957 29860011 30700023 31420008 32959969=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040405
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-040900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0583
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1205 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...western to southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040404Z - 040900Z

SUMMARY...Training of thunderstorms over western to southern WI
will likely produce a few areas of flash flooding through 09Z with
hourly rainfall of 1 to 2 inches, though localized hourly rates
near 3 inches in an hour will be possible. Some 3 to 5 inch totals
may result.

DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from 0345Z showed a NW to SE axis of
thunderstorms extending along/north of a slow moving warm front
which extended from just north of MSP to just south of MKE at 03Z.
The environment over the region contained 2000 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
and PWs of 1.5 to 1.8 inches, sampled well by the 00Z MPX
sounding. Southwesterly 850 mb winds of 20-25 kt were observed via
VAD wind plots from KMPX and KARX, overrunning the frontal
boundary with mean steering flow oriented parallel to the front, a
favorable setup for training. In addition, a remnant MCV near the
central MN/WI border appears to be contributing to lift across the
region.

Warm advection driven thunderstorms are likely to continue across
WI over the next few hours with southwesterly winds at 850 mb
remaining a similar magnitude overnight, but with some slow
advancement of the front toward the northeast expected. Congealing
of thunderstorms may promote some southward motions toward
southern WI, but upstream redevelopment will remain possible with
continued potential for training from NW to SE and hourly rainfall
likely to be in the 1 to 2 inch range, although one cannot rule
out locally higher rates of 2 to 3 inches in an hour. Flash flood
guidance of largely 2 to 3 inches in 3 hours across the region
should be exceeded in a few locations, resulting in a likely flash
flood threat over the next 3-5 hours.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9arsfwhKDLsedHSW03BQldKlP-9emyfcpOJrDAXgM2y7JlKP2fA3bZCTxixiW59y5JEc= WITwNCa8GMOgnK-NJUDQATY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...GRB...MKX...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 46279187 45479087 44979031 44188916 43388843=20
42658862 42578930 43149036 43979162 44649253=20
45269293 46139273=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 040527
FFGMPD
TXZ000-041030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0584
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
126 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 040525Z - 041030Z

Summary...Areas of flash flooding will be likely across central TX
overnight with very heavy rainfall expected. Hourly rainfall in
excess of 2 to 3 inches seems reasonable given the environment and
localized 6-hr totals over 6 inches will be possible. Some flash
flood impacts could be significant, especially considering
sensitive terrain over portions of the region.

Discussion...05Z regional radar mosaic over central TX showed an
ongoing area of thunderstorms with a few areas of very efficient
rainfall resulting from embedded training. As of 05Z, some of the
heaviest hourly rainfall (2 to 3 inches per MRMS) was occurring
over Bandera and San Saba counties. Another area of training was
found just southeast of San Angelo along US 87, tied to a remnant
MCV circulation (related to the remains of Barry's mid-level
circulation), located between SJT and JCT and embedded within a
broader mid-level trough that extended NNW into eastern CO. The
region was located within an extremely moist environment
containing 2.0 to 2.5 inches of PW with contributions from the
Gulf of America and tropical east Pacific clearly evident on
layered PW imagery.

Low level southerly winds sampled by area VAD wind plots at 850 mb
were 20-30 kt and these winds are expected to maintain through the
overnight with some subtle strengthening possible over the next
couple of hours. The upper trough and remnant mid-level
circulation over central TX is expected to slowly advance east
while low level convergence continues to focus from the TX Hill
Country, northward to the I-20 corridor. Terrain enhancement into
the Hill Country and low level convergence at the leading edge of
the stronger low level flow will set up favorably with the mean
steering flow from the southwest to support areas of training. The
tropical airmass will be capable of 2 to 3+ inches of rain in an
hour and localized totals over 6 inches in a 6 hour period may
also occur. These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result
in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of
which may become locally significant.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9P_qb2_ryj1wccwMzPDr1Zq2h4Gb7zLZSphL8VSaWFJb8OVMPXMv-hHD3rBxSNm05SmV= JmrFmljjCq3Nn-HrP9p6hcU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33139936 32779820 31759771 30119833 29209929=20
29330030 29950076 31250063 32340033=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041028
FFGMPD
TXZ000-041445-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0585
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
627 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041025Z - 041445Z

Summary...Areas of high Impact flash flooding will continue for at
least another 3-5 hour across portions of central TX. Slow to
nearly stationary net movement of heavy rain cores will maintain a
threat for hourly rainfall in excess of 3 inches in a couple of
locations. Considerable to catastrophic flash flood impacts can
continue to be expected.

Discussion...10Z radar imagery over central TX showed a cluster of
slow moving thunderstorms that extended from near San Angelo into
southern portions of the Hill Country. Embedded cells within the
cluster has exhibited near stationary movement with gauge reports
of 13+ inches about 7 miles northwest of San Angelo and 11+ inches
in Kerr County since 04Z. A long-lived embedded circulation
remained just east of San Angelo but there has been some
disruption over the past 30-60 minutes to the heavy rain cores
near San Angelo and over Kerr County. The environment remained
highly conducive to locally extreme rainfall with high freezing
levels of 15-16 kft AGL, PWs of 2.0 to 2.5 inches and up to 1000
J/kg MLCAPE via 10Z SPC mesoanalysis and RAP analysis data.

Low level convergence in the vicinity of the slow moving
circulation near San Angelo is expected to remain a focus for
localized heavy rainfall rates over the next few hours with the
axis of heaviest rainfall shifting a bit south and east in the
short term. Farther south, newer/smaller cells feeding into the
main complex over the Edwards Plateau are indicative of the
continued convergence across the region with slow net movement of
rainfall cores and MRMS-derived rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches in an
hour for a few locations in central TX. The threat for continued
higher end flash flooding is expected to remain relatively focused
across central TX over the next 3-5 hours at which point movement
of the mesoscale circulation and forecast weakening of the low
level winds into the Edwards Plateau may begin to decrease or at
least shift the heavy rain threat a bit toward the north and east.
However, through the remainder of the morning, with area creeks
and rivers rapidly rising, a very dangerous situation remains for
anybody within the highlighted MPD area. Considerable to locally
catastrophic impacts from flash flooding are likely to continue.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6mBkWL-35HTmwYhgglecFDGQvkRc86fThjGgHRAGza7qVHrIlCknqaFAckCEhFflLZp5= MyG_GzE0605UI22DQQC0eks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32389983 32189901 31859845 31409817 30429813=20
29799848 29239902 29159990 29490039 30230076=20
31430114 31950102 32300071=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041433
FFGMPD
TXZ000-042000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0586
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1033 AM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Hill Country and Edwards Plateau of south-central
Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 041430Z - 042000Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving MCC continues to compound significant flash
flooding with some areal expansion expected over next few hours.=20
WPC upgrade to Moderate Risk.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts the fairly symmetric MCC
remains ideally within anticyclonic wedge; while not very strong
outflow is sufficient with impressive transverse banding features
along much of the northern hemisphere of the circulation and with
the persistent strong updrafts/latent heat release the MCV
continues to remain strong near the McCulloch/Saba/Mason county
intersection. Regional RADAR mosaic denotes this with impressive
arched convective band along the effective cold front within the
western quadrant of the MCC from Mason to Sutton county and VWP
shows solid warm advective profile off the Rio Grande confluent
across central South Texas further expanding effective warm
frontal banding like features along and downstream to the SE of
the MCV. Upstream well of continued very moist and unstable air
with TPW values over 2.25" and MLCAPE gradient of 1000-2000 J/kg
along the southwest to southern side of the circulation. This
will support cells capable of 2-3"/hr

As the MCV wobbles and confluence increases into the WAA, the band
will once again shift across the Guadalupe River Valley likely to
induce another wave of flash flooding conditions. While Hi-Res
CAMs continue to suggest a weakening phase over the next few
hours, the upstream inflow and potential for upstream development
along the WAA regime may result in relatively with south-southwest
propagation equal/stronger than 10-15kt inflow resulting in
stationary cells with spots of additional 4-6" possible. As such
significant to catastrophic flash flooding is likely to continue
with potential to expand along the southern periphery of the MCC.=20


Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-c199t51wM3K-1cTLCvw_4TQOsZo7kwZCvK34MKu9-9jlFG6cVXNwSV5NOlXaYxUawsz= 3r0rGDQAwPKKcjAE8bjYTx8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31449905 30979848 30689768 29959762 29429807=20
29189869 29099927 29310003 29940063 30470084=20
30860075 31040040 31299992 31429983=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041902
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0587
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
302 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Texas Triangle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041900Z - 050000Z

SUMMARY...Unstable air downstream of persistent MCC will have=20
solid moisture flux allowing for intense localized 2-3"/hr rates
and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows mature MCV has stalled in the
vicinity of San Saba/Mills county but is also starting to stretch
southwest to northeast. Dense central dense mid to upper-level
cloud cover has resulted in a strong differential heating boundary
along the NE to eastern side of the canopy with MLCAPEs building
over 2000 J/kg (with greater values within the confluent boundary
along the distant eastern side toward Houston/Galveston Bay.=20
However, VWP shows solid 20-30kt weakly veered southerly flow
across the Heart of Texas within the core of enhanced deep layer
moisture with total PWats of 2.25" nearing 2.5". Currently, the
DPVA from the inner core of the MCV shifting northeast though the
mid-level elongation has started to break out stronger
thunderstorms along that differential heating boundary.

The flux convergence will support highly efficient rainfall
production with 2-3"/hr rates. However, deep layer flow and
southeastward inflow will support eastward propagation as cells
move in the north to northeast steering flow. This steering flow
is semi-confluent to suggest some merging/training but the
propagation vectors of 15kts to the southeast, may reduce
prolonged duration. Still spots of 2-4" are probable and given
FFG values are higher/less compromised to the east; incidents of
flash flooding are considered possible.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!84PmK_LEHNWLIjs_ofhsY-zXi7huL0gRdGGdYG-UBiu_ma1N5u4EpdgbtHyOZanSa7KU= A4r0HGTg1YcsgEQJJ4D8NsY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32479764 32429670 32169626 31699591 31079582=20
30519613 30059697 30029792 30509806 31379830=20
31949849=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 041911
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050110-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0588
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Dakotas & Northern Minnesota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 041910Z - 050110Z

SUMMARY...Blossoming clusters of thunderstorms to produce >2"/hr
rainfall rates poses a threat for potential flash flooding this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A potent 500mb trough approaching from the northern
High Plains is working in tandem with the diffluent right-entrance
region of a strengthening 250mb jet streak over the Red River of
the North to provide a favorable synoptic-scale environment for
upscale-growth of thunderstorms. A warm front has been lifting
north through northern Minnesota today and has already triggered
several intense thunderstorms close to the International Border.
Meanwhile, thunderstorms have formed along a surface trough in the
heart of the Dakotas that are tracking northeastward into a more
unstable environment. Dew points are in the low 70s within the
highlighted region with MLCAPE forecast by the RAP to surpass
3,000 J/kg and PWATs above 2.0". The PWATs are likely to be above
the 99.5 climatological percentile per ECMWF ENS guidance, and
warm cloud layers are exceptionally deep for the region. The ECMWF
ENS guidance also shows a >750 kg/m/s IVT over eastern South
Dakota that is aimed at northern Minnesota this evening, favoring
that area for the strongest moisture advection. By 00Z this
evening, RAP soundings for International Falls, MN show a melting
level near 15,000ft, which is nearly 6,000ft deeper than the 90th
percentile (~9,000ft) in the SPC sounding climatology. Lastly,
these storms will have modest vertical wind shear to keep these
storms organized, with higher storm relative helicity values
closer to the warm front over northern Minnesota.

These factors all support the potential for organized clusters of
storms that can produce exceptional rainfall rates that give
credence to a flash flood threat through this evening. As the
storms from the Dakotas approach into the more unstable and
sheared environment, storms over the Dakotas could merge with
developing storms along the surface trough. This should eventually
spawn a larger cold pool and become a more organized MCS this
evening. Rainfall totals ranging between 2-4" are anticipated from
eastern North Dakota and northern South Dakota on east to northern
Minnesota this afternoon. Areas long the Red River on east into
northern Minnesota have the better odds for localized amounts
topping 5" where they are more ideally placed closer to the warm
front and where the more persistent area of 850mb theta-e
advection is present. 1-hr FFGs are lowest along the Red River and
along the Minnesota's International Border with FFGs as low as
1.5" in some cases, although most areas along the Red River are as
low as 1.5" for 3-hr FFGs as well. Given these factors, flash
flooding is possible in impacted areas. Given it is the Fourth of
July, those enjoying outdoor festivities should be sure to have a
means of receiving any warnings issued this afternoon and evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_BIY8FshRA_V2vuu0erG8o4Dx_AbKPzT8M1CFxgflo9ogbmIoCMaq7CkfCdxLu-zxBJP= T2XosW9OgJeQpInVfCsFMpw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...DLH...FGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 49099548 48989467 48739403 48759326 48469242=20
47949270 47289413 46499574 45729688 45289728=20
44869797 44599893 44519977 44650032 44910055=20
45420052 46000022 47149905 47789833 48209769=20
48719696 48949645=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042012
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0589
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
411 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 042010Z - 050030Z

SUMMARY...Flash flooding looks to continue into the afternoon in
parts of the Hill Country as the MCV slowly moves north and east.
An additional 1-4" of rainfall is possible over the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...The MCV responsible for the destructive and fatal
flash flooding event in the Hill Country continues to inch its way
north and east this afternoon. The region remains mired in a
tropical air-mass that sports anywhere from 2.2-2.5" PWATs and
modest southerly 850mb theta-e advection continues to be funneled
out ahead of the MCV, wrapping around its western flank and into
Mason and Llano counties. While instability has decreased, there
remains a subtle 500-850mb mean troughing signal overhead. When
combined with MUCAPE values of 250-500 J/kg (per RAP
mesoanalysis), highly saturated soundings, deep warm cloud layers
(RAP soundings suggest up to 16,000ft), and no capping present,
the MCV will still be capable of triggering additional storms
around the western and southern flank of the MCV. Doppler Radar
shows thunderstorms over Mason County continue to produce
torrential downpours with MRMS 15-minute estimates approaching
0.5-1.0". While storms should gradually diminish this evening, the exceptionally sensitive soils will make any additional rainfall
unwelcome and likely result in additional flash flooding through
the remainder of the afternoon.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7sK1_Bo2P9MtB-01CKMiYg8FBtDUUG61a5Pc7B4uZqcWclScLuvXzXHeJ3J0ucal2KzG= Idx8BRjomY_yMo0MRjnIe1U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31639869 31369834 31339832 31069821 30759809=20
30479802 30229808 30119855 30059900 30149935=20
30509966 30909997 31279995 31529963 31619916=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 042235
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-050400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0590
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
634 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska...Southeast South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 042233Z - 050400Z

SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorms containing 1.5-2.0"/hr rainfall
rates may produce flash flooding this afternoon and evening,
especially in low-lying poor drainage areas and in more urbanized
communities.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler Radar show no
shortage of thunderstorms traversing central Nebraska this
afternoon. Storms are developing as far south as central Kansas as
an integrated vapor transport (IVT) topping 700 kg/m/s advects a
plentiful source of moisture northward. Storms are gradually
moving north and east into eastern Nebraska and southeast South
Dakota where RAP forecasts depict PWs between 1.75-2.0" and MLCAPE
between 1,000-2,000 J/kg with little to no capping present.
Focusing on the PWs, these PWs are topping the 99.5th
climatological percentile per NAEFS. Plus, RAP soundings within
the highlighted region sport low-mid level RH values averaging 90%
and warm cloud layers over 14,000ft deep, supporting warm rain
processes within these storms. There is also sufficient vertical
wind shear to sustain these segments of thunderstorms for several
more hours as they continue their northeast heading.

Much of the highlighted region is either in D0-D2 drought
conditions, so for most areas, this rainfall will be largely
beneficial. However, it is the concern for back-building
thunderstorms as the southerly IVT remains healthy into the
overnight hours to potentially allow for training, moisture-loaded thunderstorms in some cases. Flash flooding is possible this
afternoon and evening, especially in low-lying spots that drain
poorly and in communities with a greater concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-k4kdhtUlFFn39oxR8A-B7qKECOntLRvTsUe729osRk318BM1pT_c57saz4JqPjT77R3= QtGVWSrJjA5mq1k3IhLPucg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...GID...GLD...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 44499787 44469729 44279681 43929640 43639635=20
43079649 42399677 41669714 41069746 40639786=20
40249833 39669905 39479942 39320020 39440054=20
39900083 40540082 41120046 41749982 42299936=20
42869901 43409876 43889852 44379810=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050114
FFGMPD
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-050630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0591
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
914 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Areas affected...Northern Minnesota...Eastern South Dakota

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050115Z - 050630Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms containing up to 2"/hr rainfall rates
could result in additional areas of flash flooding this evening.

DISCUSSION...A congealing line of thunderstorms stretching from
just west of the Minnesota Arrowhead to as far south and west as
eastern South Dakota continues to track east. The heaviest
rainfall is occurring along and just south of a warm front that is
oriented parallel to the MN/Canada border. Meanwhile, outflow
boundaries out ahead of the approaching line of storms is helping
to force air parcels vertically while as much as 35-45kts of
effective bulk shear helps to sustain these thunderstorms
updrafts. The environment just west of the Arrowhead on south into
central MN remains unstable with as much as 1,000-2,000 J/kg at
these storms disposal. Most notably, the atmospheric moisture
content remains highly anomalous with the RAP showing a plume of
2" PWATs aloft thanks to a >750 kg/m/s IVT directing anomalous
moisture into the region via the Southern Plains.

Storms should generally remain transient on the southern periphery
of the highlighted area, but training thunderstorms across
northern MN are possible as storms from eastern SD head northeast
over the next few hours. Expect another 1-2" of rainfall within
the highlighted region tonight with localized amounts potentially
approaching 4" where the heaviest set of training convection takes
shape. The flash flooding persists this Fourth of July night in
northern Minnesota with lower-lying, poor drainage areas most
at-risk. Any instances of ponding or flash flooding will become
increasingly harder to identify on roadways after sunset.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8_DUosAi7kIaw7tU7xtPOxrUoDOrE7_Be2RKQDSBjjBYATpsHEKJvv6Lw_ngIX7no-hK= zBDpBXPxqZ1qqHKbOyP8H_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...DLH...FGF...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 48559265 48399174 48119135 47649168 47159253=20
47019271 46099393 45519449 44869550 44699674=20
44699745 45099755 45459737 46219668 46739597=20
47389505 48079399 48429331=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050538
FFGMPD
TXZ000-050935-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0592
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
138 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050537Z - 050935Z

SUMMARY...Localized heavy rainfall will be likely across portions
of central TX over the next 2-4 hours. Flash flooding will result
from rainfall rates in excess of 3 in/hr at times, especially if
heavy rain cores can edge eastward toward Austin/Round Rock and
the I-35 corridor.

DISCUSSION...0510Z radar imagery from KGRK showed a slow moving
thunderstorm in western Travis County with MRMS-derived hourly
rainfall of 4 to 5 inches and at least one gauge report from LCRA
of 4.98 inches per 60 minutes ending 0510Z near Largo Vista. This
cell appeared to be located just north of a remaining mesoscale
circulation just on the cool side of a remnant rain-cooled
boundary from Friday's rainfall combined with a trough/wind shift
axis that extended southwest to the Rio Grande across Webb County.
SPC mesoanalysis and 04Z RAP data valid at 05Z showed a stable
airmass across the Hill Country and northern TX while MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg resided along and southeast of I-35 from Austin
southward. 00Z soundings from DRT, FWD and CRP showed PW values at
or above the 90th percentile and tropical moisture was still in
place in the vicinity of an elongated low-mid level low which was
located over central TX.

S to SSE 850 mb winds of 10-20 kt are expected to continue
overnight with advection of weak instability back toward the
northwest and focused convergence near the remnant mesoscale
vortex. Weak deeper mean layer winds of 10 kt or less will favor
slow to nearly stationary movement of heavy rainfall with hourly
rainfall exceeding 3 inches at times. The duration of the core of
heaviest rainfall is uncertain, and it may begin to drift to the
northwest as the instability gradient pushes northwest over the
next couple of hours. However, present trends indicate near
stationary net movement with continued very high rainfall rates
continuing in the vicinity of western Travis/Williamson and
eastern Burnet counties.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!87mFxu6nHHQCCpP1tt7fYLNAnwSHTk2ekXwo0vui6NRuvm_8Sj-CylFvs40E7cMlMgBC= QBpXI4z5yijlSGBZdZW46j0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31769776 31619741 31219713 30789731 30409750=20
30069771 30039796 30249830 30689845 31489825=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050708
FFGMPD
MNZ000-IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-051215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0593
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...eastern NE into western IA, southern MN

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050707Z - 051215Z

Summary...Training of thunderstorms will result in rainfall rates
of 1-2 in/hr, with a localized threat for 2-4 inches of rain
through 12Z from eastern NE into western IA and southern MN.
Localized flash flooding may occur as a result of these heavy
rainfall totals.

Discussion...Area radar imagery through 0645Z showed an uptick in
the coverage of thunderstorms over portions of eastern NE over the
past 60-90 minutes. A subtle increase in 850 mb wind speeds toward
40 kt has coincided with the increase on convection. The storms
were located within an anomalous moisture axis (+2 to +3
standardized PW anomaly) which extended NNE through eastern NE
into western MN, just ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough axis
and on the trailing edge of a mid-level vort max over southwestern
MN. The storms were also located beneath the upper ridge axis
(increased diffluence) and within 500 to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE via 06Z
SPC mesoanalysis data.

Some further increase of thunderstorm coverage will be possible
over eastern NE into western IA through 09Z, ahead of the
advancing upper trough and to the east of a forward propagating
linear convective segment advancing into south-central NE. Mean
steering flow is from the SW at 20-30 kt, weaker than 850 mb winds
of a similar direction. This setup will pose a threat for SW to NE
training and brief backbuilding of cells as the entire convective
axis shifts eastward over the next 3-6 hours. Hourly rainfall of
1-2 inches and spotty 2-4 inch totals may result in localized
flash flooding.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8GkHF3HeC9htsDHJbb70Md6xpOLw0iv21lmLzztE-HVSqf_xLYzWqWH5KwIv3s9xdfMh= 5owOcvFE3_gB8QkZ7gBo2aM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...MPX...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 44759520 44489353 43589285 42429333 41369463=20
40879579 40749707 40809798 40989830 41389864=20
41749862 42539720 43409635=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050743
FFGMPD
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-051300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0594
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...eastern MN into northwestern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 050741Z - 051300Z

Summary...Isolated flash flood potential will exist from eastern
MN into northwestern WI through 13Z. Training of cells will
potentially allow for 1-2 in/hr rates and spotty 2-3 inch totals.

Discussion...Regional radar imagery at 0720Z showed a broken axis
of showers and thunderstorms that extended from the southern
Arrowhead region of MN into southwestern MN where a mid-level
vorticity max was located. These storms were located ahead of a
mid-level shortwave trough that extended from northern MN into
eastern SD within a weak instability axis of 500-1000 J/kg but
anomalously high PW values of 1.5 to 2.0 inches (via 07Z SPC
mesoanalysis data). Aloft, the region resided beneath an upper
level ridge axis which was allowing for locally enhanced
diffluence aloft.

The positively tilted mid-level trough axis will continue to
advance east this morning, and the vorticity max located over
southwestern MN should follow northeastward within the
southwesterly flow aloft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
advance eastward through eastern MN into northwestern WI over the
next few hours with occasional bursts in convective activity.
While no significant changes in the weak instability environment
are forecast, the high PW environment may support brief but
intense rainfall rates. Mean southwesterly winds will carry the
potential for localized training which could support rainfall
rates of 1-2 in/hr and perhaps an isolated spot or two of 2-3
inches through 13Z. Isolated flash flooding may occur as a result,
with better potential existing where overlap of low lying or urban
environments occurs.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_k73ZV96RjxmfBBOX5xcJcwHuPmzf8008Na_iPzmxihn4zL1-fZxqFDxizwBBooOreZ3= pv-OhUIhvZMMcIFu-jzZ5LA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DLH...MPX...MQT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 47519042 46848999 45519097 44419184 44009287=20
44179443 45149490 46349423 47489197=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 050937
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0595
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
536 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 050935Z - 051305Z

SUMMARY...The potential for locally catastrophic flash flooding is
expected to continue over the next few hours over central TX,
extending through sunrise. Extreme hourly rainfall near and in
excess of 4 to 5 inches can be expected at times. Dangerous /
life-threatening flash flooding is already occurring and will
continue for at least another 2-4 hours.

DISCUSSION...0915Z radar imagery showed that a small cluster of
heavy rain continued to affect central TX, with the highest
rainfall intensities over western Williamson and eastern Burnet
counties. Gauge data from the Lower Colorado River Authority
(LCRA) showed a 10.34 inch total in 3 hours ending 0910Z, 8 miles
SSW of Betram as recent trends in radar imagery have shown the
heaviest rainfall intensities shifting northward compared to a few
hours ago. This northward shift appears to be tied to a northward
translation of a west-east oriented instability gradient that
bisected the small convective cluster. Latent heat release within
the thunderstorm cluster has reinvigorated a mesoscale vortex
which was located along the Burnet/Williamson county line and has
been allowing for the development of new updrafts to its immediate
north, following 20-30 kt of southerly 925-850 mb winds within the
anomalous PW environment (2.0 to 2.2 inches per 09Z SPC
mesoanalysis data).

Some continued northward development is expected over the next 2-4
hours, although the core of the heaviest rain near the MCV is
likely to remain farther south. While there is some uncertainty in
the duration of the heaviest rainfall with RAP forecasts of
925-850 mb winds shifting east and weakening through 13Z,
continued very high rainfall rates of 3 to 5+ inches in an hour
are expected to persist for another 1-3 hours with additional
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches possible on top of an already saturated
and flooded region just west of I-35. These rains are likely to
continue threats for locally catastrophic flooding across a small
region of central TX through at least 12Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4bohymefUInPxbMZSK59nGfEIOWsFTzlJ2-ZX9rZtXkbig2gITXC98oeAONPbVu6htLw= pUK6oEsjhZNURO0QJlQ3AwQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32449795 32349756 31969740 31059754 30429784=20
30359821 30599847 31019866 31549866 32099853=20
32359819=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051317
FFGMPD
TXZ000-051900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0596
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
917 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Western portion of Texas Triangle...Eastern Hill
Country...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051315Z - 051900Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms linger on periphery of dying
MCS. Highly efficient with rates of 2-3"/hr possible and slow
motions will likely continue to pose a flash flooding risk in
vicinity. Localized spots of 3-5"

DISCUSSION...The dying MCC remains in a mid to upper level col
though shearing toward the north into northern TX has been noted,
while further elongation appears to be occurring to the south as
well. CIRA LPW shows core of deep layer moisture resides in the
surface to 850mb layer across the southern and eastern sides of
the cyclone, though 850 and aloft the deep layer moisture has
shifted toward the central TX coast and due northward. As such,
extreme total PWat values up to 2.5" exist in the southeast
quadrant of the cyclone in proximity to I-10 in the northern
coastal Plain east of Austin. VWP and RAP analysis shows this is
the greatest moisture flux with 25-30kts of southerly 850-700mb
flow skirting the eastern side and becoming increasingly
convergent across the northern Triangle north of Waco toward
Cleburne toward the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. Due to the very
high theta-E near the surface, even 6C/km lapse rates remain still
left of the parcel; narrow skinny/unstable profiles support
1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE for any cells to strengthen. As such,
low level convergence along the eastern side of the dying MCS has
two major clusters along the northeast quadrant and the southeast
quadrant. Rates of 2-3"/hr should be common with updrafts, though
peak intensity.=20

Aloft, the diffluent portion of the upper-level jet is dropping
southward slowly and is currently enhancing convection in the
northern Coastal Plain in the southeast quadrant given the 30-40kt
exiting jet streak heading south and southwest around the building
ridge over W TX. However, weak divergence/diffluence aloft remain
modest across northeast TX as well though winds are lighter.=20
However, this slower flow will allow for greater duration as cell
motions remain below 5/10kts in the col in the northeast. This
may allow for a few hours of compounding totals with
focused/localized totals of 3-5" possible, likely to induce
additional flash flooding concerns.

Hi-Res CAMs help to suggest that storms could move back northwest
and west to affect areas most recently affected across the Middle
Colorado River, but loss of instability/heating and weak steering
flow make this seem more aggressive that observational trends
show, however, this reduces confidence toward overall evolution
and the area with significant ongoing flooding in the Colorado
Basin may have some additional rainfall to further compound
flooding concerns in the next 4-6hrs.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8Z8ZOY13jdCMEA9w11XTz9fSoNEte1wK9-6FHVz6FeCspRL1vbnBmBnAqr4VwhtNH5lh= GA2HViFt6S8EpIsEV-h3XZM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32909811 32669708 31899668 30929665 30129672=20
29449704 29029732 28819795 28989854 30499839=20
30969839 32279867=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 051943
FFGMPD
TXZ000-060100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0597
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
342 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 051940Z - 060100Z

SUMMARY...Additional thunderstorms containing prolific rainfall
rates up to 3"/hr are expected this afternoon in parts of the
Texas Hill Country. Any additional rainfall will likely exacerbate
ongoing flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-19 visible imagery and Doppler Radar continues
to paint a messy picture of lingering thunderstorms over Burnet
county and points east to the I-35 corridor north of Austin.
Visible imagery shows that the bulk of the cloud cover and
residual showers are on the southern and eastern flank of the MCV.
While this is helping to reduce instability on those flanks,
visible satellite imagery also show modest surface-based heating
on the western flank of the MCV, including in Mason and LLano
counties. 3-hr RTMA shows theta-e increases and MLCAPE rising >800
J/kg during this same time. There remains a healthy surge of
low-level moisture out of the western Gulf with tropical PWATs
ranging between 2-2.5".

The 18Z HRRR is showing back-building convection into the western
portion of the highlighted region over the next few hours. Area
averaged soundings over Mason/Llano counties show veering winds at
low-levels with >2,000 MLCAPE available, PWATs >2.0", and warm
cloud layer wind speeds <10 kts. RAP soundings also show warm
cloud layers remains over 14,000ft deep for much of the region and
low-mid level relative humidity levels are averaging ~90%. These
slow motions, particularly near MCV, will result in
self-sustaining thunderstorms that continue to produce prolific
rainfall rates this afternoon. This is evident in the storms in
southern Burnet county where MRMS 15-minute estimated rainfall
rates have approached 1.0" in some cases, implying hourly rates as
high as 4" are still possible in the more robust cells. Soils in
these areas will struggle to handle 1"/hr rainfall rates, let 15
minute rainfall rates approaching 1". Note that eastern areas will
still contend with storms, but the swath of heaviest rainfall
should start to shift to the western flank of the MCV.

These storms and their prolific rainfall rates within the more
intense storms will continue to exacerbate ongoing flooding within
the region, as well as any ongoing cleanup and search/rescue
efforts. Additional significant to life-threatening flash flooding
is anticipated this afternoon. Storms should diminish later this
evening as storms eat away at the available instability and the
MCV gradually weakens.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8hzCUL7MEoj4fl8QgQV-Zl1H12qToVUjHQE9ykvT3udeJzLajYjBj5cknoU9zGSpnyjC= dCJMSkGBh-zKVJpEAkGjzto$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31659890 31489768 31389735 30929702 30409702=20
29729736 29379823 29549881 29929912 30409987=20
31369983=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 052236
FFGMPD
AZZ000-060300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0598
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
635 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Arizona

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 052230Z - 060300Z

SUMMARY...Scattered heavy thunderstorms producing up to 1.5"/hr
rainfall rates may cause additional areas of flash flooding this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have broken out across southeast
Arizona thanks to a sheared off 500mb vorticity and remnant
moisture associated with Flossie. 500mb winds are oriented out of
the SW and are aiding in some upslope-enhancement along the ridge
lines of southeast Arizona and northern Sonora. Modest instability
is present with RAP mesoanalysis showing as much as 1,000-2,000
J/kg of SBCAPE. There is also sufficient moisture in place for
storms to be effective rainfall producers, thanks to the remnant
moisture of Flossie boosting PWs to as high as 1.3-1.5". Storms
will continue to produce locally excessive rainfall rates up to
1.5"/hr in some cases. Even if rainfall rates are closer to 1"/hr,
this is generally close to the 1-hr FFGs and any training along
local mountain ranges could cause some rainfall amounts to range
between 2-3". Storms should dissipate not too long after sunset,
but until then, additional flash flooding is possible for the
remainder of the afternoon. Areas most at risk are along
rugged/steep terrain and in dry washes.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5C60p9w6pmITBiwXicoNFZNZZsXX_WUWFxzBURXT25_sWhIoXR9gg3bld4iyERoirXrq= weS87yKyECbQxZrnLtjQWQ0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

ATTN...RFC...STR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32860995 32570943 32040916 31380926 31160968=20
31151028 31181109 31341183 31821198 32261169=20
32751085=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060603
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-061200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0599
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
203 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...coast of northern SC/southern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 060602Z - 061200Z

SUMMARY...Heavy rain and localized flash flooding will be possible
across coastal locations of the Carolinas as T.S. Chantal
approaches the northern SC coast tonight. Rainfall rates from 1 to
3 in/hr will be possible along with localized 2-4 inch totals
through 12Z.

DISCUSSION...T.S. Chantal was located about 35 miles SSE of Myrtle
Beach, SC via the latest NHC advisory from 06Z and was moving
toward the NNW at 7 kt. Recent GOES East infrared satellite
imagery showed the bulk of convection located in its front-right
quadrant due to a combination of southerly shear and dry air south
of the surface circulation as noted on layered PW imagery. After a
burst in colder cloud tops contained within the CDO from late
Saturday evening into the early overnight, there has been some
minor warming of cloud tops since 05Z from the center of the CDO
but recent cooling to the northeast. Local radar imagery from KTLX
showed outer bands moving across the northern SC and southern NC
coast along with a core of slower moving heavy rain about 25 miles
southeast of Myrtle Beach. A curved rain band was becoming better
defined to the south of Cape Fear as Chantal's CDO edges closer to
the coast, tied to the recent cloud top cooling northeast of the
CDO.

Increasing rounds of steady heavy rain associated with Chantal are
expected to begin moving onshore near the SC/NC border over the
next 1-3 hours with increasing potential for 1-2 inches of rain in
30-60 minutes. Rain rates, perhaps as high as 2-3 in/hr, will be
possible with slow movement of Chantal's inner core and/or with
training from spiral banding to the northeast of the CDO as
banding interacts with the coast.

While only a small section of southern NC has received above
average rainfall over the past week, the rest of the region has
been relatively dry and therefore, much of the Coastal Plain of
northern SC/southern NC has relatively high flash flood guidance
values of 3+ inches in 3 hours. Given antecedent conditions, flash
flood potential due to incoming rounds of heavy rainfall appears
most likely across urban locations within the Coastal Plain from
Myrtle Beach to Wilmington, where potential for 2 to 4 inches of
rain will exist through ~12Z.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!95YdfjZTTcveJSr_lOnlVxzXNfMaMQIJIDZdH377H-Hdlv2_42yJ4Euod24yZOJ5P-nP= CuxxIhoVK3Yr9Z9geIYN3_4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34927824 34927783 34667737 34407730 34097742=20
33727777 33317850 33097903 33177936 33757957=20
34297935 34777874=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 060720
FFGMPD
TXZ000-061115-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0600
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...west-central to central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 060717Z - 061115Z

Summary...Localized to widely scattered, small scale regions of
heavy rain are expected to generate localized flash flooding over
the next 3-4 hours from west-central to central TX. Hourly
rainfall of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, overlapping with
portions of the region that have sensitive/saturated soils due to
recent heavy rainfall. However, coverage and organization of this
heavy rainfall threat remains uncertain through 11Z.

Discussion...07Z GOES East 10.3 micron imagery showed a few widely
scattered showers/thunderstorms from west-central TX across the
Edwards Plateau to north-central TX, to the southwest of Fort
Worth. The cyclonic swirl of a remnant low to mid level low was
evident in satellite imagery, centered about 70 miles WSW of Fort
Worth where a thunderstorm containing -40 to -50 C cloud tops was
located. According to SPC mesoanalysis data from 07Z, this cell
was located along a MLCAPE gradient oriented fron north to south
with little to no instability over the eastern third of TX and 500
to 2000 J/kG to the west with varying degrees of CIN present
within. PW values remained high (2+ inches) in a SSW to NNE
orientation, extending from the lower Rio Grande Valley into the
DFW Metroplex, but PW values dropped off to the east and west of
this axis.

With mean southerly low level flow in place over west-central to
east-central TX at 15-25 kt, some degree of overrunning of
Saturday's rain-cooled air over central TX was occurring with
showers forming near a weak elevated convergence axis located
around 850 mb. While the degree of organization of heavy over the
next 3-4 hours is uncertain, deeper layer mean winds are weak,
with the weakest/slowest cell potential near I-35 with LFC-EL mean
wind values of ~5 kt or less. An increase in the coverage of showers/thunderstorms will is expected over the next few hours
with slow movement supporting very high rainfall rates that have
the potential to reach 2 to 4 inches (locally higher cannot be
ruled out). Given recent heavy rain that has impacted portions of
this region of TX over the past couple of days, renewed areas of
flash flooding are expected, although coverage is expected to
remain limited at this time.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8lFML3QHCZa6rGUE6Bmlrzo-4GUFO72KlQabGUpoF0G4SwV8ovEVMmCIEuLkxO-BvicF= s2c7D9sSs_BL7UGr0wLJ3Xg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32939795 32639735 32069725 30879753 30059857=20
30000005 30180099 30560152 30900165 31210161=20
31580142 31700085 31770041 31939984 32329915=20
32739855=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061102
FFGMPD
TXZ000-061630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0601
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
701 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...central to north-central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061100Z - 061630Z

SUMMARY...A likely but localized flash flood threat will focus
across portions of central to north-central TX through 16Z. Hourly
rainfall of 1 to 3+ in/hr and spotty 3 to 6 inch rainfall totals
are expected. Overlap of additional heavy rain areas with
sensitive/saturated soils due to recent heavy rainfall will
increase potential for renewed flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional radar imagery through 1030Z showed that
showers and thunderstorms continued to expand to the southwest of
Fort Worth and into portions of the Edwards Plateau. MRMS-derived
rain rates were locally over 2 in/hr between Granbury and Meridan
and were increasing toward 2 in/hr over Mason County. A
north-south elongated 700 mb low/trough was located between Fort
Worth and Abilene, co-located with PW values between 2.0 and 2.2
inches per 10Z SPC mesoanalysis data. SPC mesoanalysis data also
showed the area of storms southwest of Fort Worth was along a
north-south oriented instability gradient, with little to no CAPE
over the eastern third of TX with 1000-2000 J/kg to the west.
Meanwhile, 925-850 mb winds were parallel to I-35 between San
Antonio and Dallas-Fort Worth, while these winds were veered to
the west across the Edwards Plateau and Rolling Plains regions,
allowing for confluent flow to the west of I-35. Weak deeper layer
steering flow and the relatively stronger low level inflow layer
will set the stage for potential training and back-building of
cells.

Given the environment in place, potential for slow moving cores of
heavy rain, peak hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches will be
possible along with higher end totals in the 3 to 6 inch range
over the next 6 hours. Overlap of these higher rainfall totals
with portions of central TX that received heavy rainfall over the
past 72 hours will increase the threat of flash flooding. However,
these higher end totals should be fairly low in coverage. So
therefore, while flash flooding is considered likely over the next
several hours, coverage is expected to remain rather isolated.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4TOAoKRzMWOPk6h4MuQN2V5pSVXcXdreKE9R4bM75zL2kQz7mq7dady3ChruKI_gN5-Z= xskqUuLjIgkYhPGdG0nvSrQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33169754 32579723 31499731 30399791 29749868=20
29699954 30189988 30909965 31829927 32519877=20
33169824=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061200
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-061800-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0602
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
800 AM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...E & SE North Carolina...Ext. E South Carolina...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061200Z - 061800Z

SUMMARY...T.S. Chantal

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/IR animation shows a small but still
compact circulation to T.S. Chantal with a central dense overcast
(CDO) cluster of thunderstorms straddling the eastern NC/SC border
as it continues just north of northwest track. This CDO is
expected to maintain given fairly solid vertical depth to the
cyclone with at least 4-6 more hours before asymmetries evolve due
to increased vertical shear profile. Deep layer moisture over
2.5" and strong 30-40kt moisture convergence will continue to
support very efficient rainfall processes with 2-2.5"/hr rates
across much of the core. Given slow translation speeds, spots of
3-5" are possible in/near the core.=20

A solid banding feature continues to burst with similar cold
overshooting tops to -65C though those cores are a bit more
transient through the banding feature. Strong confluent inflow
along the band in proximity to the Gulf Stream continues to
support strong back-building environment in the near term, as such
short-term training is possible through Onslow county. However,
the dry slot rotating around the southern to southeastern quadrant
is starting to impinge on the band, mix and aid northward
propagation to reduce local duration of the band. So while
intense, the duration should be much less than areas near the CDO
and streaks of 1-3" are possible likely limiting flash flooding to
urban/poor drainage areas overwhelmed by the shear short-term
intensity of the banding features unless that back-building
short-term training is ideal but that would be very widely
scattered/isolated in nature.

Toward 16-18z, the solid warm air advection (WAA) across the
coastal plain of NC along with the wrapping dry slot will result
into increased elongation of the deeper layer circulation and
should result in a slowing of speed, but also a sharpening of a
northward trending convergence boundary near the NC/SC 'corner' of Scotland/Marlboro counties. This convergence band will be slow to
drift further west and the CDO should break down and expand
northward along this axis, increasing rainfall totals and
potential for 3-4" totals by 18z.

Hydrologically, naturally sandy soils that have been fairly dry
with relative soil moisture ratios below 40% and running in the
20-40th percentile for dryness, should uptake much of the rain
(with exception of impermeable urban settings) with hourly FFG
values of 2-3" and 3-4"/3hrs; only the most persistent/intense
rainfall areas are at risk of flash/rapid inundation flooding.=20
Still, a few widely scattered incidents of flash flooding will
remain possible through the morning hours most likely near the
CDO.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6wO-pMq0tnoyDjNVt-HI5jczodIfk7nS5rOxkW_JCvgp62ix0zsuQIVEi-h8D1rzX8MT= JNExXIYuq_t2hZhK6XhMeTw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35977784 35667662 35067578 34577621 34447684=20
34427787 34247845 34087893 33977935 34257978=20
34798004 35397977 35897896=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061616
FFGMPD
TXZ000-062200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0603
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1215 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Northern & Central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 061615Z - 062200Z

SUMMARY...Stubborn mid-level circulation and remaining tropical
moisture plume.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite shows favorable upper-level pattern
is breaking down a bit as 40-50kt jet streak and entrance region
shifts southward into central and southern TX with amplifying mid
to upper-level ridge across the Permian Basin sliding southeast
into the Big Country. As such, very favorable outflow regime is
diminishing in influence and expected to slide. A highly
stretched/sheared dryier axis exists across far E TX/LA;
corralling the remaining (but reducing) overall deep layer
moisture plume from the Red River Valley generally along I-35 and
westward through the eastern Hill country with values of 2-2.25"
remaining though mainly along the southeast quadrant of a
persistent/stubborm mid-level circulation centered near Palo Pinto
county. The core of the deep layer moisture has seen a recent
rapid exhaustion of instability with the ongoing convective cores
that are erroding from Tarrent to Bosque county.

Surface, VWP and visible imagery analysis shows a convergence axis
of the western gradient of the deeper layer mositure from a weak
surface low near K6P9 back west across the Edwards Plateau from
Callahan to Coke to Sterling county. Here, full insolation is
providing surface heating for narrow, skinny unstalbe profiles up
to 2000 J/kg; southwesterly to southerly flow along a pressure
trof from the low to JCT is providing the convergence necessary
for newer development. Rainfall efficiency will continue to be an
issue with 2-2.5"/hr probable. However, given the shift of the
favorable outflow aloft and stronger southerly inflow, propagation
is likey to press cells south and westward toward the Hill
Country, but given motion, more than likely limit duration at any
given location to scattered 1-3" totals. Still, remaining
sensitive soils and rapid run off still may result in possible
localized flash flooding conditions.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hmIdQpS6k6OVWvSMUAGE5uhIhI47NKh8G5l2yOiFSaQp6wJeXbBwzBHEP1rLwbljxut= JMESAa5Kmq7pnWwbaIPvw_Q$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 33329763 32969728 32109711 31259736 30519817=20
30589966 31000023 31700038 32109983 32369933=20
32629884 32879844 33179827=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 061754
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-070000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0604
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
153 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Central North Carolina... Far South-central
Virginia...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 061800Z - 070000Z

SUMMARY...Tropical Depression Chantal. Prolonged moderate
rainfall with training core of intense rainfall of 2-3"/hr
possible. Localized 3-6" and flash flooding likely.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E satellite suite shows classic vertical tilting
of the deep circulation of Chantal with broad surface/boundary
layer circulation becoming exposed along the southern and
southeastern side of the remaining strong convective core of
thunderstorms near Scotland/Richmond county expanding downshear (north-northeastward) into Moore/Lee counties. Upper-level speed
max is starting to increase connect up with the northern stream
main jet stream flow across the central Applachians; further
expanding downstream outflow aloft. In doing so the mid to low
level circulation will continue to expand and elongate through a
deformation and low level convergence trough axis that can be seen
starting to become active with scattered showers from Orange to
Durham to Granville county area. Broad southeasterly to easterly
confluent 850-700mb 30-35kt flow slows and veers more northward
along this axis providing very strong moisture flux convergence
along it.

Cells will start with .5-1"/hr rates but increase as the
convective core lifts north, effectively training/repeating
through this same axis. Given deepest moisture of 2.5-2.75" of
total PWats and strongest speed/directional convergence with the
850-700mb cyclone center will support initially 3"/hr rates slowly
reducing toward 2-2.5" toward 00z. So prolonged moderate rainfall
amplifying to these higher rates will result in spotty 1-2" and
saturating wet grounds in advance of the intense rainfall; likely
limiting infiltration. Additional 2-4" totals along the
convergence zone results in an axis of 3-6" through 00z. This
will likely result in flash flooding/rapid inundation conditions
along this narrow training corridor. Current trends suggest axis
is likely across Moore to Chatham to Allamance and may split
Greensboro and Raleigh metro areas, but small deviations of the
axis (more probable eastaward) would result in a growing concern
for considerable/significant flooding incidents due to urban
impermeable surfaces near those metro areas (incl.
Durham/Apex/Chapel Hill).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6zTma3Rax4MNsSJ6rGKMHSxRTTT3ARAIkUD4LsGkKLmbOYJXAuvWOjrqUxrQh6mC33Xj= kGVBO8UknSTb2bMMSy-WcMc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36837859 36797809 36397792 36137811 35767841=20
35207884 34887937 34997990 35577996 36127964=20
36437935 36707898=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062019
FFGMPD
TXZ000-070200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0605
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
418 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...South Central Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062020Z - 070200Z

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms are likely to contain torrential
downpours over sensitive soils across parts of the Texas Hill
Country. Flash flooding is possible this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...The air-mass across the Texas Hill Country continues
to support tropical and pulse-like thunderstorms this afternoon.
RAP mesoanalysis shows as much as 1,500-2,000 J/kg of MLCAPE and
PWATs that range between 2.0-2.25". Unlike the past 48-hours,
there is not as much upper-level support in south central Texas to
organize most of these developing storms, making them shorter
lived in duration. However, storms will likely produce outflows
that can kick-start additional storms with little to no capping
present throughout the region. 18Z RAP soundings near the San
Antonio and Austin metro areas do support warm cloud layers nearly
13,000ft deep and low-mid level averaged relative humidity values
above 85%. These parameters continue to support efficient warm
rain processes, evident by MRMS 15-minute radar estimated rainfall
rates approaching 0.50" north of Fredericksburg and northwest of
Liberty Hill. This suggests, should storms be sustained long
enough to eclipse 1-hr in duration, there could be cases where
2"/hr rainfall rates are met and 1-hr FFGs remain <2" along and
west of I-35.

0-40cm soil moisture percentiles according to NASA SPoRT-LIS show
anywhere from San Antonio on north sports at least 80% soil
saturation. These storms should be more pulse-like in nature, but
given the soil sensitivities in the area, there is the potential
for as much as 2-3" of rainfall (local amounts up to 4") in areas
that do not need any more rainfall. Flash flooding is possible
once again this afternoon. Thunderstorms should dissipate in
coverage after sunset thanks to the loss of daytime heating.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7AA_xElWswOSkpeQP7Bpcmupj2ezhGoAkjibWu4pL1-usFLSnTt4HYKD5UgYc2qU8Hwv= 4_pcbsbXQmYFPs4LgFzQ2DU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 30869817 30779768 30559729 29939706 29209787=20
29079876 29089937 29230003 29430039 29700052=20
30180033 30469988 30689896=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 062125
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-KSZ000-070300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0606
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
524 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Southeast KS...Southern MO...Southern IL

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 062120Z - 070300Z

SUMMARY...Repeating thunderstorms training over select portions of
the region could cause flash flooding through this evening.

DISCUSSION...A cold front approaching from the north is helping to
trigger storms just ahead of the front, while strong surface-based
heating and emanating outflows from pre-frontal storms are likely
to ignite more storms this afternoon. RAP mesoanalysis shows there
is an abundance of moisture available from southeast Kansas to as
far east as southern Illinois as PWATs are between 1.9-2.2", which
are above the 90th climatological percentile for early July. The
atmosphere, as depicted on GOES-19 satellite imagery and Doppler
Radar, is quite unstable with MLCAPE values surpassing 2,000 J/kg
for the vast majority of the highlighted region. The mean
850-300mb wind flow is generally progressive with 10-15 knot winds
averaged through the depth of the column, but there remains a
steady fetch of southerly 850mb flow over the ArkLaTex that is
feeding anomalous moisture into the region ahead of the cold
front. With the added help of a passing 500mb vort max, there
remains enough forcing at low-levels and upper-levels to support
additional thunderstorms for the remainder of the afternoon and
into this evening.

MRMS 15-minute radar estimates suggests storms are producing up to
0.50" of rainfall in that span, equating to near 2"/hr rainfall
rates. Most of the region's soils are generally able to handle
rates just below that, but anything over 2" (particuarly in
southern Missouri where soil moisture anomalies are >80% in some
areas), poses a flash flood threat. Given the numerous
thunderstorms throughout the region, some places may receive 2-4"
or rainfall from seeing multiple rounds of storms this afternoon.
Flash flooding is possible, particularly in poor drainage spots
and in urbanized communities sporting a greater concentration of
hydrophobic surfaces.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-YHDbFiv9-o5mkq5KoZrZs0OdreC3xfLM1YkH4-VS0kROIbjehkAPsN2KkVGmMEoEfdX= 1PdOQguloregCDVPhWq49MI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ICT...ILX...LSX...PAH...SGF...TOP...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39908866 39838792 39368766 38268816 37628893=20
37089011 36799097 36679306 37019412 37119515=20
37269687 37819725 38199688 38389608 38719391=20
39079282 39549104 39679000 39818937=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070007
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-070500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0607
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
807 PM EDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Areas affected...Southern VA...Northern NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 070000Z - 070500Z

SUMMARY...Chantal continues to produce Excessive Rainfall rates in
excess of 2"/hr as it slowly tracks northeastward this evening.
Additional flash flooding is likely with the potential for
life-threatening impacts in affected areas.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms associated with Chantal are more
aligned with the storm's mid-level circulation as the surface
circulation remains farther south, or just north of Fayetteville.
Doppler Radar showed the core of heaviest rainfall occurring from
Chapel Hill and the western suburbs of Durham on west along I-40
and just east of Greensboro. Latest guidance shows Chantal slowly
inching its way northeast this evening while still maintaining the
heaviest rainfall north and west of Chantal's low-mid level
circulation. Along its path, PWATs are over 2.0" and in some cases
approaching 2.4" according to RAP mesoanalysis. RAP soundings
within the core of heaviest rainfall depict classic warm rain
processes that exist within the core of a tropical cyclone: skinny
CAPE aloft (between 250-750 J/kg MUCAPE), > 90% sounding
saturation nearly all the way to the tropopause, and warm cloud
layers nearly 16,000ft deep. This is likely to remain the case as
Chantal moves north and east this evening.

Recent observations show as much as 2.6" in one hour have fallen
just southwest of Durham with the storm only inching its way
northeast at the moment. The storm should continue to gradually
weaken along its track, but when taking area-averaged soundings
around the Chantal using the HAFS-A model, steering flow within
the 300-850mb layer at 06Z tonight was SW at ~10 kts. Meanwhile,
the storm will still maintain a healthy SErly IVT that wraps
around the storm and along its western flank. Latest 18Z HREF does
show the gradually diminishing precipitation rates as the night
progresses, but the highly saturated profiles combined with
lingering MUCAPE and its slow progression makes flash flooding a
big concern from north-central NC to south-central VA tonight.
Over the past 6-hours, portions of central North Carolina have
seen anywhere from 2-5" of rainfall with localized totals topping
7". Expect similar totals once again over the next 6 hours from
the western suburbs of the Raleigh-Durham metro area on north into
far south-central VA. Significant to life-threatening flooding
impacts within its narrow corridor of heaviest rainfall is likely
this evening.

Mullinax

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5drWCsuVAqPTmXDIy4JloDPZsxRv94piSGl5o6KI3nsYxoEyXt8A-MdMex1Us5yGplTC= DYv97gKNYKLesfZBUhuQeH0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37017881 37007850 36847821 36547832 36137860=20
35677888 35547920 35667951 35917964 36197962=20
36657939 36897915=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 070435
FFGMPD
TXZ000-070900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0608
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1235 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...parts of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 070434Z - 070900Z

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase across portions
of central TX over the next few hours with areas of slow movement
and locally heavy rainfall. Localized hourly rainfall in the 1 to
3 inch range is expected, possibly leading to isolated flash flood
concerns across the region.

DISCUSSION...Local radar imagery across central TX appeared to be
showing the beginning stages of renewed shower/thunderstorm
development as of 04Z just east of I-35 from Austin to Jarrell.
GOES East infrared imagery helped place a remnant MCV in the
vicinity of Llano County, embedded within broader cyclonic flow
tied to an elongated 700 mb low/trough that has been lingering
over central TX, evident on 700 mb VAD wind plots. At the surface,
a remnant rain-cooled outflow boundary was analyzed from just
southeast of LHB to near BAZ and southwest to COT. Since 00Z,
increased 925-850 mb wind speeds of 15-25 kt at KGRK and KEWX
match RAP depictions of winds in this layer, which has helped to
support an northward increase in MLCAPE past I-10 into portions of
central TX. SPC mesoanalysis data from 04Z showed a plume of 1000
to 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE nosing northward from the middle TX coast
into the I-35 corridor between San Antonio and Dallas/Fort Worth
containing little to no inhibition.

RAP forecasts indicate 925-850 mb winds are near their peak in the
short term, with slight weakening over the east and westward
translation of relatively stronger wind speeds toward 09Z.
However, the circulation around the remnant MCV and presence of
the outflow boundary and overrunning potential within the high PW
environment (2.0 to 2.3 inches via SPC mesoanalysis data) is
expected to continue to support scattered shower and thunderstorm
development over the next few hours. Weak steering flow and the
relatively stronger low level flow will support the potential for
training and back-building of cells. While the coverage of these
cells remains a bit uncertain, the environment will be capable of
generating 1-3 in/hr rainfall totals. Given the continuing
sensitivity of soils across portions of the region, renewed flash
flood concerns through 09Z appear possible.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-Oax3ELJFf2URWGzPpp_XFZ3KFiak_ywVyZLeak6zYPvtTw9XK9CM6JsaeAcbhXccxdA= 4QpHPQrXjwNBgAaBh88XvIs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31739711 31279664 30439657 29439708 28919834=20
28899895 29159973 29749994 30319974 30649943=20
31089860 31429816=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071154
FFGMPD
TXZ000-071650-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0610
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
753 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...portions of central TX

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071150Z - 071650Z

SUMMARY...Localized flash flooding remains possible this morning
for portions of central TX. The potential for hourly rainfall of
1-3 inches will exist, but mostly isolated in nature within widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION...Recent radar and GOES19 IR satellite imagery shows
developing showers and thunderstorms this morning across central
TX within the vicinity of a sheared out remnant MCV. This MCV from
Sunday afternoon has become rather difficult to find in satellite
imagery as of 11Z. Extrapolating known placement from earlier, it
is perhaps in the vicinity of Fredericksburg but it has lost the
origination it contained earlier. In addition, a diffuse outflow
boundary remained from near LHB to just west of SAT and then
southwestward toward the middle Rio Grande Valley. Both of these
features may not play a significant role in the future convective
evolution over central TX but they are features to note
nonetheless. The long-lived 700 mb low/trough over central TX has
become more elongated and is forecast to slowly shift west during
the morning hours. This is expected to encourage the minor
expansion of weak low level southerly flow into the Edwards
Plateau and remaining portions of central TX. With the onset of
daytime heating through existing cloud cover, erosion of low level
convective inhibition is expected to allow for the further
development of shower and thunderstorms across portions of central
TX.

Weak deeper layer winds (weak steering flow) will support locally
heavy rain with potential for back-building and brief training of
cells. The high PW environment (near 2 inches), will be capable of
producing 1 to 3 inch hourly rainfall totals in a widely scattered
fashion across the region. Remaining sensitivity of near saturated
grounds across the region could allow for a couple of areas of
flash flooding through about 17Z. Recent 10Z HRRR seems to be
under-forecasting current activity, so it is worth watching radar
trends should convection become even more widespread given the
weak steering flow currently in place this morning.

Snell/Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9PRYUqY_aYEO19sV2Arpd43xH9exLcrfseYKHaTqOaTsoIdEKqQtqjxtdbjylKk01lbZ= fvXWC_SMCjMUYXiyZBpWrCw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32189859 32059761 31499726 30689743 29779799=20
29289875 29329954 29829994 30649987 31669939=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071355
FFGMPD
TXZ000-071955-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0611
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Hill Country

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071355Z - 071955Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving thunderstorms producing local rainfall rates
over 3"/hr are ongoing and expected to continue through early this
afternoon. Some significant instances of flash flooding are
possible, especially given the sensitive flood-prone terrain of
central TX.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite imagery highlight strengthening
thunderstorms oriented along a strung-out 700 mb trough in a
west-southwest to east-northeast direction. MRMS estimates hourly
rainfall rates just west of Killeen over 3"/hr, with a HADS
observation (supprted by surrounding obs) recording 4.2" in 3
hours by 1330Z.

The same highly moist and unstable environment remains over
central TX, with mean layer flow generally less than 5 kts.
However, upwind propagation vectors remain out of the
north-northeast which supports back-building through this
afternoon. MLCAPE remains elevated in the 1000-1500 J/kg range and
will increase throughout the day due to the combination of
southerly flow out of the western Gulf and diurnal heating. This
setup supports the continuing threat of slow-moving thunderstorms
producing 2-3"+ hourly rates, with scattered flash flooding
likely. Significant flash flooding is also possible where any
mesoscale circulations develop within thunderstorms and can stall
these extreme rainfall rates over a region for a few hours (like
what was seen west of Killeen). Locally, rainfall totals may
exceed 5" within these intense thunderstorms.

1-hr FFG across the sensitive soils of central TX are generally
below 2" and as low as 1" locally. The 12z HRRR depicts convection
eventually migrating westward, probably under the influence of the
700 mb trough tilting west-east and lifting north. So, while the
ongoing activity will likely move within a few hours it can be
expected that scattered intense rainfall rates develop elsewhere
and lead to flash flooding.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!4rrZYKc0CcpfFuVS5Y3J5dGhwqLcWkNs1VrDduhkfHtElrO1yzHIvk_BZiZHuHISX8Fj= H0EYq0ZpCahoPYT0CuU6Nz8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 31739862 31509790 31039776 30649827 30309938=20
30190046 30460087 31100046 31619958=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071550
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-072150-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0612
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1149 AM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Mid-Atlantic between southern
Maryland and northern New Jersey

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071550Z - 072150Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving to stationary showers and thunderstorms
associated with Post-T.C. Chantal are expected to increase in
coverage and intensity this afternoon. Highly efficient tropical
downpours (2-3"/hr rates) are expected within these thunderstorms
and overlap with the urbanized corridor of eastern PA, NJ,
northern DE, and central/eastern MD. Scattered instances of flash
flooding are considered likely.

DISCUSSION...Post-T.C. Chantal was analyzed across southeast VA at
15z and continues to push northeast at around 30 mph. Meanwhile, a
surface trough extends to the northeast across the northern
Delmarva Peninsula and into northern NJ. This surface trough and
area of convergence just to the north and west of Chantal's center
will likely become the focus for developing slow-moving
thunderstorms through this afternoon. The atmospheric environment
in place supports efficient rain processes, with PWs of 2.0-2.4"
and MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. In fact, although displaced just to
the west of the heaviest rainfall threat IAD's 12z sounding
depicted a PW of 2.13" and freezing level of 15,788 feet, both
just below the daily max.

There is anticipated to be two separate modes of heavy rainfall
along the highlighted area from southern MD to northern NJ through
about 21z. The first area of concern is near the center of
Post-T.C. Chantal as it crosses over the Delmarva. Here,
slow-moving thunderstorms will feed off enhanced tropical moisture
(PWs over 2.3") and elevated levels of effective bulk shear (over
25 kts). Additionally, as the center of Chantal opens into more of
a mid-level trough by later this afternoon, weak steering flow
will be evident directly under this trough across the Delmarva.
This region is where the greatest potential exists for rainfall
rates to reach or even briefly exceed 3"/hr, as well as rainfall
totals exceed 5" potentially. The other area of concern will be
across eastern PA and NJ where mean layer flow of 20 kts out of
the south-southeast and out of an area of greater instability
(greater than 3000 J/kg of SBCAPE) will promote back-building or
stalled thunderstorms within a moist environment. Here, impacts
are expected to remain mostly localized as storms remain generally
small in size, but some impacts could be considerable given the
urban and sensitive terrain.

This region is most likely to experience impacts associated with
urban flooding or rapid ponding of water on roadways, with an
exception in southeast PA and central NJ where more rural and
suburban flash flooding is possible near rivers and streams given
the sensitive terrain and 1-hr FFG less than 1.5-2.0" in spots.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-R8bs3Hv-542-ryeM15lR8t5L_0AsV1rye2Spw5zS89eN4UuqYMJORmU1QVkIObEP5W0= 67OpKbeg69mUC_0uUUmw3g0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40877524 40677446 39917465 38557534 38087589=20
38227669 39197671 40287619=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071757
FFGMPD
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-072355-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0613
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
156 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Parts of the Upper Ohio Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 071755Z - 072355Z

SUMMARY...A few instances of flash flooding are possible this
afternoon and evening across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley as
scattered thunderstorms contain the potential for 2"/hr rates and
may repeat over similar areas.

DISCUSSION...Radar and satelitte observations this afternoon
highlight a cold front working its way slowly east-southeastward
along with an embedded low pressure area off the southwest shores
of Lake Erie as of 1730Z. Mean layer flow is quick (25-30kts) and
out of the southwest, leading to progressive storms along and
ahead of the frontal boundary. However, these storms are oriented
parallel to this flow, which supports the potential for repeating
rounds of storms that may lead to rainfall amounts exceeding local
FFG. PWs are greatest near and just ahead of the frontal boundary
where the best convergence is located, with values in the 1.7-2.0"
range and near the 90th climatological percentile per the 00z
ECENS. Daytime heating has also created an unstable environment
with SBCAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg and should allow for the
coverage of thunderstorms to further increase this afternoon along
with increasing rainfall rates up to 2"/hr.

Local FFG in the usually sensitive terrain of the Upper Ohio
Valley and particularly western PA are around 1-2.5" per 1-hr and
2-3" per 3-hr. Recent 12z HREF guidance shows 40-50% chances for
exceeding 2" in 3-hr across northeast OH and northwest PA through
21z, which is where forecaster confidence is also highest for a
few instances of flash flooding due to repeating storms.

Snell

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7_a9HpX4O7DKXZWugtjXY2yMbBicobxGSdcFJ7ab4b3Lu9vOn7m2qR2mul5LR6x3C3PM= H0WDsjj1x0ZguhnSWKtDlG4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...PBZ...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42527802 42357722 41737712 40957819 40427988=20
40268119 40468206 40968240 41368201 41638087=20
42007958=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 071930
FFGMPD
TXZ000-080030-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0614
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
329 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southern Big Country & Edwards Plateau of
west-central Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 071930Z - 080030Z

SUMMARY...Clusters seeking out remaining unstable environment.=20
Still remains capable of 2"/hr rates and scattered incidents of
flash flooding remain likely for the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...RADAR mosaic shows clusters of thunderstorms starting
to shift west and southward as modest cold pools are supporting
forward propagation/outflow boundaries. GOES-E Visible also shows
congested confluent inflow bands responding to the thunderstorm
clusters especially across Schleicher and Sutton counties while
more traditional cu streets show solid inflow from the south
across Edwards and W Kerr county. This is a signal of competing
environments for thunderstorm activity through the evening.=20
Inflow and increased insolation enhancing unstable environment
exist west toward the eastern Pecos River Valley and W Concho
Valley; while better deep layer moisture axis and upper-level
outflow support exists eastward toward the I-35 corridor. Some low
level drying combined with 700-300mb drying aloft noted in the
CIRA LPW shows gradient of total PWats decreasing from 2" to 1.4"
near the Pecos River, though MLCAPE axis of 2000-2500 J/kg
connects from the Rio Grande Valley into the Pecos Valley. Aloft,
the sheared 700-500mb axis remains very moist from the Hill
country northeastward with best vorticity center remaining north
of the current complex, likely maintaining the 15-20kts of
southerly confluent inflow along the southwest edge of the
complex. Entrance region to eastern side of larger scale ridge
over northern Old Mexico into the Permian basin combined with
approach of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) cell
over the Gulf supports solid divergence/outflow aloft but east of
the best low level forcing.=20=20

As such, convection is likely to continue to propagate along the
outflow and into the southerly inflow and unstable environment.=20
This will maintain some stronger cells but likely with drier air
ingestion, will limit rainfall efficiency (espcially compared to
prior days or even this morning) as well as still encouraging
forward propagation limiting overall totals. Still rates up to
2"/hr and localized spots of 2-4" remain possible especially given
increased probability of colliding outflows and storm scale
interactions including cell mergers. In these very isolated
incidents, focused/localized flash flooding will still be likely,
but those incidents should be reducing with time toward 00z given
increasing disconnect between best forcing elements.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5dwlZjIU2ReKfU4dHqG4642MpY5LWm_7bfSPFDsWm0U-Xr0O7Ooi_vnS0ViZ62Si1n5X= KYWHF25VgrYssLegsB_sVfQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32599955 32289951 31039952 29680007 29640096=20
29950156 30530178 31300165 31780128 32060093=20
32500005=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072311
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-080400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0615
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
710 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Southeastern OH...Western & Northern
WV...Southwest PA...Western MD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072310Z - 080400Z

SUMMARY...Favorable orientation for some short-term training
moving through rugged terrain/low FFG. Rates of 1.5-2"/hr and
localized totals to 2-3" pose possible localized incidents of
flash flooding through early overnight.

DISCUSSION...Long-term Visible loop shows a corridor of agitated
Cu field that narrowed into a linear feature that is shaped like
an older outflow boundary and connects back up to the main frontal
convection across western PA. As stronger moisture convergence
near a weak surface wave in southwest OH has matured into a larger
cluster of stronger cells with embedded rates of 1.5-2"/hr given
ample available moisture. Surface Tds into the low 70s and
enhanced low level confluent flow through the Ohio Valley noted in
CIRA LPW, has resulted in total PWats in near or just below 2" and
with solid 20kt inflow and modest but sufficient divergence aloft
at the far periphery of the right entrance of 30-50kt upper level
jet (solid ageostrophic response).

Cells are likely to remain fairly organized with about 25kt of
effective bulk shear. Fairly deep unidirectional flow through the
steering level is parallel to the bow westward of this apparent
older boundary like feature. As such, there is enough convective
development to suggest a few hours of repeating/training potential
even with some progressive nature to the convection (20-25kts of
mean flow). Additionally, propagation vectors appear to be weak
and along flow regime, but some outflow boundaries may still kick
ideal training axis a bit south probably to some benefit to reduce
higher overall totals.

As such, the potential for a streak or two of 2-3" totals are
probable. Given overall FFG values are naturally lower in fairly
rugged/narrow valley orography of SE OH into WV/SW PA; exceedance
is possible suggesting localized incidents of flash flooding.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7VDXJ1jvOYo8O751Ka04u0LxM3uxEAtCNrEi47doDqoWmrhAoVQBA8QTFqGDK5HTXDF_= IF2-WEFSqx0I85T48AQBlXg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CTP...ILN...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40847823 40477739 39687814 38608135 38378248=20
38668314 39368302 39858189=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 072343
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-080500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0616
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
742 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Western Kentucky...Northwest Tennessee...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072345Z - 080500Z

SUMMARY...Broader overturning along/southeast of outflow
boundaries may support short-term repeating/training & possible
mergers allowing for localized 2-4" totals and possible flash
flooding into early overnight period.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E Vis/EIR and RADAR animation depicts a mature
convective complex with strong outflow boundary crossing southeast
MO. Stronger deep layer convergence across a moderately unstable
environment with 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE has resulted in a few
bands of stronger/broader convective overturning of the unstable
air across Southwest KY and Northwest TN. Visible loops show
cells have oriented along some older either confluence or outflow
boundaries that extend eastward generally parallel to deeper layer
steering flow. Aloft, there is a col in upper-level flow as the
far northern periphery of the Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Trough
(TUTT) cell that can be seen over the northwest Gulf south of LA
with edge over N MS, while northern stream shortwave cross MO,
with entrance to polar jet in the vicinity. This has maximized
upper-level divergence in W KY/NW TN to further aid convective
organization.=20

Deep layer confluence into the northern stream through the Lower
Ohio Valley has maximized total PWat values over 2", perhaps
nearing 2.25". This will make cells very efficient with deep warm
cloud processes supporting 2-2.5"/hr rates (with an isolated 3"/hr
spot possible). Given deep layer flow into the northern stream is
also fairly parallel to the aforementioned confluence boundary and
slowly sagging cold front crossing the Ohio River; some repeating
and training is possible over the next few hours. That increased
duration may support some streaks of 2-4" totals in less than
3hrs. Given FFG values of 2-3"/3hrs across the area, this
suggests localized flash flooding is considered possible.=20=20
Convection should wane with loss of daytime heating and
overturning of the unstable air, but may still intersect remaining
untapped unstable air eastward, but overall trends should slowly
diminish after dark.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9iYO8hfpUaXS4snmiOwhNV-Z_sYnu2KoinrE6r-3d47E3mPyoRpJVKawnvngE4SEKV6K= 3IXWLH8j1oBjCKus0Y_YZ0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...MEG...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37538612 37148574 36718575 36408604 36148661=20
35908809 35858892 36128940 36468938 36838891=20
37108843 37498702=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080006
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-080600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0617
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
806 PM EDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NEB...Western IA...Far Southeast SD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080005Z - 080600Z

SUMMARY...Merging clusters of severe weather and increasing
mositure flux pose short-term intense bursts of heavy rainfall and
localized totals of 2-3.5" and possible flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic and GOES-E Visible imagery show
a large cluster of thunderstorms at the base of northern stream
shortwave trough crossing the Red River of the North where surface
warm front has lifted across the Missouri River Valley slowly
today. Southerly low level winds of 850mb have been steadily
increasing moisture return with Tds in the upper 60s and lower
70s. While mid-level moisture is enahnced across the 700-500mb
layer at this intersection of the northern stream trof and the
returning moisture. As such, total Pwats are increasing to 1.75"
and strong convective clusters with severe winds/hail are going to
increase in rainfall efficiency over the next few hours.

However, in the short-term some cells that have developed on the
southerly WAA in northeast NEB continue to lift north and will
start to merge with the southeastward cluster. This merger will
rapidly enhanced rainfall rates to over 2"/hr and may slow the
fairly progressive southeastward push of the overall system.=20
Isolated spots of 3"/hr while uncommon, may result and may quickly
overwhelm any soil condition; dry/wet or normal.

However, deep layer steering and cold pool generation will quickly
overcome that initial intersection and track/repeat southeastward
likely limiting overall totals thereafter, especially further
north and east within the overall complex. Though in the wake of
the cluster, low level jet flow will remain out of the south an
increase to 20-25kts and with some further veering may allow for
further isentropic development along the flanking line. As such,
upwind redevelopment will have the potential for training allowing
for spots of 2-3.5" to occur, likely across northeat NEB just east
of the Sand Hills over areas of FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and
2-2.5"/3hrs. As such, incidents of flash flooding may be possible
along the flanking line through the early overnight period toward
06z.=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7DaC-9TeZrNxh5SYyWEbYO7L_7VfLJnKplVtaTbO7d7ymnYRmtTOUX7NjBT2X9liQ4P0= F_QMYTuBMAqF05MGFElxfRc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43519732 43299628 42679539 41899478 41229523=20
40909629 40939748 41549807 42519825 43049815=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 080936
FFGMPD
ARZ000-OKZ000-081500-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0618
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
535 AM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...eastern OK into western AR

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080933Z - 081500Z

SUMMARY...Isolated flash flooding will be possible from parts of
eastern OK into western AR through the morning hours. Hourly
rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches and isolated totals in excess of 5
inches will be possible through 16Z.

DISCUSSION...GOES East infrared and area radar imagery showed the
early stages of a few showers/thunderstorms forming over eastern
OK as of 09Z. Water vapor imagery showed a mid-level shortwave
advancing across northeastern OK, moving into an airmass that was
partially capped but anomalously moist and weakly unstable (PWs
near 2 inches and MLCAPE of 500 to just over 1000 J/kg via 08Z SPC
mesoanalysis data). In addition, the flow aloft was diffluent
between the sub-tropical jet to the north and a strong upper ridge
centered over far northwestern Mexico.

Over the past few hours, 925-850 mb VAD winds and RAP data showed
a minor increase in low level moisture transport into the region
from the SW, which should help to further reduce weak low level
convective inhibition noted on RAP analysis soundings over eastern
OK. A continued increase in the coverage and intensity of
showers/thunderstorms is expected over the next 1-3 hours over
eastern OK and portions of western AR as the shortwave trough
continues to advance and low level CIN continues to erode.
Steering flow for storm motions is fairly weak (~10 kt) and some
brief training will be possible with cell motions generally moving
from west to east. Due to the high moisture environment, rainfall
rates of 2 to 3 inches (perhaps higher) will be possible along
with 30 minute rainfall of 1-2 inches. While recent HRRR/RRFS runs
have not been matching current radar trends, older HRRR and 00Z
HREF members were doing better and indicate the potential for
locally high rainfall totals (40 percent HREF probs for 3+ inches
and 30 percent HREF probs for 5+ inches through 18Z).

Given relatively low rainfall anomalies across the region over the
past 2 weeks, FFG values are on the high side for the region with
3 to 5 inches per 3 hours. Therefore, any instances of flash
flooding are expected to remain isolated and more likely across
any urban areas and/or typical flood prone regions of the Ouachita
Mountains into the Ozark Plateau.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_vlLS1YZ29St9tPCQtjB0nrBrUaEl2KLMtN7W7AaI_ro8QQn8gN5s0Nr-MEcvAtYCseG= VxaDgM-wjPffcrGcvHGvT7Y$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36499467 36279360 35819293 35199260 34419279=20
34019385 34049540 34989657 35919588=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081423
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0619
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1022 AM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Western/Northern AR...Southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081422Z - 082015Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will tend to increase in coverage going into the
afternoon hours. High rainfall rates and slow cell-motions will
likely yield isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, which
will include a concern for localloy significant/dangerous flash
flooding impacts near ares of rugged terrain.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
small-scale vort center drifting gradually east along the OK/AR
border in close proximity to the Ozark Plateau. This energy is
embedded in a very moist and unstable environment as evidenced by
the 12Z KLIT RAOB sounding along with RAP analyses, and is already
producing slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Much of the convection is somewhat elevated in nature, but is
embedded within MUCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and
with PWs that are near 2 inches. The activity is also seen locally
backbuilding along the OK/AR border in an environment with
relatively notable low-level moisture convergence.

Some expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected over the next several hours as the diurnal heating cycle
evolves and promotes more surface-based convection. The
aforementioned vort energy will continue to be slow-moving going
into the afternoon hours, but will be interacting with greater
surface-based instability along with differential heating
boundaries that will favor small-scale convergence zones/forcing
for additional convective development.

Corfidi vectors depict a strongly favorable environment for
backbuilding convection over the next several hours, and with such
a strongly moist and increasingly unstable airmass pooled across
the region, there will be notable concerns for slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates.

The last couple of runs of the HRRR guidance shows potential for
rainfall rates to reach 2 to 3+ inches/hour, with locally some
rainfall totals by mid-afternoon of as much as 3 to 6+ inches
given the slow cell-motions. Some of the 06Z HREF guidance also
supports similar rates and totals.

While the antecedent conditions are very dry, and reflective of
high FFG values, the very high rainfall rate potential and
localized storm potential suggests an elevated flash flood threat.
Some of these rains will also potentially be occurring over rugged
terrain which suggests an enhanced threat for runoff potential.
Therefore, going into the afternoon hours, at least isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely. Some concern
will exist for locally significant/dangerous flash flooding
impacts nears areas of rugged terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8PTQ_j0pbGkv1j-KgwZsyRENdS5azpYxIijJs-9rbHAlwfIJjkigAaTCjJ6ZIV3pCLsM= aZkQf2HtZ95tf0LMDfFV14M$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37559266 37559084 36808969 35609021 34559200=20
33839433 34419578 35669604 36669506=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081435
FFGMPD
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-082015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0619
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1034 AM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Eastern OK...Western/Northern AR...Southern MO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 081422Z - 082015Z

SUMMARY...Locally slow-moving clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms will tend to increase in coverage going into the
afternoon hours. High rainfall rates and slow cell-motions will
likely yield isolated to scattered areas of flash flooding, which
will include a concern for locally significant/dangerous flash
flooding impacts near areas of rugged terrain.

DISCUSSION...The morning GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows a
small-scale vort center drifting gradually east along the OK/AR
border in close proximity to the Ozark Plateau. This energy is
embedded in a very moist and unstable environment as evidenced by
the 12Z KLIT RAOB sounding along with RAP analyses, and is already
producing slow-moving clusters of very heavy showers and
thunderstorms.

Much of the convection is somewhat elevated in nature, but is
embedded within MUCAPE values ranging from 1000 to 2000 J/kg, and
with PWs that are near 2 inches. The activity is also seen locally
backbuilding along the OK/AR border in an environment with
relatively notable low-level moisture convergence.

Some expansion of heavy shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected over the next several hours as the diurnal heating cycle
evolves and promotes more surface-based convection. The
aforementioned vort energy will continue to be slow-moving going
into the afternoon hours, but will be interacting with greater
surface-based instability along with differential heating
boundaries that will favor small-scale convergence zones/forcing
for additional convective development.

Corfidi vectors depict a strongly favorable environment for
backbuilding convection over the next several hours, and with such
a strongly moist and increasingly unstable airmass pooled across
the region, there will be notable concerns for slow-moving showers
and thunderstorms with very high rainfall rates.

The last couple of runs of the HRRR guidance shows potential for
rainfall rates to reach 2 to 3+ inches/hour, with locally some
rainfall totals by mid-afternoon of as much as 3 to 6+ inches
given the slow cell-motions. Some of the 06Z HREF guidance also
supports similar rates and totals.

While the antecedent conditions are very dry, and reflective of
high FFG values, the very high rainfall rate potential and
localized storm potential suggests an elevated flash flood threat.
Some of these rains will also potentially be occurring over rugged
terrain which suggests an enhanced threat for runoff potential.
Therefore, going into the afternoon hours, at least isolated to
scattered areas of flash flooding will be likely. Some concern
will exist for locally significant/dangerous flash flooding
impacts nears areas of rugged terrain.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_5AuXO6HH-ES1Xw2_pq5cgjZeyqvS55YdWf5pzbsrjYKUHAJ7lKNpDCmTmPU2VIJkOaB= xAqQzyuLKT1zZhEyVK9DAa0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...OUN...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37559266 37559084 36808969 35609021 34559200=20
33839433 34419578 35669604 36669506=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081824
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-090000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0620
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
224 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081823Z - 090000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across the
Mid-Atlantic ahead of a cold front through this evening. Rainfall
rates at times could reach 3"/hr, which through repeating rounds
could produce 1-3" of rain. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows a
rapid expansion of higher reflectivity associated with an
increasing coverage of thunderstorms from West Virginia into
eastern Pennsylvania. These thunderstorms are blossoming ahead of
a cold front which is approaching from the west, with a weak
shortwave noted in GOES-E WV imagery moving across central
Pennsylvania as well. This area is additionally in the favorable
RRQ of a modest jet streak pivoting over the Northeast, enhancing
deep layer ascent. This lift is impinging into impressive
thermodynamics with a ribbon of MLCAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg being
drawn northward into the DelMarva and 2000 J/kg reaching into much
of PA on 850mb inflow of 15-20 kts. which is also pushing elevated
PWs of 1.8-1.9 inches into the region. The 12Z U/A sounding out of
IAD also measured a WBZ level of nearly 14,000 feet, well above
the 90th percentile and approaching the daily record. This all
suggests an environment which will support efficient warm-rain
processes today, and recent radar-estimated rain rates from KCCX
have been above 1.5"/hr.

As the aftn progresses and the front and the accompanying ascent
push into the destabilizing environment, thunderstorms should
become more widespread. The mean 0-6km wind will remain
progressive at around 20 kts to the E/NE, suggesting cells will
continue to track steadily to the east, but the presence of the
shortwave aloft and modest 20 kts of bulk shear could force subtle
organization into clusters. More problematic will be the rainfall
rates, for which both the REFS and HREF suggest have a 20-40%
chance of exceeding 2"/hr, and HRRR 15-min rainfall is as high as
0.75" indicating brief 3+"/hr rates. Even if storms remain
progressive, this could be problematic as these intense rates
would overwhelm soils leading to runoff, especially in urban
areas. However, in some locations repeating rounds may occur as
well, leading to total rainfall that has a 15-25% chance of
reaching 3" in some areas this evening.

Additionally, soils across the area (using NASA SPoRT 0-10cm soil
percentile as proxy) have saturation that is generally normal to
well above normal from 7-day rainfall that has been as much as
150-300% of normal. This has locally compromised 3-hr FFG to as
low as 1.5"/3hrs, especially between Washington, D.C. and
Philadelphia, with a secondary minimum near the Shenandoah Valley.
Although these heavy rain rates could be problematic anywhere
across the area through the evening, it is these more sensitive
soils or urban areas that have the greatest risk for impacts.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_iGWa40FIUaXyZ66c26fMfW9QUtYKRzHrdFaJkfYLa_S6ATUWh1pWXL-ZBz7GizTVXvG= 1VnWsXdEkYsxhj_0ZL6zjRE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...PHI...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 41137619 40997535 40627494 40027499 39597540=20
39107581 38597611 38127634 37727668 37377725=20
37187831 37277990 37888073 38298112 38678096=20
38998038 39387942 39857856 40547766 41007701=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 081918
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0621
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
318 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma, Central Arkansas, and the
ArkLaTex

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 081917Z - 090100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms rapidly expanding across
Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma will continue. Rainfall rates of
2"/hr or more are likely, which through slow motions and brief
organization into clusters will produce 2-3" of rain with locally
higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E experimental day-cloud microphysics RGB
this afternoon depicts rapid updraft growth into Cb across much of
AR and eastern OK. These updrafts are intensifying into
thunderstorms across much of the area, with a rapid expansion of
accompanying reflectivity noted in the regional radar mosaic. An
MCV is clearly indicated across NW AR dropping southward, with an
accompanying outflow boundary (OFB) draped back into OK serving as
another focus for convective growth. Low-level convergence along
this OFB, with more broad 850-700mb convergence across the area,
is helping to drive this ascent, especially beneath extremely
diffluent upper level flow. Thermodynamics within this region of
impressive ascent are supportive of heavy rain rates, with PWs
exceeding 2 inches, around 1.5 standard deviations above normal,
overlapping MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg. The overlap of the strong ascent
into these thermodynamics are supporting the expanding convection,
with rain rates estimated via KLZK WSR-88D as high as 2"/hr even
in fresh convection.

As the aftn progresses, it is likely that convection will continue
to expand from eastern OK through much of AR and into far
northeast TX. Although 0-6km bulk shear will remain minimal,
indicating generally pulse type storms, the widespread development
will likely force outflow interactions and storm mergers to
support occasional clusters. Additionally, some locally enhanced
organization is likely along the OFB and MCV as they pivot
southward. With rain rates expected to peak above 2"/hr (30%
chance on the HREF, 40% chance on the REFS), with 15-min rainfall
above 1" possible (brief 4"/hr rates). Despite the modest
organization, repeating rounds or where storms merge to briefly
intensify, total rainfall of 2-3" with locally higher amounts is
possible (40-60%).

FFG across the area is generally elevated to 3-4"/3hrs, and
although there are some pockets of lower FFG, soil infiltration
capacity appears elevated. This indicates that much of this rain
should be able to be absorbed. However, the intensity of the
forecast rainfall rates could still quickly become runoff,
especially in urban areas, or where multiple rounds occur (such
that the first round saturates the top soils). Where this occurs,
instances of flash flooding could occur as progged by REFS and
HREF 3-hr FFG exceedance probabilities rising to 15-30%.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8YANOh8smMsaH8MxfrNVGrQB0y298ICeIbmZO6yW9_Rr1pc7Q1RheFSeEePAWZtsUsyN= 2QZenyxZ6zz2C44LlFJwpDs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...JAN...LZK...OUN...SHV...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 36029710 35879658 35679596 35539504 35179368=20
34959248 34679156 34089117 33359136 32879205=20
32829334 33209500 33569575 34219646 35149707=20
35409720 35809734=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082010
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0622
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
409 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Southern Missouri through Central Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082009Z - 090200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will steadly expand across
Missouri and Illinois into the evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr
are likely, which through training could produce 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts. This will likely cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this afternoon shows rapid
cloud-top cooling associated with a line of deepening convection
from central Illinois through southwest Missouri, including the
St. Louis vicinity. These thunderstorms are rapidly intensifying
within an impressive overlap of ascent and thermodynamics. A
shortwave is noted in WV imagery moving over central MO, while a
surface wave and accompanying trough continue to dig southeast.
Additionally, a belt of enhanced westerlies is noted at 300mb
tracking overhead, providing additional, and locally enhanced,
lift. This deep layer ascent is acting upon favorable
thermodynamics with PWs above 1.75 inches and MLCAPE over 2000
J/kg. A pronounced CAPE gradient exists from NW to SE along this
surface trough, providing the focus for thunderstorms, within
which radar-estimated rain rates have already surpassed 2"/hr.

Confidence is increasing that the flash flood risk will rapidly
increase during the next few hours. As the surface trough drops
slowly southeast and the accompanying wave of low pressure skirts
into IL, it will interact with even more robust thermodynamics.
This will be due to generally modest 850mb inflow from the SW at
10-15 kts impinging and converging into the low-level convergent boundary/instability gradient. At the same time, the narrow
corridor of enhanced westerlies will maintain generally westerly
0-6km mean winds to align to the surface boundary, while
concurrently enhancing bulk shear to force better, although still
modest, storm organization. At the same time, Corfidi vectors will
remain parallel to the mean flow and surface trough, indicating a
high likelihood of training as storms back build into the greater
instability and then track along the boundary.

Rain rates in excess of 1"/hr are likely (>70% chance), with
2+"/hr possible (40% chance) as warm rain processes dominate
thanks to warm cloud depths approaching 13,000 ft. While the most
pronounced training may occur across MO, there is an enhanced
rainfall risk into central IL as well as the surface wave moves
into the area and provides a focus for some slow
moving/regenerating cells. With these intense rain rates expected
to continue, this could produce 2-4" of rain, with locally higher
amounts above 5" forecast by 10-20% chance of exceedance on the
HREF.

The CAMs are in very good agreement with this evolution the next
few hours as reflected by significant (20-40%) 1"/6hrs HREF EAS
probabilities that include St. Louis, MO and Springfield, IL. The
limiting factor to flash flood instances may be antecedent dryness
and FFG that is generally 2-3"/3hrs. However, both the HREF and
REFS indicate a 30-40% chance of exceedance, and the urban areas
are even more vulnerable, so instances of flash flooding are
likely as cells train through the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6uGQs6jPzlHWQaS4AjsZR_FaLzv5bChrINCfKAmwYKF0ZXvrNgmPbbWf2rsHWDpXk2yd= j89Bl1pK4i-U_e2ho4WPk_k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41148872 40728810 39968796 39208838 38448945=20
37729087 37379241 37279334 37289406 37499450=20
37849435 38229327 39119198 40009049 40898930=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082015
FFGMPD
ILZ000-MOZ000-090200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0622...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
415 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Corrected for Graphic

Areas affected...Southern Missouri through Central Illinois

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 082009Z - 090200Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will steadly expand across
Missouri and Illinois into the evening. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr
are likely, which through training could produce 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts. This will likely cause flash flooding.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this afternoon shows rapid
cloud-top cooling associated with a line of deepening convection
from central Illinois through southwest Missouri, including the
St. Louis vicinity. These thunderstorms are rapidly intensifying
within an impressive overlap of ascent and thermodynamics. A
shortwave is noted in WV imagery moving over central MO, while a
surface wave and accompanying trough continue to dig southeast.
Additionally, a belt of enhanced westerlies is noted at 300mb
tracking overhead, providing additional, and locally enhanced,
lift. This deep layer ascent is acting upon favorable
thermodynamics with PWs above 1.75 inches and MLCAPE over 2000
J/kg. A pronounced CAPE gradient exists from NW to SE along this
surface trough, providing the focus for thunderstorms, within
which radar-estimated rain rates have already surpassed 2"/hr.

Confidence is increasing that the flash flood risk will rapidly
increase during the next few hours. As the surface trough drops
slowly southeast and the accompanying wave of low pressure skirts
into IL, it will interact with even more robust thermodynamics.
This will be due to generally modest 850mb inflow from the SW at
10-15 kts impinging and converging into the low-level convergent boundary/instability gradient. At the same time, the narrow
corridor of enhanced westerlies will maintain generally westerly
0-6km mean winds to align to the surface boundary, while
concurrently enhancing bulk shear to force better, although still
modest, storm organization. At the same time, Corfidi vectors will
remain parallel to the mean flow and surface trough, indicating a
high likelihood of training as storms back build into the greater
instability and then track along the boundary.

Rain rates in excess of 1"/hr are likely (>70% chance), with
2+"/hr possible (40% chance) as warm rain processes dominate
thanks to warm cloud depths approaching 13,000 ft. While the most
pronounced training may occur across MO, there is an enhanced
rainfall risk into central IL as well as the surface wave moves
into the area and provides a focus for some slow
moving/regenerating cells. With these intense rain rates expected
to continue, this could produce 2-4" of rain, with locally higher
amounts above 5" forecast by 10-20% chance of exceedance on the
HREF.

The CAMs are in very good agreement with this evolution the next
few hours as reflected by significant (20-40%) 1"/6hrs HREF EAS
probabilities that include St. Louis, MO and Springfield, IL. The
limiting factor to flash flood instances may be antecedent dryness
and FFG that is generally 2-3"/3hrs. However, both the HREF and
REFS indicate a 30-40% chance of exceedance, and the urban areas
are even more vulnerable, so instances of flash flooding are
likely as cells train through the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6-c-V9g61S8pWuciJPkWcCV0uuHqMbUY8dyFBgJgY7LIldR_fdZUVUszydZ9DpOscenk= f2pOe2qgHJrsbyAI1uf48ks$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...SGF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...ORN...TIR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 41148872 40728810 39968796 39208838 38448945=20
37729087 37379241 37279334 37289406 37499450=20
37849435 38229327 39119198 40009049 40898930=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082120
FFGMPD
MAZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-090300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0623
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
519 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Eastern PA and DE northeast into Southern New
England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082118Z - 090300Z

Summary...Convection blossoming along a southward advancing cold
front will exhibit short term training of 2-3"/hr rain rates. This
could produce 1-3" of rainfall with locally higher amounts. Flash
flooding is possible, especially within urban areas.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
clusters of thunderstorms advancing eastward along and ahead of a
cold front. This cold front is dropping slowly southward in
response to height falls downstream of an approaching trough axis
centered near the Great Lakes, with weak vorticity impulses
embedded within the flow. As the front becomes strung out more
west-east this evening, it will likely slow, continuing to be the
impetus for thunderstorm development as it moves into a more
robust thermodynamic airmass.

PWs across the area are 2-2.2 inches according to the SPC RAP
analysis, which is well above the 90th percentile and nearing
daily records. The accompanying instability is equally impressive,
with a narrow ribbon of 3000 J/kg SBCAPE emerging from the
DelMarVa northward into southern CT and RI. This CAPE is
characterized of the "tall skinny" variety as well as reflected by
normalize dCAPE values of just 0.1 to 0.15, indicating moist
adiabatic lapse rates through a deep column suggestive of an
efficient rainfall environment. Thunderstorms that have already
developed across the area have radar-estimated rain rates of more
than 2"/hr according to KDIX, with FFWs already in effect across
eastern PA.

During the next few hours, the CAMs are in relatively good
agreement that showers and thunderstorms will expand and spread
eastward into the Tri-State area of NJ/NY/CT immediately
downstream of the cold front. As the front aligns generally west
to east, mean 0-6km winds of 15-20 kts parallel to the front
combined with bulk shear increasing to 20-25 kts suggest storms
will organize into clusters and repeatedly track/train along this
front and the attendant instability gradient. With rainfall rates
potentially ereaching 2-3"/hr at times (20-40% chance), leading to
1-hr rainfall that could be up to 1.5-2.0 inches according to HREF
and REFS PMM, any short term training or repeating could produce
1-3" of rain with locally higher amounts possible.

FFG across the area is generally 2-3"/3hrs, for which the HREF
indicates has a low probability (10-15%) chance of exceedance.
However, urban areas will likely need much lower rainfall to cause
rapid runoff where 1-hr FFG is only around 1 inch. Additionally,
the low-level SW flow could force some locally enhanced
convergence/training, especially from northeast NJ, across Long
Island, and into southern CT where FFG exceedances peak. This
indicates that the greatest risk for flash flooding will be in
this vicinity this evening, but anywhere short-term training of
these intense rain rates can occur, impacts are possible.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9HbK1YMmEK91UQyWC_rUHETZhkv9EQKfcI7e72A-TkhKWu-WkxMiJqFbvLCU7NH5Ploz= aRUUcYpaGtMlgHMbc-QSUzI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ALY...BGM...BOX...CTP...OKX...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42257332 42257234 42217137 42037070 41797041=20
41497061 40957191 40857222 40607284 40257346=20
39857383 39537416 39027463 38527517 38447556=20
38877591 40027610 40627639 41257647 41677621=20
42087475=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 082357
FFGMPD
LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-090530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0624
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
757 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Southeast Oklahoma, The ArkLaTex, North Texas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082356Z - 090530Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand across the
ArkLaTex and North Texas through the evening. Rainfall rates of
2-3"/hr are likely within deeper convection, leading to 2-3" of
rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows two
outflow boundaries (OFB) draped in the vicinity of the ArkLaTex.
One is moving south along the Red River Valley, while a second OFB
lifts slowly northward across eastern Texas. Aloft, a shortwave is
noted in WV imagery drifting south across Oklahoma, while
impressive upper divergence pivots overhead to additionally
enhance ascent. Across this region, PWs above 2.2 inches exist in
a ribbon oriented SW to NE, collocated with a corridor of MLCAPE
above 2500 J/kg. Convection forming along these OFBs is already
producing radar-estimated rain rates of 1.5+"/hr according to KSHV.

During the next few hours, it is likely that these OFBs will
collide. The interaction of these boundaries will occur into the
core of the most impressive thermodynamics, and beneath the most
aggressive upper divergence, suggesting rapid convective growth
along the convergence axis. The CAMs, while differing in exact
timing and placement of this collision, all indicate an
intensifying west-to-east oriented swath of convection during this
collision, providing higher confidence in the evolution. With
robust thermodynamics in place, this intense ascent will result in
strong updrafts which could support rainfall rates of 2-3"/hr as
forecast by HREF neighborhood probabilities for 2"/hr reaching
40%. These thunderstorms will also likely move very slowly as
0-6km mean winds are just 5-10 kts, with modest bulk shear of
around 20 kts marginally supporting convective clusters. Where
these develop, they may train from west to east along the
boundary, at least briefly, lengthening the duration to produce an
axis of 2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts approaching 5"
possible.

This area has been dry recently, which is reflected by FFG as much
as 3-4"/3hrs, except SW of the Dallas metro and west of I-35 where
FFG is considerably lower. The HREF exceedance probabilities for
this FFG peak only around 20%, suggesting the flash flood risk
will be generally isolated through the evening. However, with slow
moving storms containing these intense rain rates, and the
increasing potential for some upwind propagation along the
colliding boundaries to slow the net motions, soils could be
locally overwhelmed, especially in urban areas or atop the locally
more saturated areas, leading to instances of flash flooding.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5bjdRDg3lqI9RtBnaIN5Dft3ch67ZuxT7Arhvrut15vjvz9OSiooc9u9zQMEtdtXv8Wj= q33Z3MI57U97nUQZAsZKMRQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SHV...SJT...TSA...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 34419463 34339328 34039251 33339225 32749261=20
32249344 31849481 31619622 31419741 31499874=20
31849882 33239777 34369636=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090032
FFGMPD
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-090530-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0625
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
831 PM EDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Areas affected...Much of Virginia into the DelMarVa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090030Z - 090530Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage and
gradually shift southeast through the evening. Rainfall rates of
1-2"/hr are expected, which through training could produce 2-3" of
rainfall. Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic early this evening shows an
uptick in convective development from SW Virginia through the
Tidewater Region. Above this developing convection, IR satellite
imagery indicates an expansion of cloud tops falling below -50C,
indicatative of the continued strengthening thunderstorms. This
convection is blossoming in response to ascent driven by low-level
convergence along a surface trough, weak isentropic lift as the
modest 850mb LLJ surges northeast, and modest upper diffluence
within the tail of jet streak centered over New England. This
pronounced lift is acting upon rich thermodynamics created via PWs
measured by the SPC RAP analysis of 1.9 to 2.1 inches, well above
the 90th percentile for the date, collocated with a plume of
MLCAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg.

During the next few hours, this trough should pivot slowly
southeast, continuing to provide the needed ascent for
thunderstorm development despite the wane of daytime instability
combined with convective overturning. The continued convection
will be additionally supported by a subtle increase in the LLJ
(reaching as high as 20 kts) to provide persistent isentropic
ascent and thermodynamic resupply thanks to MUCAPE remaining above
1000 J/kg. This LLJ at 850mb is additionally progged to veer to be
more aligned to the boundary, supporting enhanced training as
storms develop in the next few hours. Although there continues to
be some disagreement in the CAMs about the timing and spatial
extent of convection through the evening, with rain rates forecast
via HREF neighborhood probabilities to have a 60% (30%) chance of
exceeding 1"/hr (2"/hr), any training could produce 2-3" of rain
with locally higher amounts.

Any location that receives training of these intense rain rates
this evening could experience runoff capable of producing flash
flooding. The greatest risk, however, appears to be generally from
Richmond east to the coast where 0-10cm soil moisture from NASA
SPoRT is above the 95th percentile and 1-hr FFG is locally as low
as 1". Additionally the enhanced instability in the vicinity of
the warm waters of the Chesapeake Bay could enhance any convection
as well as the potential for regenerative and repeating cells.
Although the risk should wane nocturnally, at least for the next
few hours flash flooding will remain a threat across this area.

Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5ZK0Y3jwGBWWbPYaO-agBK4kMalvJRkWti0MSZCVtGZwXrzZd_pyr2yHX2D9j_sf59UP= rCzoT0UsYPC5mICba8pW2kU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...PHI...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38627659 38507513 37937503 37267543 36787678=20
36577880 36588054 36918121 37478056 37977885=20
38427742=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 090548
FFGMPD
MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-091015-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0626
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
148 AM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...central to southeastern VA into southern DelMarVa
Peninsula

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 090547Z - 091015Z

Summary...A threat of flash flooding will continue across portions
of central to southeastern VA and possibly into the southern
DelMarVa Peninsula through 09-10Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr
(locally higher possible) and additional totals of 2-4 inches are
expected.

Discussion...Local radar imagery at 0520Z showed a region of
thunderstorms extending west-east from central VA to just west of
the Chesapeake Bay. MRMS has been matching local gauge reports
fairly well over the past 2-3 hours in showing peak hourly
rainfall totals in the 1-2 inch range. An outflow boundary was
noted to be pushing south of the Richmond/Petersburg metro but
additional storms to the west were likely being aided via a
southwesterly axis of low level moisture feeding directly into the
region at 20 kt/isentropic ascent, beneath weakly diffluent flow
aloft. MLCAPE trends have come down significantly over the past 3
hours with 05Z SPC mesoanalysis data showing less than 500 J/kg
MLCAPE in place over most of VA. However, relatively steep lapse
rates in the 850-700 mb layer (6.5-7.5 C/km) were contributing to
elevated instability of up to 1000 J/kg across much of the region.

Thunderstorms are expected to continue advancing east over the
next few hours but with some southward translation due to cold
pools and propagation into the inflow. While weakening of
convective intensity is anticipated overall by 09/10Z, flash flood
potential will continue to linger from 1-2 in/hr rainfall rates
(locally higher possible) and the potential for an additional 2-4
inches over the next 3-5 hours. If storms are able to survive,
they will bring potential flash flood impacts to the
Hampton/Norfolk/Virginia Beach regions of southeastern VA,
although recent available hires models do not support storms
maintaining significant intensity that far east.

Otto

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!43rCDZxSRadQiVddtwu4KIstwZRB3IYROes-WevDbGzQChxIEay7gY-cgAuVITE-rQml= vHuuZGsPxL1mjB36sHezsT8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38137536 37817510 37257534 36547584 36507701=20
36637865 37227873 37637750=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091521
FFGMPD
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-092120-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0627
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1120 AM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Upper OH Valley...Central Appalachians/Blue Ridge

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091520Z - 092120Z

SUMMARY...Developing showers and thunderstorms will be expanding
in coverage going through the afternoon hours. High rainfall rates
are expected to drive a likelihood for at least scattered areas of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The late-morning GOES-E satellite imagery shows an
elongated shortwave trough gradually transiting the OH Valley
which will be interacting with a moist and increasingly unstable
airmass pooled across the region, and this will set the stage for
developing and expanding clusters of heavy showers and
thunderstorms going through the early to mid-afternoon hours.
Already the latest radar imagery shows a few small-scale clusters
of showers and thunderstorms developing over eastern KY, southeast
OH and central WV.

MLCAPE values have already increased to 1000 to 1500 J/kg with the
aid of morning solar insolation, and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75+ are in
place which are about 1.5 to 2 standard deviations above normal.
Some gradually increasing mid-level west-southwesterly flow will
promote some uptick in shear parameters over the next several
hours with effective bulk shear rising to about 25 to 35+ kts.

These environmental trends should be conducive for seeing bands of
multi-cell convection which will tend to be expanding in coverage
with the aid of differential heating boundaries and orographics,
with cell-motions gradually off to the east that will include far
eastern KY, southeast OH, and much of WV initially. By
mid-afternoon, this activity should then advance or develop across
adjacent areas of the MD/WV Panhandles, western VA and also
northwest NC involving the Blue Ridge and portions of the
Mid-Atlantic Piedmont.

The anomalous PW environment alone will favor high rainfall rates
that may reach as high as 1 to 2 inches/hour which is strongly
favored by the 12Z HREF guidance, but there will potentially be
some orographic/terrain-induced forcing that may elevate these
rates a bit further. This will especially be the case by
mid-afternoon for areas over the central Appalachians and adjacent
areas of the Blue Ridge involving MD/WV/VA.

The 12Z HREF and 06Z REFS guidance collectively suggest some
rainfall total potential by late-afternoon of 2 to 4+ inches.
These rainfall amounts are likely to result in at least scattered
areas of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!99ZAMRbadncOExsCxUOv9BBPH2KEQfOO6_ZA2Tn1ofAU_Igklhc--o8wfW6u5pSeXe2p= Eb7BDcvzUmWhuEL6B9yK7-I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...GSP...ILN...JKL...LWX...MRX...PBZ... RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 39927742 39767683 38867716 37537862 36607948=20
35728092 35488223 35658290 36288278 36728273=20
37718283 38878310 39578238 39778093 39757863=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091822
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-100000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0628
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
221 PM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Middle and Upper Texas Coast into Southwest
Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091819Z - 100000Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
along the Middle and Upper Texas Coasts through the afternoon.
Rainfall rates will intensify to 2-4"/hr, resulting in pockets of
2-3" of rain with locally higher amounts. Flash flooding is
possible.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this afternoon shows
rapidly expanding coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the
Middle and Upper Texas coasts, with activity lifting slowly
northward across the coastal plain. This activity is responding to
extreme thermodynamics, as PWs sampled via GPS are 2.0-2.1 inches,
which is around the 90th percentile for the area according to the
SPC sounding climatology, paired with MLCAPE that is over 2000
J/kg. Into these robust thermodynamics, forcing for ascent
continues to maximize in response to a shortwave and accompanying
strung out vorticity maxima drifting southward from North Texas,
and impressive upper level divergence as the region is sandwiched
between mid-level synoptic high pressure ridges. Additionally,
light onshore low level flow is allowing the gulf breeze to push
inland, functioning as an axis for convergence and storm
development. The overlap of this ascent and moisture is driving
rain rates which have been estimated via KHGX WSR-88D to be
1.5"/hr, leading to MRMS measured rainfall above 1.5" in a few
spots the past hour.

The high-res CAMs are in general under-representing the current
activity, although the ARW/ARW2 seem to have the best handle on
the current situation. Despite that, all CAMs indicate rapid
expansion of coverage during the next few hours, which indicates
that showers and thunderstorms should become numerous to
widespread, which is additionally supported by the favorable
overlap of instability, moisture, and ascent. As storms become
more numerous, mergers and collisions will become more likely as
bulk shear remains minimal, with resulting interactions leading to
rapid updraft development. In the anomalous environment, rainfall
rates of more than 2"/hr are expected as forecast by HREF (REFS)
neighborhood probabilities reaching 30% (50%), with brief rainfall
rates of 4"/hr possible as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall
peaking around 1". Mean 0-6km winds will remain light at just 5
kts, which when combined with the pulse type storms indicates slow
and chaotic motions that could result in 2-3" of rain with local
amounts as much as 5" into the evening.

0-40cm soil moisture from NASA SPoRT is saturated above the 95th
percentile in many areas, resulting in FFG that is compromised,
especially for this region, to as low as 2.5"/3hrs, and both the
HREF and REFS probabilities indicate a medium change (30-60%) of
exceedance. This suggests that despite a lack of organization,
these intense rainfall rates, especially during slow and chaotic
motions or across more urban areas, could create rapid runoff
leading to instances of flash flooding.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8yy2sDn2ran2vWR6TZzzlIezAchrqa8YRkbVAi7Wifad3oi7-EcpvwM-R9lCu8xVVoyD= POhcj_ZdT_yE9IMZz4_vdGI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 31539407 31349344 31029288 30779260 30479259=20
30109274 29649358 29209446 29029476 28759525=20
28389597 27859698 27779765 27979806 28249830=20
28859819 29649771 30219709 31149578 31449491=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091852
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-100050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0629
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
250 PM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 091850Z - 100050Z

SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will evolve across much
of the Mid-Atlantic region going into the evening hours.
Relatively wet antecedent conditions coupled with high rainfall
rates and some cell-training concerns will drive an elevated flash
flooding risk, with potential for locally significant and
dangerous urban flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR satellite imagery shows an
expansive area of cooling convective tops associated with heavy
showers and thunderstorms across the central Appalachians which
are gradually advancing off to the east as an upstream shortwave
trough over the OH Valley encroaches upon the region.

The airmass downstream over a large portion of the Mid-Atlantic
region is moderate to strongly unstable with MLCAPE values of 1500
to 3000+ J/kg noted east of the Blue Ridge and extending toward
the broader Chesapeake Bay region including portions of the
Delmarva. A very moist environment is in place with PWs of 1.75 to
2 inches, which includes a 1.82 inch PW in the 12Z IAD RAOB
sounding. These PWs are on the order of 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above normal.

This very favorable thermodynamic environment is going to combine
with a gradually increasing level of deeper layer shear over the
next several hours as stronger mid-level west-southwest flow
arrives ahead of the upstream shortwave. In fact, at least for the
central and and northern Mid-Atlantic, including northern VA and
central MD east through the northern Delmarva, southeast PA and
southern NJ, there will be as much as 30 to 40 kts of effective
bulk shear.

This will promote numerous areas of multi-cell and perhaps some
localized supercell thunderstorm activity near and east of the
Blue Ridge, and extending through the greater Chesapeake Bay
region going through the remainder of the afternoon and early
evening hours.

High rainfall rates are expected given the organized nature of the
convective threat along with the very moist and unstable
environment. The latest hires CAM guidance supports rainfall rates
of locally as high as 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour with the stronger
cells. The convective evolution in time should take on a more progressive/linear mode, but as this occurs there may be some
localized corridors of cell-training. This will yield locally
higher-end rainfall potential with some spotty storm totals of 3
to 5 inches not out of the question. This is supported by the 12Z
HREF and 06Z REFS guidance.

This rainfall potential over the next several hours coupled with
generally wet antecedent conditions and the highly sensitive urban
areas of the Mid-Atlantic, including the I-81, I-64 and I-95
corridors from southwest to northern VA, central MD and southeast
PA, will favor an elevated risk of flash flooding. This will
include concerns for locally significant and dangerous urban flash
flooding for several major metropolitan areas.

Orrison/Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_4kcZPVj-I0_f-v_rTRNV3b2DymOIUUkcbGXZZwkJGIBLmOWjQ868V4UFtFnlp7fzGxr= Vioz_qQk6BpKdHc3wFBhLnM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...GSP...LWX...PHI...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 40337512 40107433 39367429 38507518 37867607=20
36847810 35447979 35428088 36288122 37998022=20
39157876 40137665=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 091909
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-100050-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0630
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...South-Central North Carolina through North
Florida

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 091907Z - 100050Z

Summary...Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to
drift slowly across the area through this afternoon. Rainfall
rates of 2-3"/hr are likely, which could produce 2-4" of rain with
locally higher amounts. This may result in flash flooding.

Discussion...The experimental GOES-E day-cloud microphysics RGB
clearly indicates the breadth of convection across coastal GA and
SC this afternoon. Widespread and rapid blossoming of updrafts
into anvils are noted in the satellite imagery, which is
collocated with expansive reflectivity above 40dbZ on the regional
radar mosaic. The quickness with which updrafts surge into Cb is
indicative of the extreme environment, characterized by SBCAPE
eclipsing 4000 J/kg and PWs measured by GPS exceeding 2.25 inches
which is above the 90th percentile and approaching daily records.
Into these thermodynamics, forcing for ascent is being driven by a
pair of vorticity maxima approaching the region beneath increasing
upper diffluence from the distant tail of a jet streak positioned
to the northeast. Additionally, the sea breeze boundary and
resulting outflow boundaries from convection are providing
low-level ascent to sustain and regenerate thunderstorms.

The 12Z U/A sounding from both KCHS and KJAX measured freezing
levels around 15,500 ft, with weak and chaotic winds of 10kts or
less through most of the column. This indicates that efficient
warm-rain processes will dominate today, with slow and chaotic
cell motions also expected. This is clearly evident already, and
recent radar-estimated rain rates have exceeded 2"/hr from KCLX,
leading to MRMS measured 1-hr rainfall above 2.5" in isolated
locations over southeast GA. As low-level flow converges across
the area, with increasing PW advection surging onshore (as
reflected by the sfc-850mb CIRA LPW percentiles), and ascent
persists into the additional moistening, rainfall rates will
continue to intensify, with widespread rates above 2"/hr likely,
and brief 4"/hr rates possible as shown on the HRRR 15-min
rainfall reaching 1" in spots. Although bulk shear will be minimal
so storms will remain of the pulse variety, collisions and mergers
of cells could cause additional development into clusters at
times. With weak flow throughout the column, storm motions will be
chaotic and slow as dictated by these collisions/outflows, and
upwind propagation vectors into any clusters collapse to around 0
kts suggesting net stationary motion at times. Where this occurs,
total rainfall will likely (60%) exceed 3", with as much as 5"
possible (15%) in a few locations.

Although some parts of the coastal plain have received heavy rain
the past 7 days, it has been very scattered, and NASA SPoRT 0-10cm
soil moisture is generally normal to below normal. This has
resulted in FFG that is generally 3-4"/3hrs, although likely lower
across any urban areas. Despite that, 3-hr FFG exceedance
probabilities reach as high as 20-30%, further indicating the
potential for instances of flash flooding due to these slow moving
storms into the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_N50AuNE_ypbqvX5uXNzSJ9WLch0CK7gQjuOIkF0S1LbSiyv_ROhYmaFUdc9TSz92ds1= 4XVkl8ZIpECy9j-EYDiOGxI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...ILM...JAX...RAH...TAE...
TBW...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 35438047 35308008 35007979 34637962 34247968=20
33747995 32908028 32258059 31628104 30928129=20
30448135 30088131 29698134 29408239 30058303=20
31088356 32158331 33028304 33718254 34378210=20
34878173 35308127 35428093=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 092355
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-GAZ000-TNZ000-100600-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0631
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
755 PM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Southern Appalachians into the Carolinas Piedmont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 092354Z - 100600Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage
through the next several hours. Rainfall rates within deeper
convection will exceed 2"/hr leading to localized rainfall as much
as 3-4". Flash flooding is possible.

Discussion...The GOES-E IR imagery this evening shows a slow
uptick of cooling cloud tops from northern AL through
western/central NC. These cooling tops are associated with
deepening convection within a belt of higher moisture clearly
noted on the GOES-E WV imagery stretching from MS into New
England. Embedded in this plume, a potent vorticity max is
pinwheeling across central TN, accompanying the primary mid-level
trough axis that is concurrently swinging eastward. This is
driving mid-level height falls from eastern TN into the Carolinas
and western VA, which is combining with S/SW 925-850mb flow and
the resulting upslope/convergence into the terrain to produce
significant ascent. Additionally, a pre-frontal trough and
accompanying squall line are moving across central NC. This lift
is acting upon a moist and unstable atmosphere characterized by
PWs of 1.8-2.2 inches and MLCAPE that remains above 2000 J/kg,
resulting in widespread thunderstorm development noted via the
regional radar mosaic.

Radar estimated rain rates have been as much as 2"/hr according to
KGSP and KMRX, and these are likely to continue for several more
hours as reflected by HREF 2"/hr neighborhood probabilities
peaking above 30%. This is despite the slow wane of surface
instability, as the residual elevated CAPE will be plentiful to
support heavy rain. As the shortwave and mid-level trough axis
over TN swing eastward, forcing for ascent should maximize over
western NC and the surrounding mountains/foothills, leading to an
increase in convective coverage. This is suggested by many
high-res CAMs, and activity is expected to linger well beyond the
typical diurnal maximum. As convection expands, bulk shear may
approach 25 kts to help drive at least modest organization into
clusters, but with mean 0-6km winds and accompanying Corfidi
vectors remaining just 5-10 kts, storm motions will be slow and
chaotic. This is concerning for the flash flood potential as the
intense rain rates will continue, helping to drive the HREF
neighborhood probabilities for 3"/6hr (5"/6hr) above 40% (10%).

FFG across the region varies greatly since the mountains have been
dry the last 7 days, but the Piedmont is vulnerable due to recent
heavy rain. Despite the varying FFG, HREF 3-hr FFG exceedance
probabilities peak at 15-30% across much of the region. This
suggests a flash flood risk exists across the entirety of the
area, with the vulnerable soils east, and sensitive terrain west,
increasing the runoff risk through the evening.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7yst06KkSqxdriZn2l8VXmfCjEkwZvmiiIcIq84uP5AtJiEXoeoPAKydVNRpvksH9FSU= IAHKUnrExW804NMw9keUHQ4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...JKL...MRX...RAH...RLX...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 37118106 36617969 35857935 35087952 34728008=20
34508150 34438283 34558372 34678435 34898482=20
35688476 36588357 36948259=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100048
FFGMPD
NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-NCZ000-DCZ000-100630-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0632
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
848 PM EDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Areas affected...Mid-Atlantic States

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100047Z - 100630Z

Summary...A line of thunderstorms along a pre-frontal trough will
continue to move E/NE through the evening. Rainfall rates of
1-3"/hr are likely within these storms, leaning to stripes of 2-4"
of rain and additional instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...The regional radar mosaic this evening shows an
impressive squall line with continuous thunderstorms aligned from
near Philadelphia, PA southwest to Charlotte, NC. This line has
been slowly but steadily moving east, while cells along the line
track northeast. As this line has moved east, it has left a swath
of MRMS measured rainfall of 1-3" with locally as much as 4" in
the past 6 hours, and radar-estimated rain rates from radars along
the line continue to be 1.5-2.0"/hr.

There is good agreement that the squall line will continue to
pivot slowly eastward, although some faster progression has been
noted recently across NC/VA. Thermodynamics downstream of the line
remain impressive and favorable for the continuation of heavy
rain. MLCAPE is above 2000 J/kg in a narrow corridor generally
along and east of I-95, with collocated PWs of 1.9 to 2.2 inches,
or +1.5 standard deviations according to the SREF. 850mb inflow is
measured out of the S/SW at around 20 kts according to regional
VWPs downstream of the line, which when combined with the highly
anomalous PWs will continue to push anomalous 850-700mb moisture
flux into the region. This will support the persistence of heavy
rain rates above 2"/hr as progged by HREF 2"/hr neighborhood
probabilities of 30-40%, with brief rain rates above 3"/hr
possible as reflected by HRRR 15-min rainfall reaching 0.75" or
more.

Bulk shear along and ahead of the line will remain 20-30 kts
through the evening, suggesting multi-cell clusters (and isolated
supercells) will continue, and this organization may briefly
intensify and temporally extend the heavy rain rates. This will be
in addition to training of cells that is expected from SW to NE
due to parallel 0-6km mean winds and Corfidi vectors from VA
northeast. Farther south into NC, Corfidi vectors pivot to become
aligned anti-paralle to the mean wind, indicating that
regenerating and backbuilding cells into the greater instability
is also expected. Either way, this suggests a high potential for
training the next several hours, leading to rainfall that could
reach 2-4", or locally higher, according to HREF 6-hr neighborhood probabilities.

0-10cm soil moisture percentiles over this area are generally well
above normal, and above the 98th percentile in parts of NC and
from Washington, D.C northeast through coastal NJ. This is
reflected by extremely compromised 1-hr FFG that is 1.5" or less,
suggesting even outside of the urban areas the soils have limited
infiltration capacity and are vulnerable to rapid runoff/flash
flooding. With these intense rain rates expected to continue for
several more hours as the line translates eastward, any training
would likely overwhelm these soils quickly, leading to additional
flash flooding across the region.


Weiss

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9r5T94Fa3iGEQvrUHdg6ZTRmV78a9FieTHz6yf2eHYvZnUTkGy_DAKcqVohbS6qCxLJ-= oOAT5kPkw13QSM4pIc-jC10$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...GSP...LWX...MHX...PHI...RAH...RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 40527440 40277397 39617407 39097437 37317565=20
36307665 35677769 35257893 35397955 35668005=20
35948038 36388017 36757932 37297844 38157752=20
39327662 40167588 40467534=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100611
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-101200-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0633
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
210 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Southern New England...Eastern Long Island...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100610Z - 101200Z

SUMMARY...Strong MCS approaching Long Island & slow moving,
isolated convection north of it across Southern New England.=20
Rates of 1.5-2"/hr and totals of 2-3.54" may present localized
possible flash flooding through early morning.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E 10.3um EIR loop shows a mature symmetric MCC
moving through the New York Bight toward eastern Long Island.
RADAR shows impressive MCV and stronger thunderstorm activity
extending eastward given stronger WAA along/ahead of the wave
increasing appearance of a solid occlusion to the overall wave.=20
This would suggest slowing northeastward propagation and
increasing rainfall duration. Given ample deep layer moisture of
1.75" and stronger flux noted by RAP analysis and upstream VWP out
of NJ; would support up to 2"/hr and possible 2-3" totals along
the MCV across LI and eventually into coastal SE CT/RI and SE MA.=20
Given higher FFG naturally through the area, flash flooding
potential is likely to be more urban in nature with this wave.

Further north into southern New England; RAP analysis and surface
observations support a remaining uncapped to slightly capped
region of 1000+ J/kg SBCAPE along the slowly northward advancing
warm front from the Upper-Hudson Valley across central CT toward
the Gulf of Maine. GOES-E WV shows highly positive
tilt/elongated trough axis across New England into the northern
Mid-Atlantic supporting DPVA while strong exiting jet streak over
90 kts at 3H across Interior New England providing strong right
entrance ascent and evacuation to the environment. Proximity to
the warm front also provides some weak low level shear to support
helicity to 50 m2/s2. As such, RADAR shows a few cells
developing across E NY, CT and MA that are narrow in nature but
have a weak rotation. Given similar ample moisture, cells should
have good efficiency and weak rotating updrafts will further
enhance moisture flux. While overall deep layer flow is strong
suggestive of progressive cell motions, the shear supports
Bunker's right moving supercell propagation suggests reduced
forward propagation allowing for increased rainfall duration.

So cells will have capability of 1.5-2"/hr rates but the weaker
instability will limit the overall width of the updraft and
potentially counteract the overall rainfall footprint/streaks.=20
Confidence is slightly increased given 00z Hi-Res CAM solutions
and 00z HREF output suggesting 3"/3hr of 10-30% and totals of 2-4"
remain possible through 12z. Given this is very close to areas
affected by heavy rainfall last evening, soils may still be prone
for decreased infiltration and higher run-off suggesting areas of
possible flash flooding may occur again tonight.=20=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!48d8sN7E6k38Kb5_SDhVWAMtIOesHhqqkydFWTSievfhIHQNeLZTPUDSW0Q1doBDCULM= pdOIGVHaUJrAGi_5uiDlaeY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43217211 42727125 42097060 41717053 41317090=20
41157146 40857219 40707286 41387305 41667377=20
42257386 42837312=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 100843
FFGMPD
NEZ000-101400-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0634
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
442 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Central Nebraska...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 100840Z - 101400Z

SUMMARY...A few hours of oblique WAA training band, poses narrow
axis of 2-3" totals and possible localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV and EIR loop depicts a progressive arc of
thunderstorms driven by an slightly above average but compact
shortwave over-topping the larger scale ridge ahead of the main
northern stream wave back over the Wyoming Rockies. While the
shortwave is sliding eastward, along with typical nocturnal
cyclonic turning, the LLJ is responding with continued 40-45kts of
southerly slowly veering southwesterly 850mb winds. This also
aligns with the western gradient of an enhanced moisture from
central KS through the Sandhills of NEB. Being on the western
edge of the convective line, there has been lingering unstable air
associated with the moisture axis remaining across a similar area
with MUCAPE values of 2000+ J/kg extending into KS. The passage
of the convective line also established a NNW to SSE boundary
across central NEB that now aligns from Nuckolls to Brown county.=20
VWP and surface observations show, LLJ remains more southerly not
having fully veered to the southwest, but strength of winds and
intersection with the boundary provide strong deep layer
convergence and isentropic ascent maximizing further northwest
along the boundary near Brown to Loup County. As such,
thunderstorms have been greatest cross this area; but with
700-500mb steering flow nearly parallel and opposite to the LLJ
and boundary; cells have a favorable orientation to repeat. This
orientation will shift slightly from NNW to SSE to more NW to SE
with time as the 700-500mb flow shifts eastward with the exiting
shortwave into central IA; but there will be sufficient overlap in
time and space for favorable repeating.

As this time, a limiting factor toward flash flooding is the
overall available moisture. Surface Tds in the 60s are
sufficient, CIRA LPW shows deepest moisture, particularly above
700mb is shifting eastward with the shortwave and the upstream
gradient is very tight allowing for greater overall dry air
entrainment. Still, with 1-1.5"/hr rates and potential for 2-4
hours of repeating, totals of 2-3" are possible. The other
limiting factor is proximity to the Sandhills itself, where
favorable infiltration of those lower rates are likely to mitigate
much flooding potential north of Valley and Custer county.=20
However, as LLJ veers more southwesterly, the expansion of
stronger boundary layer moisture convergence southward along the
training line, places counties southward where FFG values are less
than 1.5/hr and 3hr values are 2-2.5".

While Hi-Res CAMs are less aggressive with the overall totals and
trend toward quick evaporation of the line; this is a known
negative bias where WAA, particularly orthogonal isentropic ascent
tends to 'over-perform' the forecast guidance. Each HRRR run is
also a bit more aggressive toward increasing convection, as well,
providing some increased confidence this bias is once again
plausible. So, while not particularly high-end, nor over a great
areal extent, there is sufficient observational trends that an
incident or two of localized flash flooding due to 2-3" totals is
possible through early morning.=20=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-iWjdIqZQga1Vaa0bltm29zJcHfLLwGNX1UkreFTecMJC92-gNrw7o9_ARI8EKE_KbmI= boRkjSjE6P4AeKIUrWfQKG0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 42559933 42289852 41679780 41149742 40499787=20
40529880 41529964 42299979=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101651
FFGMPD
MEZ000-NHZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-102250-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0635
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1250 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Vermont and New Hampshire...Far Western Maine

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101650Z - 102250Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms anchored near the
higher terrain of the Green and White Mountains may result in
isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding going through
the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery in
conjunction with radar is showing the gradual development and
expansion of slow-moving shower and thunderstorm activity along
the higher terrain of the Green and White Mountains of Vermont and
New Hampshire respectively.

The activity is being strongly influenced by orographic ascent
within an increasingly unstable environment characterized by
MLCAPE values of about 1000 J/kg. PWs are relatively moist with
values up to about 1.5 standard deviations above normal, and this
will favor convective cells capable of producing heavy rainfall
rates of up to 1 to 2 inches/hour.

Going through the afternoon hours, the arrival of some shortwave
troughing/DPVA from southeast Canada in conjunction with
additional diurnal heating should promote some additional
expansion of convection that will be embedded within rather weak
steering flow. The cells will be aided by terrain-driven
circulations that may tend to allow for some of the cells to be
nearly stationary and anchored along the upslope areas of the
higher terrain.

The 12Z HREF and recent HRRR solutions suggest some localized 2 to
4+ inch rainfall amounts will be possible, and this coupled with
the rugged terrain of the Green and White Mountains may support
there being some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!59SAmOqy9OARqABRqHyfq1fG_bofZd2lctxYyrPdAtl0esD9lzDNhHg-6eqTVqUKFg8e= gIKVyQ0DkQY7YL_V2-9KKFM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BTV...GYX...

ATTN...RFC...TAR...NWC...

LAT...LON 45267109 45067051 44587050 43567113 42957178=20
42767239 42967331 43727347 44397329 44687296=20
44857234=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101803
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-SCZ000-TNZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0636
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
201 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Central Appalachians through the Carolina
Piedmont

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101800Z - 110000Z

Summary...Scattered instances of flash flooding expected across
the interior southern Mid Atlantic into the Carolina Piedmont.

Discussion...Visible satellite this afternoon continues to depict
a some hindrance of typical diurnal heating with scattered to
widespread cloud cover extending south to north across the
Carolinas into the Delmarva. Back into the interior southern Mid
Atlantic, pockets of clearing can be seen over the western
Carolinas with some enhanced cumulus development, mainly along and
west of I-85. Better solar insulation materialized across far
southern WV into southwest VA earlier today allowing for scattered
convective development where destabilization was maximized. The
expected convective cadence this afternoon is for slow clearing to
eventually give way to regional destabilization allowing scattered shower/thunderstorm pulses to initiate within the outlined area.=20

Sufficient buoyancy and reputable PWATs hovering between 1.8-2.1"
will present a reasonable environment for scattered heavy
convective cores later this afternoon, leading to rates between
1-2 inches/hour, on average. A few stronger cells across the
Carolina Piedmont could very well push closer to 2-3 inches/hour
however, especially in proximity to a defined surface trough
bisecting the region longitudinally based off the latest surface
analysis. This will put areas across the central portions of NC/SC
at the greatest threat for heavy rain and flash flooding and
overlapping areas that has seen their FFG's lower as a result of
previous convective impacts.=20

Recent hi-res deterministic models have inferred on the threat of
scattered convective activity materializing by mid-afternoon,
carrying into the early evening before waning as the activity will
be subject to mainly thermodynamic processes with a weak kinematic
aid of a meager shortwave rippling eastward out of the Tennessee
Valley. Shear will be negligible today which correlates to more
pulse convective modes and slower storm motions once activity
initiates. Any steering pattern is weak, but will offer a slow
advancement eastward as we move through the afternoon. Once we
reach sunset, expecting convection to slowly dissipate over the
eastern Carolinas with the loss of diurnal heating considering the
overall environmental evolution. This will leave a window of 6-8
hrs for the greatest convective threat, enough for HREFbm output
of 2-4+" scattered over the western Carolinas down through the
Piedmont.

The combination of slower mean storm motions and wet antecedent
conditions over much of western and central NC down through the
central SC Piedmont offers the risk of scattered flash flood
instances with the greatest threat within more urbanized zones.
Given lack of a true kinematic forcing and environmental bulk
shear, organized multi-cell clusters will be less common, thus
limiting the threat to flash flooding possible with more isolated
to scattered signals across portions of the southern Mid Atlantic.

Kleebauer

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5_KcLxHU90ogeDWr7pkPN2WBbovdm8FegwO1iHnEPRhZSjnD0Bd8qNEsJkYqoryaokfZ= 8-OwaKrvjT0G-P8PzOXpOG0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CAE...GSP...ILM...LWX...MRX...RAH...RLX...
RNK...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...RHA...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38527878 38117846 37187834 36647827 36427825=20
36017830 35697834 35437843 35117863 34737900=20
34527919 33987959 33787982 33648008 33588038=20
33558059 33528087 33518109 33608137 33728156=20
33908176 34068189 34238201 34398217 34548235=20
34808247 35238278 35688285 36018270 36238247=20
36418229 36628230 36808236 37028240 37248217=20
37458188 37638162 37728133 37868113 37968096=20
38058083 38218041 38267974 38427930=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101818
FFGMPD
NJZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-102218-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0637
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Northern Delmarva...Southern NJ

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101818Z - 102218Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally training showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the next few hours.
Additional areas of flash flooding are likely over the next few
hours.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar imagery shows an axis of slow-moving
and locally training showers and thunderstorms impacting portions
of the northern Delmarva and southern NJ. The convection has been
showing some cooling cloud tops over the last hour and is
generally focusing along a surface trough oriented in a
west-southwest to east-northeast fashion across the region.

Convergent low-level flow along this surface trough coupled with
the pooling of a moderately buoyant airmass characterized by
MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg should promote some additional
expansion of convection at least over the next few hours. The
airmass is quite moist too with PWs of 2.0 to 2.25 inches. This
environment will favor high rainfall rates of 1.5 to 2.5
inches/hour.

The latest HRRR guidance and a couple of the 12Z HREF members are
hinting at this axis of convection continuing to locally train
over the same area, and suggest some additional rainfall potential
of as much as 3 to 4+ inches.

Additional areas of flash flooding are likely at least over the
next few hours given the rainfall potential and locally sensitive
antecendent conditions.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8a0z_jaGgQGWVLBK-4_PptS6K1jkMXw91Y0DnLXo0FHNgn6QkHcf5IRfRGgLeuJQlGzJ= Re_6qzHCHy0lW4EJm4OIAfE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...

ATTN...RFC...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 39707471 39657428 39527418 39317440 39167471=20
39037553 39257590 39527553=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 101906
FFGMPD
VAZ000-NCZ000-110000-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0638
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Southeast VA...Northeast NC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 101905Z - 110000Z

SUMMARY...Slow-moving and locally training showers and
thunderstorms are expected to continue over the next few hours.
Additional areas of flash flooding are expected through the
remainder of the afternoon, and this will include a notable urban
flash flood threat to the Hampton Roads area.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E visible satellite imagery along
with dual-pol radar shows a southwest to northeast oriented axis
of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting the greater Hampton
Roads area of southeast VA, with a gradual increase in convection
seen developing across northeast NC. The activity is developing
and expanding coverage along a surface trough which is driving
convergent low-level flow within a very moist and unstable
environment.

MLCAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/kg are noted over eastern NC and
into far southeast VA, with PWs of 2.25+ inches. This has already
helped to contribute to rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches/hour with
the stronger storms, and these rates should be maintained at least
through the remainder of the afternoon hours.

The latest HRRR/RRFS guidance suggests some additional rainfall
totals of 3 to 4+ inches where some of these cells locally train
over the same area. Additional areas of flash flooding are likely
given the setup this afternoon, and this will include some notable
urban flash flooding concerns around Hampton Roads area in
particular.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!96QMFKc2MkiTiqhK3lIVMpQ6RHwa4z6nkJH6nqELAXD7KHxIJrhk0v7hyj4VYFuBtJaE= mecEzg-95JxZHJAaa-Y55OU$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...RHA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37317653 37257589 36517565 35507620 35127712=20
35487773 36477742 36997700=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102230
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110430-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0639
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
629 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern Nebraska and Western Iowa

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 102230Z - 110430Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms initiating along a surface
trough across eastern Nebraska are growing upscale with some
backbuilding, leading to an increasing flash flood threat.

DISCUSSION...GOES-East satellite imagery indicates that the
earlier line of elevated convection that moved through
northeastern Nebraska left behind several hours of clearer skies,
leading to enough daytime heating to initiate a new round of
surface-based thunderstorms. A surface trough extending through
eastern Nebraska from a surface low centered near northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska is providing a zone of convergence that
will serve as a focal point for continued convective initiation.
MLCAPE values of 2000-3500 J/kg across the region, combined with
30-40 knots of 0-6 km Bulk Shear, supports the development of
severe convection. Convection should begin as scattered
thunderstorms with some isolated supercells, then steadily growing
upscale into an organized MCS later in the period as the
upper-level shortwave energy rotates through and the existing
convection across eastern Colorado and western Kansas eventually
merges with the convection over eastern Nebraska as a larger MCS.

Although the 850 mb low-level jet of 20-30 knots is relatively
weak, there is significant moisture convergence occurring along
the axis of the surface trough, with a 19Z sounding at LBF
indicating a PW of 1.27" which is close to the 90th percentile
relative to climatology. Combined with a deep-layer mean
southwesterly flow of only 20-25 knots, relatively slow storm
motions and propagation vectors into the weak low-level jet
suggests that backbuilding and upscale growth over the next few
hours will lead to an increased risk for flash flooding. CAMs
guidance is in good agreement with this flash flood potential,
with HREF probabilities at 50-70% of 3-hr QPF exceeding 2". Flash
flood guidance values also drop off significantly from west to
east across Nebraska, given the moist antecedent conditions across
eastern Nebraska and western Iowa, so FFG is less than 2" across
the area of concern.

Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-UIYUdV548phRFqGcgYF6WTtP_p6Rt0cfwtD1dROZqkwxw0pd6rbLWD7oPxeUW-4mRgC= PIP4Mlo06IhfV0RRw26qNlc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...GID...LBF...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42909505 42259411 40979618 40269822 40269822=20
40329939 41559969 42529753=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 102323
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110522-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0640
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
723 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Northern IL and Southern WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 102322Z - 110522Z

SUMMARY...Increasing risk of flash flooding as coverage of
scattered thunderstorms expands along a warm front extending
across northern IL.

DISCUSSION...A warm front gradually lifting through northern
Illinois is providing a zone of surface convergence with
thunderstorms developing across eastern Iowa, northern Illinois,
and southern Wisconsin. MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg together
with a progressive, 500 mb trough swinging through will support
the maintenance of deep convection. Higher values of 0-6 km Bulk
Shear of 30-40 knots across eastern Iowa suggests that severe
convection may begin as discrete cells before growing upscale into
an MCS as the convection approaches the warm front. Meanwhile, a
simultaneous cluster of convection ongoing across northern
Illinois in a region of lower shear with slower storm motions is
likely to remain anchored along the warm front, posing a greater
flash flood risk.

Ample moisture with PW values ranging from 1.5-1.75" is in place
across the region, and CAMs guidance suggests an increasing risk
for convection along the warm front to backbuild and remain
quasi-stationary, particularly in extreme northern Illinois and
along the border with Wisconsin. HREF 6-hr QPF flash flood
guidance exceedance probabilities are 40-50% in that localized
region. Latest radar imagery also suggests that the cluster of
thunderstorms presently across north-central Illinois is beginning
to backbuild toward the west along the warm front, leading to the
likelihood of training convection for the next several hours. As
the separate area of convection across eastern Iowa moves toward
northern Illinois, the upscale growth of the resultant MCS will
further increase the likelihood of flash flooding.

Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ibSnY1OEufY6Di4WkU0gDKdZT5RzN6G6RJ9FODcWJichy94ISaPHTb56Gw84rAS7P8z= wL27Jres2ideFrNzV0H3wnA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DVN...LOT...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43649099 43058915 42198778 41548772 41758919=20
42079013 42559077 43119117=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110144
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-110542-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0641
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
943 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 110142Z - 110542Z

SUMMARY...Complex cell mergers associated with several clusters of
ongoing convection are contributing to the possibility of isolated
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Several clusters of convection are ongoing across
eastern North Carolina in an environment of weak deep-layer mean
flow of 10-15 knots out of the west-southwest. As a result,
erratic storm motions are being driven by the complex interactions
of mesoscale cold pools. Although peak daytime heating has passed,
MLCAPE is still in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. Furthermore, as the
500 mb shortwave trough axis rotates through, the convection is
likely to sustain itself for a few more hours.

The atmosphere is still extremely moist with the 00Z MHX sounding
indicating a PW value of 2.18", which exceeds the 90th percentile
relative to climatology. This pool of moisture across eastern
North Carolina and the Outer Banks is well represented by the CAMs
guidance, and HREF 3-hr QPF probabilities of exceeding 2" is
40-50% for the region, with probabilities of exceeding the 6-hour
flash flood guidance at 25-40%. These values suggest that although
the dynamics are not conducive for a sustained, widespread threat
of flash flooding, the slow storm motions, erratic cell mergers,
and high moisture content suggest that there is at least an
isolated flash flood risk.

Shieh

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Z0BeZzSWFrCgdpcPv7xO2xvhdO53_hgGW3BAKZeW5jmVFM3lM-fxsgA3OlDy16FNxo3= J6lI5bmt3cPiYIoibS40LlY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...ILM...MHX...RAH...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 36277616 35197542 34117702 33717882 34167944=20
35187911 35967786=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110346
FFGMPD
INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0642
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1146 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Areas affected...Northern Illinois...Southeast Iowa...Ext
Northwest IND...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110345Z - 110930Z

SUMMARY...Lead shortwave with flanking line development and
potential for repeating across areas of Northern IL through the
overnight hours. Hourly rates to 2"/hr suggest 3-5" totals are
possible, resulting in likely incidents of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Regional RADAR mosaic depicts a mature MCS with
strengthening MCV over N IL with moderate shield precipitation
straddling the IL/WI line. A surface wave can be analyzed
southwest of RPJ with stationary front across NE IL into northern
IND, while the trailing boundary extends across into central IA.
GOES-E WV and RAP analysis shows the stronger parent shortwave is
located much further north across central WI; though a stronger
northern stream wave continues to organize upstream across the
Missouri River Valley. As such, the combination is helping to
retain strong broad southerly LLJ providing WAA and deep moisture
convergence in proximity the surface boundary; winds are 20-25kts
at 850mb and remain confluent to the shortwave across WI. As
such, solid convergence remains along the upstream flanking line
across NW IL with thunderstorms still cooling even as the
instability has be diminishing relative to upstream as well.=20
Downstream, even lower CAPE values toward NW IND shows the slow
erosion of the convective cells and warming tops.=20

CIRA LPW shows 850-700mb layer has been increasing (though recent
uptick is likely due to a particular over-estimate of values since
01-02z) but the pattern shows the flux to maintain near 2.0" total
PWat values to maintain rainfall efficiency to the convection.=20
Southwest to west-southwest instability flux will also support
back-building potentially across into E IA, though capping is a
tad stronger. Still, redevelopment in NW IL with slow east to
east-southeast propagation will allow for tracks of repeating and
potential for multiple hours of 1.5-2"/hr rates. Localized totals
of 3-5" are not out of the realm of possibility especially in
proximity to I-80. Given FFG values of 1.5-2"/hr and 3hr
generally around 2-3"; a few incidents of flash flooding along the
line are considered likely. Of particular concern, is upstream
development across NEB into central IA, that may intersect with
this area toward pre-dawn and will watch the evolution
closely...an upstream MPD will also be issued within the next hour
or so.

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!_y3-33BUqIaHK8xEJuHa3-D-W21F2gMVg6eOjrv7yE-1Jx8VGqxkXeHIhrsOtEpWICoD= M0HDfsaoTn8tHbT0_FDF_E0$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...DVN...ILX...LOT...

ATTN...RFC...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 42428874 42408787 41958730 41478709 40898745=20
40618904 40629034 40789204 41069279 41609294=20
41929244 41899131 41979045 42059000 42168949=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 110431
FFGMPD
IAZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-110930-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0643
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1231 AM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...Eastern NEB...Western & Central Iowa...Far
Northeast SD...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 110430Z - 110930Z

SUMMARY...Slow moving thunderstorms near mid-level low, with
faster moving cluster crossing central IA. Additional 2-4" totals
with repeating cells likely to continue localized incidents of
flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...Complex mid-level evolution continues to provide a
favorable environment for strong thunderstorms with high rainfall
efficiency; some locations where convection will be more
progressive but stronger, while others may be weaker, but slower
but both capable of 2-4" add'l totals, likely resulting in
scattered incidents of flash flooding.

GOES-E WV suite shows stronger main wave over southeast SDak,
while a jet max is streaking out of central Rockies supporting an
upstream shortwave crossing southern NEB. Binary interaction
between the systems is leading to the main wave sharpening and
stalling with strong LLJ response with 35-40kts of 850mb flow
crossing out of the Central Plains, intersecting with a stationary
front that extends from the central NEB/KS boarder north to a low
along the Missouri River in far SW IA before extending nearly due
east across southern IA. Remaining area of highly unstable air
exists at this intersection across SE NEB into southwest/central
IA with 3000-3500 J/kg of CAPE and strong moisture flux bringing
surface Tds into the low 70s and overall total PWats to 2-2.2"
values. Strong, fairly orthogonal isentropic ascent will continue
to support stronger convection near the low and eastward.=20
Clusters will have 2.5"/hr rates, but deep layer steering flow
parallel to the boundary should be quick to limit overall totals
with the initial burst to 1.5-2" though continued upstream
convergence should support back-building and training across
southwest to central IA. Totals of 2-4" are likely to induce
incidents of flash flooding through to 09z.

NE NEB/NW IA/SE SDAK...
With the deep layer wave stationary, but deepening, the LLJ is
responding by backing back from southerly to southeasterly along
an inverted surface to mid-level trof/TROWAL-like feature along
the Missouri River. As the undercutting jet streak and associated
vort max moves across S NEB, convection near the main center will
have reduced forward speeds and evolve with similar note to a
SHaRS (Subtle Heavy Rainfall Signature), where cores of cells are
very slow moving, but produce moderate rainfall in weaker
1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE; but in exhausting that well have a few
hours to increases those localized totals to 2-4" totals. Some
weak cell motion further southeast along the trof/TROWAL may
support some repeating as well, but overall more chaotic cell
motions are also likely to induce localize incidents of flash
flooding especially given lower FFG values (1-1.5"/hr & 1.5-2"/3hr
across the Missouri River Valley).=20

Gallina

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9vMQT2V05cNdM-4MctxovtSvRzOAZI-yXiFmAqbpXgzSNgnyZEIhKvXV19K9yLcY7Asz= 6hEvdUNd90t-0sMLmwV7coY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43429810 43249704 42549493 41919312 41709258=20
41269250 40929265 40949417 40999511 41179664=20
42249754 42879825 43289847=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111646
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-112245-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0644
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1245 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...Central and Eastern IA...Northern MO...Northwest IL...Southwest WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 111645Z - 112245Z

SUMMARY...Expanding clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms
are expected going through the afternoon hours. Locally moist
antecedent conditions along with high rainfall rates and some
cell-training concerns will foster a likelihood for scattered
areas of flash flooding.

DISCUSSION...The latest GOES-E IR/WV suite shows a strong
shortwave trough over the central Plains gradually advancing into
areas of the Upper Midwest which is fostering the eastward advance
of low pressure along a frontal boundary draped over the region.
Already there are some cooling convective cloud tops noted over
north-central IA as strengthening warm air advection and the
pooling of strong instability occurs ahead of this low center.

A well-defined west to east oriented instability gradient extends
across central and eastern IA through western IL, with MUCAPE
values across the region on the order of 1000 to 2000 J/kg.
However, areas near and south of the front going down into
northern MO show substantially stronger instability fields with
MUCAPE values here of 3000 to 4000 J/kg. Over the next few hours,
stronger shortwave-driven DPVA, along increasing moisture and
instability transport along and north of the boundary should favor
an increase in elevated convection for especially central and
eastern IA, with convective clusters potentially becoming aligned
in a west to east training fashion given their orientation to the
deeper layer steering flow.

However, by mid to late-afternoon, much more surface-based warm
sector convection should initiate and expand in coverage across
southern IA and northern MO ahead of the shortwave energy/low
center, and especially as any remaining low-level CINH is eroded.
Effective bulk shear parameters will be on the order of 30 to 40+
kts, which coupled with strong instability will yield a
substantial mixture of multi-cell and supercell convection.

Modestly anomalous PWs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches are in place, which
coupled with the expected organized nature of the convection
should support rainfall rates reaching easily into the 1.5 to 2.5
inch/hour range. High rainfall rates and some cell-training
concerns along with cell-mergers may yield some localized rainfall
totals of 3 to 5 inches.

The antecedent conditions over portions of central and eastern IA,
northwest IL and southwest WI are relatively moist from recent
rainfall, and this coupled with the additional heavy rains will
likely encourage somewhat more efficient runoff. Scattered areas
of flash flooding are expected, and there will also be locally
notable urban flash flooding concerns. There are drier conditions
noted farther south over southern IA and northern MO which will
temper the flash flood threat here a bit more, but even here, the
high rainfall rates here will promote a well-defined concern for
some flash flooding.

Orrison

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7hBwOA0DfbmNPwr6YH1P9KcsiumAqIdXQYW7Omg9Ji34u1qecO7DuQsXJwCmt4LlCh0C= yJIqo-mAW_Xij6GRQ8BVwMg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43449143 43298957 42488904 41638942 40749061=20
39609256 39459391 40009432 40559430 40939430=20
41389436 42159470 42559456 43119352=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111829
FFGMPD
MSZ000-112228-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0645
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111828Z - 112228Z

Summary...Convection is growing in scale and could align along a
west-northwest to east-southeast axis shortly. Hourly rain
amounts to 3" with local totals to 5" are possible, which could
lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

Discussion...Thunderstorms across MS over the past couple hours
have been forming in a very moist and unstable environment, with
precipitable water values of 2-2.25" and ML CAPE in western MS
above 3500 J/kg. Westerly flow in the low-levels has been
steering convection generally west to east, but radar imagery is
implying the beginning of a cold pool forming across east-central
MS. Effective bulk shear is 15-20 kts, which appears sufficient
to lead to loose organization.

The expectation is for an outflow boundary to shift south and
somewhat westward with time, which should lead to a more northwest
to southeast alignment with time downwind of the instability pool,
which should retrograde somewhat farther in the next several
hours. While hourly rain totals to 3" are possible, there's
evidence that at least one location near Louisville MS managed 2"
in 26 minutes, likely due to the strong instability present, which
would bring instantaneous rain rates to 5"+. The 12z HREF
probabilities of 0.5"+ appears to be doing a much better job than
the 06z RRFS probs in this area. Hourly amounts to 3" with local
amounts to 5" could cause flash flooding, particularly within
urban areas.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!-7UT_kAtlZUQ5Daf03T1A48rQA6yNsDwqrK3Jy36QvQbuIPOSGEqc0ltEx_egj1ZN8HL= tmU4eRCovDDSLU0CboudA3k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...MOB...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 33298971 32788860 31748855 31488939 31799030=20
32519079 33139051=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 111902
FFGMPD
NCZ000-SCZ000-120100-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0646
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
301 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of the western Carolinas

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 111900Z - 120100Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to cluster
across southwest NC. As the move east-southeast, hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rain have formed across
southwest NC. While individual storms are randomly showing storm
tracks to the east to east-northeast, the whole group appears to
be propagating east-southeast along a moisture and instability
gradient within a region of 700 hPa thermal difluence where the
18z observations show some cyclonic wind shear. Precipitable
water values of 2"+ are evident, and the 12z sounding at
Greensboro NC and Peachtree City GA showed effective bulk shear of
15-20 kts, which tends to be enough for loose organization. ML
CAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg inhabits the region.

The expectation is for some additional upscale growth while the
storms move east to east-southeast at 10 kts. Hourly rain amounts
to 2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible in this area, which
given the topography and flash flood guidance values could lead to
isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6ZZ-I2gYvEGGLiFa490CphhLTvLyG1orFEks5D3aBVPZqIxV8PYkmGSHHoC40B_wGtkk= N28aXj7sgiTbtS4Lu7okRdM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON 36018216 35798122 34858060 34148113 34218215=20
34708291 35578305=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112010
FFGMPD
FLZ000-GAZ000-120209-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0647
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
410 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...portions southern GA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112009Z - 120209Z

Summary...Backbuilding thunderstorms with possible mergers with
activity approaching from the south are expected to continue to
lead to hourly amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4".

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms have formed within a moist
and unstable air mass with precipitable water values of 2"+ and ML
CAPE of 2500-3000 J/kg. Effective bulk shear is roughly 20 kts
per the Peachtree City GA and Jacksonville FL soundings, which
appears to have been sufficient for some level of convective
organization, as there have been backbuilding signatures as of
late.=20

Both the 12z HREF and 06z RRFS probabilities are stuggling in this
area, with the HREF indicating western areas fairly well and the
RRFS having some concept of issues in more eastern areas within
the MPD area. Because of this, am having to rely upon conceptual
models more than usual, which leads to confidence being no better
than average. The existing thunderstorm activity should build a
little further before ending from west to east as thunderstorm
outflow from activity to the south tries to exhaust the available
instability. As outflow from the two convective areas intersect,
there could be a tendency for thunderstorms with heavy rain to
"zipper" along the outflow boundary intersection from west to
east. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" could
lead to isolated to widely scattered flash flood concerns into
this evening due to backbuilding, cell mergers, or new convective
development along the upcoming outflow boundary intersection.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!92xOtsS95HrhWgJk8E-6Kq3XUVNk-Fb-3SWPV_7tLnl-_c1CrHK701RShxvBL4MN3nHl= Pq2TUsN9NVDnwF6_NKmojWg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 32908297 31548125 31028130 30558139 30718222=20
31668346 31858410 32278424=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112049
FFGMPD
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-120247-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0648
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
448 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of southeast WY, northeast CO, &
southwest NE

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112047Z - 120247Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to increase in
number across the area, with a couple showing backbuilding
character. Hourly rain amounts to 2" with local totals to 4" are
possible.

Discussion...Upslope flow behind a pair of fronts moving south,
down the east side of the Rockies is leading to moistening in the
central High Plains. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8" exist
per VAD wind profiles. CIN is reducing at this time, and ML CAPE
of 1000-2000 J/kg is approaching the region from the northeast,
likely due to cooling at 700 hPa and moistening of the column from
that direction. Effective bulk shear of 20-35 kts exists in this
region, sufficient for convective organization.=20

The guidance appears to develop a convective complex in the short
term near the CO/WY border that moves through a region of 700 hPa
temperature difluence east-southeast across northeast CO,
potentially tracking across a small pocket of convection
occasionally backbuilding near the NE/CO border. Given the
environmental parameters, such as moisture and instability
increasing over the next several hours, this evolution makes
sense. However, the possible thunderstorm complex track could end
up being steered more southerly across northeast CO, so extended
the region a little south of the mesoscale guidance which is close
to where recent RAP guidance has indicated 700 hPa convergence.=20
Such a complex should be capable of hourly rain amounts to 2" and
local amounts to 4", which given the flash flood guidance values
in the region, could produce widely scattered to scattered flash
flooding where cells train or mesocyclones manage to form.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9q68Y-tpGDBpPwpBbrsxeLz8sdq6iSYY2-e-Rk3Q2K9mJW5jHeqrWz4UVw2Ih5LE56Dm= 0GzI6gklGB-wy67omucQgjk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...GLD...LBF...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...NWC...

LAT...LON 41570451 41430300 40850196 39810223 39840393=20
40500546 41120617 41450587=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112155
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120354-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0649
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
554 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...NM/CO border into the TX/OK Panhandles

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112154Z - 120354Z

Summary...Thunderstorms near the CO/NM border are starting to
increase in number. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals
to 4" are possible, which could lead to scattered flash flood
concerns.

Discussion...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to increase
in number near a front in the vicinity of the CO/NM border.=20
Precipitable water values of 0.75-1", ML CAPE of 500 j/kg inhabits
their neighborhood, with higher values lying to the east.=20
Effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts also lies in the vicinity, which
should organize the convective activity.

Increasing low-level inflow, moisture, and instability should lead
to a growing convective complex that moves into the TX Panhandle
with time. The increasing moisture/instability may lead to a
fairly broad convective profile as any outflow boundaries from the
convective mass cause periods of new convective growth and
reorganization. While the front itself appears to hang up, the
700 hPa thermal difluence indicates that a propagation to the
southeast or even south-southeast should be expected over time
should occur near and south of a zone of wind convergence apparent
in the 21z observations. Both the 18z HREF and 12z RRFS show this
sort of propagation, which may be aided by new convection moving
near the dryline south of the front. The moisture and instability
support hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4". With
flash flood guidance being modest in the region, this could lead
to widely scattered to scattered flash flood concerns.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7qnBw3yoyyC4QCgVpkbzHHPT6htmr4um8N8yTi1d4TyI1YkKxtJft_hVGGsaQ3_9M2Q9= 8-ZxTnKSJso_YdazQHfo3Xs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...LUB...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 37160373 36010157 34650197 34300354 35160498=20
36170525 37020498=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112221
FFGMPD
WIZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-120419-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0650
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
620 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...portions of the Upper Midwest

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 112219Z - 120419Z

Summary...An incoming convective line with preceding thunderstorms
is expected to lead to cell mergers in the near term. Hourly rain
amounts to 2.5" and local totals to 4" remain likely through 02z,
and possible thereafter. Scattered to numerous areas of flash
flooding are anticipated.

Discussion...An MCV appears to be forming across northeast IA in
association with a broadening and maturing convective complex over
the Upper Midwest. Precipitable water values are near 2". ML
CAPE up to 3500 J/kg lies within the warm sector. Effective bulk
shear of 30-45 kts is helping to organize the convective area.

In the near term, cell mergers between the incoming line and
preceding convection along with random mesocyclones are expected
to lead to hourly rain amounts to 2.5" with local amounts to 4"
until at least 02z. Thereafter, a narrowing convective footprint
is expected as it reduces the instability pool currently in the
warm sector and the convective line winnows and picks up the pace.
Still, random mesocyclones along the line after 02z could lead to
a LWEP or QLCS structure for at least a couple more hours which
would lead to locally heavy rainfall. Some portions of the region
-- particularly northern IL & portions of Chicago -- have seen
heavy rainfall recently, which has led to low flash flood
guidance. Scattered to numerous flash flood events are expected
through 02z, even outside urban areas, before becoming more
scattered to widely scattered thereafter.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7Pgb-1FuaLDx04VaBZ-oBegYbYeEWKkWJYrgr88yWUqV8asucDTVdmYB1Bx8MdEMF6It= xmZ7l2X_4IHxq_uda6li5_w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...DMX...DVN...EAX...ILX...LOT...LSX...MKX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON 43269062 43258926 42508784 41798763 40988958=20
40029112 39239240 39059416 39729497 41109433=20
41709295 42099149 42739114=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112237
FFGMPD
SCZ000-GAZ000-120135-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0651
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
636 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...GA/SC border into central SC

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112235Z - 120135Z

Summary...Thunderstorms are developing along a more linear
structure and may be about to train near and ahead of an outflow
boundary intersection. Hourly amounts to 3" with local amounts to
5" are possible.

Discussion...There has been a resurgence in convective activity
from far northeast GA into central SC within a moist and unstable
environment near an imminent outflow boundary collision.=20
Precipitable water values remain 2". ML CAPE is 3000+ J/kg.=20
Effective bulk shear is 20-25 kts.

The guidance indicates that the activity with heavy rainfall could
hold on for another few hours. Hourly amounts to 3" and local
totals to 5" remain possible where convection is quasi-stationary
and/or trains.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9iR5aGrRatW0XC2qFrAVhvmO5PVjIY5pCahXoxuTP6M-483ouw7M8nBZ0OAeBc4orBL5= kA2ZImBEC8BMqcXFYw3WoxQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...

ATTN...RFC...ALR...NWC...

LAT...LON 34688347 34558211 33287975 32468033 32218125=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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AWUS01 KWNH 112357
FFGMPD
OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120256-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0652
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
756 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Areas affected...in and near portions of southeast CO

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 112356Z - 120256Z

Summary...Thunderstorms with heavy rain are increasing in coverage
north of MPD #649. Hourly rain amounts to 2.5" and local amounts
to 4" are possible.

Discussion...Thunderstorms with heavy rain have been developing
west and south of Pueblo CO near a stalling front and moving
little, sometimes chaotically, during their life cycle.=20
Precipitable water values are 0.75-1". ML CAPE is 500-2000 J/kg
in their vicinity. Effective bulk shear of ~35 kts lies in the
vicinity which could organize the convection.

Over the next few hours, these storms should have enough moisture
and instability to work with to persist. Hourly rain amounts to
2.5" with local totals to 4" are possible. The mesoscale guidance
(HREF and RRFS) show that convection this far north could persist
for another several hours. Chose a valid time that matches MPD
#649 when the broader situation in this portion of the High Plains
can be reevaluated.

Roth

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!42TqqdZZZEBDr7JlmVIYQz46cem66hyKUozaUKeLEXAqclUlNujy6RPZzmv8MnHX3nv_= FXX8BCMM38BcoWZD_X5fiBg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...AMA...BOU...DDC...PUB...

ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC...

LAT...LON 38730583 37840324 36940146 36500189 37140344=20
37260457 36860530 37670571=20

=3D =3D =3D
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