ACUS48 KWNS 020859
SWOD48
SPC AC 020857

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Some severe weather is possible on Day 5/Sunday and Day6/Monday
across portions of northern Montana and North Dakota as moderate
instability builds into the area with moderate mid-level flow
southeast of a trough across western Canada. The evolution and
timing of this trough remains uncertain and therefore, no severe
weather probabilities will be added at this time.

Beyond this timeframe, moderate to strong instability is forecast
across much of the central and eastern CONUS for much of the
extended forecast period with widespread thunderstorm activity
likely. Despite this storm coverage and instability, organized
severe weather seems unlikely given mostly weak deep-layer
shear/flow.

..Bentley.. 07/02/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 030859
SWOD48
SPC AC 030858

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
During the extended forecast period, a mid-level ridge will build
across the InterMountain West. Aside from the primary ridge, there
will be several mid-level shortwave troughs throughout the flow
across the Northwest and also from the Great Lakes to the Atlantic
coast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected throughout the
period, but stronger mid-level flow/shear should mostly stay north
of the stronger instability early in the period.

At some point next week (mid week according to the GFS and late next
week into the weekend ECMWF) mid-level northwesterly flow will
likely strengthen across the Plains (to the east of the primary
ridge). Whenever this occurs, the pattern would favor severe MCSs
given the forecast strong instability and moderate deep-layer shear.
However, the uncertainty in the upper-level pattern remains too
great to provide an accurate forecast of the timing and location of
the greatest severe weather threat toward the middle to late part of
next week.

..Bentley.. 07/03/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 040842
SWOD48
SPC AC 040841

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will gradually build over the Southwest while mainly
zonal mid-level flow persists over the northern CONUS through next
week. A relatively nebulous surface pattern will be the norm through
the extended range. Rich low-level moisture will overspread the
CONUS east of the Rockies Days 4-8/next Monday-Friday, supporting
scattered thunderstorm development over much of the Great Plains
into the MS Valley, and the Southeast into the Northeast. The best
chance for at least isolated strong to potentially severe storms in
the upcoming week would be across the north-central CONUS. Here, the
low-level moisture will advect northward beneath relatively cooler
temperatures and modest northwesterly flow/shear aloft. However,
given the nebulous and weakly forced environment, confidence is too
low to delineate severe probabilities over the north-central U.S.
for any given day.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 050848
SWOD48
SPC AC 050846

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0346 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will build across the Southwest and remain in place
this upcoming week into next weekend. Relatively zonal mid-level
flow will persist over the northern CONUS through the extended
forecast period, with multiple embedded impulses expected to track
eastward within the zonal flow. As the mid-level impulses traverse
the northern Plains, isolated strong to severe storm development
will be possible given the presence of ample buoyancy. However,
there are appreciable differences in the placement and timing of
these impulses among medium-range guidance members. Therefore,
severe probabilities have been withheld since confidence is
currently low regarding where and when organized clusters of severe
storms will develop.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 060830
SWOD48
SPC AC 060829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper ridge will remain in place across the Southwest while zonal
mid-level flow continues to support embedded impulses traversing the
northern CONUS this week into next weekend. The first notable
mid-level impulse, which will bring severe potential to the central
U.S. in the Days 2-3 time-frame, will approach the East Coast while
slowing its forward advance. The impulse should reach the East Coast
by Day 4 (Wednesday), providing adequate lift for at least scattered thunderstorms through the remainder of the week. Given preceding
rich low-level moisture, ample buoyancy will be available to support
at least isolated strong storms with potentially damaging gusts.

A more pronounced mid-level trough will approach the Northern Plains
in the Days 4-5 (Wednesday-Thursday) period, resulting in strong
surface troughing and the northward advection of rich low-level
moisture. Medium range guidance consensus shows that strong
instability will precede the upper/surface troughs, favoring the
development of severe storms. The first chance for severe storms
will be over the western Dakotas on Wednesday as the upper trough
approaches from the Northern Rockies. Upper support in this region
does not currently appear robust, so severe storms may occur on a
more isolated basis (hence no severe probabilities introduced at
this time). However, there is medium range guidance agreement in the
upper trough ejecting into the northern Plains on Day 5 (Thursday),
with some guidance suggesting that instability could become extreme.
Though it is difficult to confidently pinpoint storm mode this far
in advance, guidance hints at the development of a persistent,
elongated convective system, which may be capable of supporting all
severe hazards, especially severe winds. Severe probabilities have
been added to address this scenario.

As the pronounced mid-level trough progresses eastward, more
organized severe storms are possible over the MS Valley and perhaps
points east Day 6 onward. However, the intensity, coverage, and
location of severe potential will be highly dependent on the
evolution of convection from previous days, which is hard to know
this far in advance. Therefore, severe probabilities have been
withheld this outlook.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 070844
SWOD48
SPC AC 070842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The Southwest upper ridge will gradually flatten as a more
progressive mid-level flow regime becomes established over the
northern CONUS later this week into early next week. Multiple
pronounced mid-level troughs, with cooler temperatures aloft, will
traverse the north-central U.S. and overspread rich low-level
moisture. Strong buoyancy will precede these troughs, and upon
lifting of this unstable airmass, at least scattered organized
thunderstorm development should ensue, with multiple rounds of
strong to severe storms possible.

...Day 4 (Thursday) - Northern Plains...
The first in a series of mid-level troughs will eject into the
northern Plains on Day 4/Thursday, encouraging surface lee troughing
across the central and northern Plains. Dewpoints into the 70s F,
beneath 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates, will support strong to
locally extreme instability by afternoon peak heating. The ejection
of the upper trough will provide enough upper support for scattered thunderstorm development. Increasing westerly flow with height will
result in straight, elongated hodographs. Supercells should be the
main mode of convection, at least initially, with severe wind and
hail the primary threats.

...Days 5-6 (Friday-Saturday) - Midwest toward the Great Lakes...
The main mid-level trough will continue to slowly approach the Upper
MS Valley as a preceding mid-level impulse continues to advance
eastward. Potential exists for renewed thunderstorm development for
portions of the Upper MS Valley and Midwest on Friday, spreading
east with upper trough advancement toward the Great Lakes on
Saturday. Rich low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will promote strong instability in the warm sector, amid
modest vertical wind shear. Somewhere in this region, strong to
severe storms are likely, with severe wind/hail the main concerns on
both Friday and Saturday. The timing and location of thunderstorm
initiation will be highly dependent on the position of remnant
outflow boundaries from storms during previous days. Such details
are quite challenging to point out this far in advance, precluding
severe probabilities at this time, though probabilities will likely
be needed in future outlooks.

...Days 7-8 (Sunday-Monday) - Upper Mississippi Valley...
The next in a series of mid-level troughs will traverse the
north-central CONUS toward the end of the period. Medium-range
guidance consensus depicts extreme instability (i.e. well over 4000
J/kg MLCAPE) preceding this trough, along with strong enough
westerly mid-level flow and accompanying vertical wind shear. As
such, another episode of organized severe storms is possible in the Sunday/Monday time-frame. However, given the seasonal weak forcing
associated with this second low-amplitude trough, run-to-run
guidance consistency is desired before severe probabilities are
delineated.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 080818
SWOD48
SPC AC 080817

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0317 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The overall current large-scale pattern will persist through this
forecast period, albeit with minor day-to-day variations. More
specifically, a mid-level ridge will persist across the western US,
although its center will meander from the Southwest US to off the
coast of California and back; a series of shortwave troughs of
varying intensity will quickly move across the northern Plains; and
a very warm, moist environment will remain entrenched across the
eastern US.

This overall pattern suggests episodic bouts of severe thunderstorms
on any given day. However, the timing and location of specific
episodes will be tied to mesoscale details and impacts from prior
days' convection which have low predictability on time scales of
this forecast period. As such, low confidence in the details of
required to identify any of these severe events currently precludes
any probabilistic delineation at this time.

That said, there are a couple of scenarios being monitored for
potential future highlights. The first is the potential for severe
storms across the southern Plains on Saturday or Sunday associated
with a residual boundary/front. However, impacts from a potential
overnight mesoscale convective system moving from the High Plains
into the Southern Plains on Friday night into Saturday lead to
little confidence in the placement of any boundaries and the
resulting severe potential.

Another potential is for severe convection across northern Minnesota
and the Upper Great Lakes early next week associated with a stronger
shortwave trough moving through southern Canada. However, guidance
continues to show high variance regarding the strength of moisture
return, degree of instability, and timing of the shortwave itself to
preclude unconditional severe probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 07/08/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 090820
SWOD48
SPC AC 090818

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
The overall large-scale pattern looks to remain characterized by mid-to-upper-level ridging across the western United States with a
zonal to broadly cyclonic flow across the northern tier of the US
through the forecast period. At the same time, rich/moist low-level
moisture looks to remain entrenched across much of the eastern US,
sustained in part by broad, southerly flow, albeit with some
fluctuations in raw values. Global models continue to be bullish on
a seasonably strong cold front pushing south through much of the
central US late in the forecast period, ushering in a cooler/drier
airmass.

Strong-to-locally severe thunderstorms will be possible somewhere
across the eastern CONUS every day of the forecast period. However,
with synoptic-scale forcing/dynamics primarily constrained to
Canada, most thunderstorms will be determined by
sub-synoptic/mesoscale details dictated by/reinforced with each
prior day's convection. Thus, confidence is too low in any one
location on any given day to introduce unconditional severe
probabilities at this time.

However, some areas/scenarios of interest to monitor include the
southern Great Plains on Days 4-5/Saturday-Sunday as a moist, weakly
capped environment will exist in proximity to an increasing diffuse
surface boundary. Other areas include the East Coast most afternoons
and the along and ahead of seasonably strong cold front pushing
south through the Great Plains from Days 6-8.

For each of the areas of interest/scenarios of interest above, weak effective-layer shear stemming from generally weak tropospheric flow
will be a limiting factor for a more organized severe potential and
confidence to introduce unconditional probabilities.

..Marsh.. 07/09/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 100818
SWOD48
SPC AC 100816

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0316 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

...DISCUSSION...
At the start of the forecast period, the mid-level pattern will
generally be zonal across much country, with the greatest height
gradient found across the northern United States. By the middle of
next week, a short-wave trough moving within the broader flow regime
will amplify the height field across the northern Rockies before
moving into the central US. The overall pattern recognition would
suggest the potential for at least isolated severe thunderstorms
ahead of this feature across then northern Plains into the Upper
Great Lakes. However, model run-to-run timing differences along with inter-model timing differences precludes the ability to identify 15% unconditional probabilities on any given day.

Associated with the aforementioned mid-level trough, a surface-cold
front will push south through much of the Plains and into the East.
Additional thunderstorms will be likely along the front, however,
the location of the front on any given day will be strongly
influenced by previous days' convection. As such, when coupled with
the uncertainty in the timing of any mid-level wave, predictability
is too low to identify unconditional probabilities at this time.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 110841
SWOD48
SPC AC 110840

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A surface cold front across the southern Great Plains early in the
period will quickly redevelop northward into the northern Plains in
response to strong lee cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains.
This cyclogenesis will occur in response to a positive-tilt
short-wave trough moving through the broadly zonal mid-level flow
across the northern US.

This front will move back south during the period as a seasonably
strong high pressure builds southward into the central US in the
wake of the aforementioned short-wave trough. Thunderstorms are
likely to develop in the vicinity of the front/aggregate outflow
boundary each afternoon as it moves south. However, given the lack
of significant flow amplification as the mid-level wave crosses the
northern US, it is likely that thunderstorms will remain displaced
south of the requisite effective-layer shear needed to promote an
organized severe threat identifiable at this time range.

One exception to the idea that storms will be displaced from the
better shear may take place on Monday/Day-4 across portions of North
Dakota. Here, low-level moisture will surge northward in response to
the aforementioned northern High Plains lee cyclogenesis. Steep
mid-level lapse rates will overspread the northern Great Plains
during the day, yielding most-unstable CAPE values ranging from 1000
J/kg to perhaps 3000 J/kg depending on model guidance.

However, run-to-run inconsistency in the space and time evolution of
relevant features leads to little confidence in identifying where
any overlap of thunderstorms, instability, and effective-layer shear
might support severe thunderstorms. However, if model guidance
begins to converge on potential scenarios, probabilistic delineation
may become warranted in subsequent forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 120731
SWOD48
SPC AC 120730

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Several shortwave impulses are forecast to move through
low-amplitude upper troughing over the northern tier of the U.S.
during the Day 4-8 period. At the surface, a cold front is expected
to develop south/southeast across portions of the northern/central
Plains and Upper Midwest on Days 4-5/Tue-Wed. Given a moist and
unstable airmass ahead of this feature, some severe potential is
possible from the central Plains to the Upper Midwest. However,
medium range guidance shows large spread in the location and timing
of the front and any associated convection, resulting in low
predictability.

Later in the period, strong upper ridging will develop over the
Southeast. Some severe potential could continue eastward across the
Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic around Days 5-6/Wed-Thu as the
aforementioned cold front stalls in response to the building
Southeast ridge. However, large-scale ascent and deep-layer flow
will remain modest, and any severe potential would likely be driven
by mesoscale processes not well resolved at this time scale.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 130734
SWOD48
SPC AC 130732

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Generally low-amplitude westerly flow will persist across the
northern tier of the CONUS during the Day 4-8 period. A couple of
shortwave impulses will migrate through westerly flow from the Upper
Midwest to the Great Lakes vicinity on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu and again
during the weekend. These features could support some severe
thunderstorm potential for parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes
vicinity, particularly on Days 4-5/Wed-Thu as a sagging cold front
stalls over the Great Lakes. However, prior convection and large
spread among various medium range guidance regarding timing and
location of these somewhat subtle features precludes severe
probabilities at this time.

Strong upper ridging will develop across the south-central and
southeast U.S. beginning around Day 6/Fri. Weak deep-layer flow
beneath the upper ridge and lack of large-scale forcing will limit
severe potential from the southern Plains into the Southeast.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 140830
SWOD48
SPC AC 140829

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Upper ridging will build across the south-central and southeastern
U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. This will confine a series of
low-amplitude upper troughs to the northern tier of the U.S. along
the international border. Bouts of strong to severe thunderstorm
potential will be possible through the period as individual
shortwaves provide modestly enhanced mid/upper westerly flow from
the northern Plains to the Great Lakes vicinity. Given the generally low-amplitude nature the upper pattern across the northern U.S.
through at least Day 6 or 7/Sat or Sun, the main driver of severe
potential each day will be mesoscale features tied to prior days
convective evolution, not well resolved at longer time scales. As a
result, predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 150653
SWOD48
SPC AC 150652

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Low-amplitude/zonal westerly mid/upper flow is forecast across the
northern U.S. for much of the Day 4-8 period. At the same time, the
subtropical upper ridge/high over the Southeast will spread
westward, with larger-scale upper ridging developing over the
central U.S. late in the forecast period. Seasonally moist and
unstable conditions will exist for much of the CONUS east of the
Rockies. This will lead to daily thunderstorm activity, particularly
for parts of the northern/central Plains to the Midwest and
Mid-Atlantic regions. These areas will generally be on the north
side of the subtropic high and the southern fringes of any stronger
westerly flow near the international border. However, a lack of any
stronger forcing for ascent or notable surface features precludes
severe probabilities.

..Leitman.. 07/15/2025

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ACUS48 KWNS 160747
SWOD48
SPC AC 160745

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

...DISCUSSION...
A low-amplitude upper trough will move from the Great Lakes through
the Northeast during the Day 4-5/Sat-Sun period. Some enhanced
westerly flow aloft and a deepening surface low will accompany this
system. While forecast guidance varies with timing and location of
these features, some severe potential could develop from portions of
the Great Lakes to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic over the weekend ahead
of a cold front. Details are still uncertain regarding where a
better chance for severe storms may develop, precluding
probabilities.

By early next week, upper ridging is forecast for much of the CONUS
east of the Rockies while an upper shortwave trough persists over
the Northwest. Late in the period, a shortwave impulse may eject
from the Northwest upper shortwave and move across the northern
Plains, posing some increasing risk for severe potential, though
confidence in this scenario remains too low to include an outlook
area at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2025

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