ACUS03 KWNS 020729
SWODY3
SPC AC 020728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Discussion...
A mid-level trough will amplify as it moves through the central
Plains and into the Upper Midwest on Friday. As this trough advances
east, scattered to widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated
within a moderate to strongly unstable airmass. Shear across the
warm sector remains highly uncertain at this time as the exact
timing of the strengthening mid-level flow remains unclear. If
mid-level flow remains 30 knots or less, storm organization may be
somewhat nebulous with a threat for isolated damaging wind gusts.
However, if stronger mid-level flow can overspread the warm sector
during the afternoon/evening, a more concentrated severe weather
threat is possible. Due to these uncertainties, a marginal risk is
sufficient at this time, but higher severe weather probabilities may
be needed if more favorable warm-sector shear appears likely.

A mid-level trough will move from the Great Basin into the Northern
Rockies on Friday. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated
as this trough shifts northeast. At this time it does not appear
instability will be sufficient to substantiate a Marginal Risk, but
if greater instability materializes, a Marginal Risk may eventually
be needed.

..Bentley.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 030731
SWODY3
SPC AC 030731

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms capable of severe wind gusts are
possible across the Upper Midwest and the central High Plains.

...Upper Midwest...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move from the northern Plains
to the Upper Midwest during the day Saturday. Some stronger
mid-level flow is forecast to overspread a moderately unstable
airmass across Minnesota and northern Wisconsin. Wind shear will
remain modest, but should be sufficient (~25 knots) for some
multicells capable of isolated severe wind potential.

...Central High Plains...
Moderate instability is forecast to develop across the central High
Plains ahead of a cold front and dryline which are expected to
intersect somewhere around western Nebraska. Some stronger mid-level
flow may promote greater storm organization across Wyoming,
southeast Montana and western South Dakota. Farther south, mid-level
flow is not forecast to be as strong, but shear should still be
sufficient for a few organized storms, including the potential for
supercells.

..Bentley.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 031925
SWODY3
SPC AC 031924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms are possible across the Upper
Midwest and central High Plains on Saturday, with both wind and hail
possible.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A weakening shortwave trough will move from the upper MS Valley
across the Great Lakes, with stronger wave over the northern Rockies
during the late afternoon. This second system will proceed eastward
across the northern Plains overnight, providing large-scale ascent
with more substantial cooling aloft.

At the surface, a cold front associated with the Great Lakes wave
will stretch from upper MI into central WI, IA and northern KS by
late afternoon, with a ribbon of higher instability and 70s F
dewpoints ahead of it. Given good heating along the boundary and
substantial MLCAPE, clusters of strong to possibly severe storms are
expected in the uncapped air mass from central WI into northeast KS.
Damaging gusts are most probable, although sporadic hail cannot be
ruled out.

To the west, low pressure will develop over eastern WY, with a cold
front pushing south into northern WY. The steeper lapse rates, along
with effective deep-layer shear over 40 kt will likely support
sporadic supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts. These
cells will likely move southeastward, and possibly affect parts of
western SD and NE late.

For the central High Plains, easterly surface winds near the stalled
front will maintain low-level moisture, with instability building
across western KS and eastern CO. Strong heating with a deeply mixed
boundary layer will support initial storms over CO on the steep
low-level lapse rate interface, with further development along the
front into KS. Locally severe hail and wind will be possible here,
with mixed storm modes.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 040707
SWODY3
SPC AC 040706

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0206 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Synopsis...
Zonal upper flow, with multiple embedded mid-level impulses, will
become established over the northern CONUS as an upper trough
continues to meander along the CA coastline on Sunday. A weak
surface trough will become established over the Northeast while a
relatively nebulous surface pattern will characterize much of the
remaining CONUS. Widespread rich low-level moisture, amid an
uncapped airmass, is expected across much of the U.S. east of the
Rockies on Sunday afternoon, supporting thunderstorm development
across the Great Plains into parts of the Great Lakes/MS Valley and
toward the Carolina Piedmont. Weak upslope flow along the central
High Plains, beneath cooler temperatures aloft, will promote
adequate instability amid modest vertical wind shear to support an
isolated severe threat.

...Central High Plains...
By Sunday afternoon peak heating, low 60s F surface dewpoints will
advect northwestward across western NE into eastern CO and WY,
beneath 8.5 C/km low and mid-level lapse rates, promoting over 2000
J/kg MLCAPE over several locales. By early evening, modest 500 mb
westerlies will overspread a 25 kt south-southeasterly low-level jet
across the central High Plains, resulting in up to 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. There is an appreciable chance for a few of
the stronger storms to organize into multicells and supercells,
especially across northeastern CO into western NE, where the best buoyancy/shear overlap should occur. Isolated severe hail and wind
are the main threats, though a tornado could not be ruled out,
especially if a sustained supercell can develop.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 041836
SWODY3
SPC AC 041835

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0135 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few storms may produce isolated severe wind and hail along the
central High Plains on Sunday.

...Central High Plains...
A broad upper ridge will be in place on Sunday across most of the
central and southern US, with the mid-level westerlies extending
across the northern states. Scattered afternoon and evening
thunderstorms are expected throughout the High Plains from MT to TX,
but the area of greatest concern for a few strong/severe storms will
extend from the Black Hills region into northeast NM. Strong
heating and steep lapse rates will promote some risk of damaging
winds and hail in the strongest cells. Parts of western NE may
require higher severe probabilities in later outlooks.

..Hart.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 050731
SWODY3
SPC AC 050730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to
potentially severe storms are also possible over the northern
Appalachians.

...Synopsis...
Zonal mid-level flow will persevere over the northern CONUS as a
mid-level trough meanders along the CA coastline on Monday.
Mid-level impulses, embedded in the zonal flow aloft, will traverse
the Upper MS Valley and New England during the afternoon, acting as
a source of lift amid adequate moisture, instability, and vertical
wind shear, to support the potential for strong thunderstorms, a few
of which could become severe, especially over the central Plains.

...Central Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
A weak surface low will develop across the central High Plains and
augment northward moisture transport beneath a plume of steep
mid-level lapse rates. 60 F surface dewpoints beneath 8 C/km
mid-level lapse rates will yield 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating.
Furthermore modest northwesterly 500 mb flow associated with the
impulse will overspread the central Plains, resulting in 40 kts of
effective bulk shear. Given modestly elongated and curved
hodographs, supercells may develop, accompanied by a severe wind and
hail threat (with a few stones potentially exceeding 2 inches in
diameter). A tornado is also possible, particularly in central
Nebraska, where forecast hodographs show larger, curved low-level
hodographs. Storms may grow upscale into an MCS by evening,
accompanied by mainly a severe gust threat.

Strong storms may develop farther northeast into the Upper MS Valley
during the late afternoon/early evening hours. Though buoyancy will
be slightly weaker compared to the central Plains, elongated
hodographs suggest that a few supercells may produce isolated
instances of severe hail.

...Portions of the Northern Appalachians...
A mid-level impulse embedded in the 500 mb flow will impinge on the
northern Appalachians by afternoon peak heating, providing enough
lift for convective initiation. Near 70F surface dewpoints beneath
modest lapse rates will contribute to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE in tall/thin thermodynamic profiles. Forecast soundings depict hodographs with
some low-level curvature and size, suggesting that some storms may
become strong and organized. Multicells and supercells may pose a
damaging gust threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 051925
SWODY3
SPC AC 051924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are possible across the central Plains on Monday.
Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong to
potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New York
into Maine.

...Central to Northern Plains...
A northwest flow regime will become more prominent over the region
on Monday, with 35-40 kt winds at 500 mb. Area of early storms are
possible over parts of KS and NE from previous day activity, but air
mass recovery will occur behind from eastern CO into western NE/KS
with heating. New development may wait until near 00Z or after, but
cells capable of large hail will be possible over a small area.

...Upstate NY into ME...
A moist and unstable air mass will exist over the area, ahead of a
cold front extending from western NY into ME. Daytime heating of
this air mass will support scattered storms, beneath modest 30-40 kt
midlevel winds. This should support fast-moving mixed-mode
convection, with areas of damaging gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 060730
SWODY3
SPC AC 060729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND
PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms, capable of producing isolated damaging to
severe gusts, are possible across the Southern Plains into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Carolinas into the Northeast on
Tuesday.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will progress across the Midwest while an upper
ridge persists across the Southwest, and another upper trough
meanders along the California Coastline on Tuesday. Weak surface
troughs will be positioned over the central U.S. and along the East
Coast by afternoon, serving as a focus for scattered to widespread
thunderstorm development. Given the presence of at least moderate
instability, isolated severe storms will be possible over portions
of the central and eastern CONUS.

...Carolinas into southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected ahead of the surface
trough by late morning/early afternoon. Surface temperatures should
approach the upper 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, yielding up to 3000
J/kg of tall/thin MLCAPE (given poor mid-level lapse rates).
Relatively weak flow below 500 mb should result in mediocre vertical
wind shear. Pulse cellular storms and perhaps a few multicells are
likely, with the stronger cores supporting wet downbursts and
isolated damaging gust potential.

...Mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop ahead of the surface trough,
and along preexisting boundaries from preceding storms during the
afternoon hours. These storms will develop within a northwesterly
upper flow regime as the mid-level trough departs the Mid-MS Valley
region and are poised to move/propagate south-southeastward into the
evening hours. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures should warm
into the 90s F amid upper 60s/lower 70s F dewpoints. With mid-level
lapse rates generally in the 6.5-7.5 C/km range, MLCAPE should peak
around or just over 2500 J/kg. Given modest vertical wind shear
(i.e. 30 kts of effective bulk shear), multicells are expected. The
stronger storms may produce isolated severe gusts, though an
instance of hail cannot be ruled out. Should storms merge into one
or more MCSs, a slightly denser swath of strong to severe gusts may
be realized. Higher severe wind probabilities may be needed if
confidence increases in MCS development, and if the location/timing
of the MCS can be better ascertained.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 061931
SWODY3
SPC AC 061930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible
from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from
the Carolinas into the Northeast on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
A shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly from the mid MO
Valley eastward across much of the Midwest, with a weak surface low
moving from IA/northern MO into IL. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will
remain over the Four Corners states.

Substantial model uncertainty exists regarding convective evolution
and the precise locations of the greatest risk areas over the
central CONUS, and where early day storms may stabilize the air mass
over the Plains. However, moderate instability will exist from the central/southern Plains into the mid MS Valley, suggesting areas of
stronger storms. Morning storms are most likely from KS into MO and
OK, and some of these could produce strong gusts. Otherwise, the
general corridor from northwestern TX into southern IL appears to
coincide with stronger instability and localized wind potential.

To the east, a diurnal surface trough will develop over the Mid
Atlantic, where heating of a moist air mass will yield tall/moist
CAPE profiles in a weak shear environment. Scattered storms clusters
are likely to develop within the uncapped air mass from the central
Carolinas across eastern VA and up the I-95 corridor, with localized downbursts.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 070727
SWODY3
SPC AC 070726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains
on Wednesday, with large hail the main threat, and an instance of
very large hail cannot be ruled out. Isolated damaging gusts are
also possible across parts of the eastern U.S.

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist over the Southwest as a low-amplitude
mid-level trough approaches the Northeast on Wednesday. A pronounced
mid-level impulse will crest the upper ridge and traverse the
northern Rockies, supporting the rapid onset of surface lee
troughing across the northern Plains. Here, rich low-level moisture
will advect northward beneath colder temperatures aloft to support
strong buoyancy amid modest vertical wind shear. At least isolated
severe storms are likely. Isolated strong thunderstorms may also
develop along portions of the East Coast.

...Northern Plains...
A conditional severe threat is expected to develop ahead of the
surface trough on Wednesday afternoon. Dewpoints into the 60s F will
be overspread by 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rates by afternoon peak
heating, yielding 3500-4500 J/kg MLCAPE. Modest northwesterly 500 mb
flow rotating around the ridge will overspread the aforementioned
southerly flow, resulting in modestly elongated hodographs and 30
kts of effective bulk shear. A dryline feature will advance eastward
during the afternoon, serving as a primary lifting mechanism in
tandem with strong surface heating given weak upper support.
Isolated supercell development is possible, accompanied by a severe
wind/hail risk. Given the degree of buoyancy in place, a conditional
risk of 2+ inch hail exists should a supercell develop and become
sustained. Weak upper support and lack of confidence for greater
storm coverage is the primary limiting factor for higher severe
probabilities at this time.

...Portions of the Carolinas into the Mid Atlantic...
Scattered thunderstorms should develop atop a moist, weakly capped
boundary layer by early afternoon. Though vertical wind shear should
be weak and lapse rates will be poor, surface heating of the moist
boundary layer will support 2000-3000 J/kg of tall/thin CAPE. As
such, the stronger storms may produce wet downbursts and subsequent
isolated damaging gusts.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 071913
SWODY3
SPC AC 071913

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...AND OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains
on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the
eastern U.S.

...Northern Plains...
An upper high will remain over the Four Corners states on Wednesday,
with ridge extending northward into MT. This ridge will break down
late in the day as a large trough sweeps along the Canadian border,
and a separate smaller shortwave moves across the Great Basin.

During the day, a surface trough will deepen over the northern to
central High Plains, with southerly surface winds maintaining a
plume of 60s F dewpoints. Strong heating will occur beneath the
initial ridge, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Storms will form
near this trough from the central Dakotas into western NE, with
widely scattered storms traveling southeastward and producing
localized corridors of large hail and damaging gusts. A significant
hail storm may occur as upper-level winds increase, elongating
hodographs beneath the steep-lapse rates aloft.

...VA...MD...DE...Carolinas...
An upper trough will continue eastward across eastern Ontario and
into Quebec, with modest southwest winds of 30 kt at 500 mb as far
south as VA. In contrast to the previous day, lapse rates and
instability are not forecast to be as strong, due to lingering
clouds and perhaps areas of outflow from early day rain. However,
the air mass will again destabilize, with modest instability
developing. Storms will form over the higher terrain during the
later afternoon, with areas of strong outflow pushing east through
evening.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 080727
SWODY3
SPC AC 080726

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...EASTERN NEBRASKA...NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...FAR NORTHWEST
MISSOURI AND WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail, damaging
winds, and perhaps tornadoes will be possible across portions of the
Central Plains. Elsewhere, strong to locally severe thunderstorms
may occur across the High Plains, northern Plains, and portions of
the Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic.

... Synopsis ...

A low-amplitude shortwave trough will eject into the central Plains
during the late afternoon and evening ahead of a larger shortwave
trough that will impinge upon the northern Plains. At the surface, a
broad area of lower pressure associated with an initially diffuse
front will extend from northeast Colorado northeast to northwest
Minnesota.

... Central Plains ...

By mid afternoon surface temperatures will warm into the upper 80Fs
with dewpoints in the 70Fs beneath an area of steep mid-level lapse
rates. This combination will support most-unstable CAPE values in
excess of 3000 J/kg across portions of the region. At the same time,
the northern Plains trough will begin to interact with the central
Plains trough resulting in the central Plains trough taking on a
neutral to negative tilt as it is absorbed into the larger scale
flow. As this transition unfolds, strong forcing for ascent will develop/overspread much of the central Plains. The expectation is
that thunderstorms will rapidly develop across portions of the area
-- currently anticipated across eastern Nebraska where a Level
1/Slight Risk is found. The degree of instability and effective
layer shear will support all modes of severe initially, with a
tendency toward large hail and damaging winds with time.

... Northern Plains ...

Here more uncertainty exists in the forecast evolution. Despite the
presence of extreme instability and a diffuse surface boundary by
midday, most guidance fails to develop robust convection. That said,
given the degree of instability will maintain a Level 1/Marginal
Risk to note the conditional threat for severe thunderstorms should
convection initiate.

... Southeast US into the Mid-Atlantic ...

Once again thunderstorms will develop within a very warm, moist, and
weakly capped atmosphere. Precipitable water values should be near 2
inches across a large portion of the area leading to water laden
downbursts capable of sporadic wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 081930
SWODY3
SPC AC 081929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
and evening on Thursday.

...KS/NE/SD/IA...
A shortwave impulse over the northeast Great Basin at 12Z Thursday
should slowly dampen as it tracks into the central Plains. A
separate, positive-tilt shortwave trough will amplify across
southwest Canada along the international border with the Northwest.
This should yield an effective split flow regime over the
northern/central Plains on Thursday/Thursday night.

Preceding low-level warm-advection driven convection on Thursday
morning should modulate the degree of downstream destabilization
from the Mid-MO Valley into the Upper Midwest. Primary severe
potential should evolve from scattered thunderstorms forming at peak
diurnal heating across the central High Plains to Black Hills
vicinity. With an initially pronounced EML, large buoyancy should be
pervasive downstream in KS to SD. Mid-level wind fields with the
decaying impulse appear erratic across guidance, indicative of
attendant MCV influences from prior-day convection. But it should be
sufficient for multicell clustering and supercells capable of mixed
severe wind/hail threats. A strengthening low-level jet on Thursday
evening, from the southern High Plains nosing towards the Mid-MO
Valley, should sustain an MCS eastward near its exit region. The
spatiotemporal extent of a severe wind threat overnight is rather
uncertain.

...ND and northwest MN...
Strengthening of deep-layer shear attendant to the southwest
Canadian shortwave trough is largely anticipated to occur during the
latter half of the period. This may still be enough to support
organized convection by early evening along a cold front trailing
into the eastern ND vicinity. Ample buoyancy and steep mid-level
lapse rates will be supportive of a couple supercells early that may
congeal into a south/southeast-moving cluster Thursday night.
Scattered large hail and damaging winds are possible.

...East...
A mid-level low will continue east across QC, with a belt of
moderate westerlies present across NY and New England. Weak (500-mb
winds below 20 kts) will be prevalent south of this belt in the
Mid-Atlantic States and Southeast. Widespread diurnal storm coverage
is again anticipated from the DE Valley southward, as the boundary
layer warms amid a broad plume of 70s surface dew points. Wet
microbursts producing localized damaging winds are the expected
hazard in this regime.

Convective coverage should be more scattered with northern extent.
But this activity may organize into transient semi-discrete cells
and multicell clusters with a risk for at least isolated damaging
winds and small to marginally severe hail. This region will be
monitored in later outlooks for a potential level 2-SLGT risk.

..Grams.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 090730
SWODY3
SPC AC 090729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES NORTHEAST TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES AND FROM THE CAROLINAS TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds will be possible across portions of the central
Great Plains. Additional strong storms capable of producing sporadic
wind damage will be possible from the Carolinas to central
Pennsylvania.

... Central Plains ...

A low-amplitude short-wave trough across the central Great Plains
will begin to phase with / be absorbed by a larger scale trough
moving across the northern Great Plains. At the surface, a cold
front will slowly push southeast through much of Iowa during the
day.

At the start of the forecast period, convection from the previous
day should still be ongoing across portions of the area. The overall
pattern would suggest that one or more mesoscale convective vortices
(MCVs) may accompany this ongoing convection. Guidance consensus and
the overall pattern would support this convection persisting through
much of the day.

To the south of this convection, diurnal heating of a moist airmass
below steep mid-level lapse rates will result in a strongly unstable
atmosphere by mid afternoon. Additional thunderstorms should develop
within this strongly unstable atmosphere and be capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds.

At present, the combination of a weakening mid-level wind field and
uncertainty associated with the location of any ongoing/persistent
convection prevents the inclusion of higher probabilities with this
forecast. However, locally enhanced effective-layer shear associated
with any remnant MCVs should support some organization of a severe
threat such that an upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be warranted
as the details of such features become clear.

... Carolinas to central Pennsylvania ...

Diurnal heating of a moist and weakly capped boundary layer will
result in afternoon thunderstorms. Precipitable water values look to
be less on Friday than previous days, but still should be sufficient
for widely scattered to scattered wet downbursts. Wind damage will
be possible with the stronger downbursts.

... Eastern Colorado into the southern Great Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across northeast Colorado
during the afternoon. Large-scale flow should result in these storms
moving southeast through the evening and overnight hours as they
grow upscale into a large MCS. The overall pattern would suggest the
potential for at least a couple of severe wind reports associated
with this southeastward moving MCS.

..Marsh.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 091928
SWODY3
SPC AC 091927

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0227 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL KS TO
EASTERN IA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon
and evening on Friday, from central Kansas to eastern Iowa.

...Central States...
Primary change this outlook is to add a level 2-SLGT risk for the
most probable corridor of severe storms during the late afternoon
and evening Friday. Have also expanded the longitudinal extent of
the level 1-MRGL in the North-Central States and southward through
the southern High Plains.

A decaying MCS should be ongoing at 12Z Friday in vicinity of IA. An
attendant MCV with this activity may be separate from the mid-level impulse/low-amplitude shortwave trough that is progged to emerge
onto the central Great Plains Thursday night. A belt of modestly
enhanced mid-level west-southwesterlies ahead of these features will
support semi-organized clustering as renewed convective development
occurs towards peak heating. This is anticipated from along a
retreating large-scale outflow boundary southwestward towards the
dryline mixing into central KS. With ample buoyancy, scattered
severe storms seem possible with damaging wind as the main hazard.

Isolated severe storms are possible across a much broader region.
Along the synoptic cold front in northern MN to eastern SD,
mid-level flow enhancement should be confined west of the front,
owing to the positive-tilt orientation and compact nature of the
shortwave trough across the southern Canadian Prairies into the
northern Great Plains. Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support
an isolated severe threat across the central/southern High Plains,
with high-based convection in a limited buoyancy environment.

...East...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the
Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises will occur in its wake across
New England. Still, most guidance suggests isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in this region, where moderate effective bulk shear
could support an isolated/marginal wind/hail threat Friday
afternoon.

Farther south, scattered thunderstorms seem probable Friday
afternoon from the DE to Savannah Valleys. Prior days of extensive
convective overturning should temper PW values/storm coverage to an
extent. This suggests wet microburst potential may be subdued.

..Grams.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 100731
SWODY3
SPC AC 100730

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes during much of the day on Saturday. Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across the central
and southern High Plains southeastward toward the Texas Hill
Country.

... Upper Great Lakes ...

Multiple vorticity maxima will coalesce into a singular short-wave
trough across the region on Saturday. This amalgamation of vorticity
will take on an increasingly negative tilt as this feature moves
through the basal region of a broad Canadian trough. As this occurs,
the upper-level jet core downstream of the Canadian trough will
strengthen, placing much of the Upper Great lakes within the right
entrance region of the jet. Thus, multiple bands of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a surface
cold front in response to this increasing large-scale ascent.
Most-unstable CAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg and effective-layer
shear between 30-40 knots will support at least some potential for
damaging thunderstorm winds.

... Central High Plains southeast toward the Texas Hill Country ...

Thunderstorms will be ongoing across portions of the southern Great
Plains throughout the forecast period along a stalled frontal
boundary. Although an isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled
out along the frontal boundary, the greatest chance of organized
severe thunderstorms will develop during the late afternoon across
the higher terrain of central and southern Colorado. Here, moist
upslope flow at the surface coupled with modest north-northwesterly
flow aloft should aid in the development of an MCS during the
afternoon and evening. This MCS should move south-southeast during
the overnight hours across portions of the Oklahoma and Texas
Panhandles eventually approaching the Texas Hill Country by the end
of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 101929
SWODY3
SPC AC 101928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LOWER MI
VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across the Lower Michigan
vicinity on Saturday afternoon. A broad swath of isolated severe
thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to the southern
High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

...Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough should be centered on the MB/ON to the Dakotas/MN
border at 12Z Saturday. An embedded impulse should take on an
increasingly negative tilt as it ejects through the basal region of
the trough. This will help broaden the belt of moderate mid-level
(30-45 kts at 500 mb) southwesterlies across most of the Great
Lakes. Large spread, typical for this time of year, exists with the
handling of downstream MCVs and related flow/ascent enhancements, as
well as mesoscale placement of the effective outflow boundary from
prior day convection. The most likely corridor for ample buoyancy
development should be from southern/eastern Lower MI southward in
the Midwest. Stronger deep-layer shear will overlap the synoptic
cold front farther west in central/eastern WI and western Upper MI.
However, the degree of destabilization in this corridor is
uncertain. An ensemble of D3 CAM guidance and ML severe probs
suggests that the Lower MI vicinity will have the best chance at
clusters capable of scattered damaging winds during Saturday
afternoon.

...Mid-MS Valley to the Southern High Plains...
Multiple areas of general thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing
at 12Z Saturday from the Ozarks to the southern High Plains. With
only peripheral influence of the Upper Midwest shortwave trough,
afternoon to evening severe potential will be tied to the influence
of remnant MCVs embedded within generally weak deep-layer shear.
Greater concentration of thunderstorms that may grow upscale into a
slow-moving MCS on Saturday evening seems plausible across a portion
of the southern High Plains. Mesoscale predictability warrants
broad, low severe probabilities at this time.

..Grams.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 110730
SWODY3
SPC AC 110729

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC NORTH INTO WESTERN AND UPSTATE NEW YORK AS WELL AS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern
US from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York.
Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

... Synopsis ...

Broadly cyclonic mid-level flow will overspread the northeast United
States on Sunday. At the same time, a surface cold front will slowly
move east across the eastern US. Farther southwest, across the
southern Great Plains, the aforementioned cold front will make
little southward progress as southerly low-level flow increases in
response to surface cyclogenesis across the northern High Plains
late in the period.

... Mid-Atlantic northward into Upstate New York ...

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop from late morning
into the early afternoon associated with a modest increase in
large-scale ascent and surface convergence along the cold front.
Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid 60Fs to low 70Fs
will combine with diurnal heating to result in most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 1500 J/kg. Despite the better effective-layer
shear remaining north of the US, the degree of instability and the
very moist airmass will support sporadic wind damage with the
strongest thunderstorms.

... Southern Great Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley ...

Multiple MCVs from the preceding days convection will likely be
located across the region through the forecast period. A very moist
airmass -- precipitable water values in excess of 2 inches in places
-- and diurnal heating will result in a strongly unstable and weakly
capped airmass. Although thunderstorms will be possible across the
totality of the delineated area, it is likely that pockets of more
concentrated thunderstorm activity will develop in the vicinity of
the aforementioned MCVs. Some severe potential -- likely damaging
wind gusts -- will be possible with the strongest storms.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 111927
SWODY3
SPC AC 111926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND
FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible across the eastern
U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York.
Additional strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible across
the southern Great Plains northeast into the Mid-Mississippi Valley.

...Southern Plains to the mid MS Valley..
An expansive area of low-level moisture will remain in place, as a
weak trough extends from the Upper Great Lakes southwestward into
the southern Plains. Midlevel moistening will exist within this
trough, which will provide a focus for thunderstorms as heating
occurs and the cap remains minimal. Scattered storms will redevelop
within this broad southwest to northeast oriented zone from parts of
NM and western TX toward the mid MS and lower OH Valley, and
sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out during the peak heating
hours. However, organized severe storm chances appear minimal.

...VA northward into NY...
Robust moisture will remain in place from NY southward across VA and
the Carolinas, with low 70s F dewpoints common. All this will exist
well south of an upper trough over Quebec. Daytime heating will
result in 2000+ J/kg MUCAPE, with localized microbursts possible in
the weak flow regime. Slightly stronger westerlies will exist across
NY, and this could help storms become more mobile with outflows
spreading across a larger area from NY into PA.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 120640
SWODY3
SPC AC 120639

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains Monday evening.

...Discussion...

Generally low-amplitude west/northwest flow will spread across the
northern tier of the U.S. on Monday, confining any enhanced
deep-layer flow to the north-central states. Elsewhere, a weak
deep-layer flow regime will prevail within modest upper ridging
across the Southeast and West. A weak upper low may persist over the
southern Plains/Ozark Plateau vicinity.

A seasonally moist airmass with pockets of moderate instability will
support scattered convection from the Plains to the Eastern
Seaboard. However, lack of forcing and weak deep-layer flow will
limit severe potential across much of the country. The exception may
be across parts of the northern Plains.

A surface low is forecast to develop across the northern High Plains
in response to weak height falls during the evening/overnight. A
cold front will develop south across parts of the Dakotas while a
surface trough extends south across the northern High Plains. These
boundaries could become a focus for isolated thunderstorm
development during the late afternoon/evening. Steep lapse rates,
moderate instability and sufficient shear should support a few
organized cells capable of producing strong/severe wind gusts and
perhaps isolated hail.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 121900
SWODY3
SPC AC 121859

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains Monday evening.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A belt of moderate flow aloft will generally extend eastward along U.S./Canadian border on Monday, with weaker flow and higher heights
across the remainder of the CONUS. Models do depict a positive-tilt
trough dropping south across the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with
increasing large-scale ascent favoring increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances late.

A surface trough will deepen from eastern WA into southern MT and
into western SD late Monday, ahead of the elongated west-east
oriented cold front. Dewpoints in the 50s F will exist both near and
behind the front from central MT into the Dakotas, contributing to
MUCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Weak to moderate deep-layer effective shear
near the front may yield a few storms capable of severe gusts as
activity pushes south into the heated air mass south of the
boundary. Otherwise, elevated/marginal hail may occur as well. A
nocturnal low-level jet may support strong to locally severe storms
into parts of northern MN overnight.

Elsewhere, an expansive area of low-level moisture will remain from
the Plains to the East coast, beneath generally weak flow aloft.
This will support scattered storms, though any severe wind potential
should be quite localized.

..Jewell.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 130645
SWODY3
SPC AC 130644

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper
Midwest.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...

An upper trough will develop eastward across the northern Plains
toward the Upper Midwest on Tuesday. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to spread southeast across the Dakotas/NE, becoming
positioned from the Upper MS Valley to northern KS by Wednesday
morning. Ahead of the front, a seasonally moist airmass will be in
place. Steep low and midlevel lapse rates will support moderate to
strong destabilization, and thunderstorms should develop by
mid-to-late afternoon as large-scale ascent increases. Deep-layer
flow is not forecast to be overly strong, with effective shear
magnitudes in forecast soundings generally around 25-30 kt. Given
favorable thermodynamic profiles, this should be more than
sufficient for scattered organized cells capable of produce strong
gusts and hail from NE/SD into MN, necessitating a Marginal (level 1
of 5) risk.

...Mid-MS Valley...

A remnant low/MCV is forecast to move across MO/IL/IA on Tuesday. A
very moist airmass will be in place, with surface dewpoints into the
70s and PW values near 2 inches. This will aid in moderate
destabilization, though forecast lapse rates are modest.
Furthermore, deep-layer flow will be modest, though some local
enhancement near the low/MCV is possible. Quite a bit of spread in
noted in forecast guidance regarding the strength of this feature,
and several rounds of convection are possible in the days prior to
Tuesday. At this time, severe potential appears limited, but
isolated strong gusts could.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131931
SWODY3
SPC AC 131930

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper
Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
A broad upper trough and multiple convectively enhanced shortwave
perturbations moving out of southern Canada should move
east/southeastward over the Northern Rockies Tuesday. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow (30-40 kt) will also spread eastward,
overlapping with a sagging cold front from the western Great Lakes,
across the northern Plains and into the Rockies. Along and south of
the front, rich low-level moisture is expected with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s F contributing to 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Ascent from the approach trough and flow aloft will aid in deepening
a lee low across the central High Plains at the junction of the
front and a prominent lee trough. Convergence along these features,
should support scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

With deep-layer shear increasing to 30-35 kt, scattered
thunderstorms organized into multicell clusters or supercell
structures is possible along the cold front from the eastern Dakotas
to the western Great Lakes and within the broader warm sector across
southern SD to central NE. More isolated storms will also be
possible along and east of the lee trough trailing the surface low
to the south. Steep low mid-level lapse rates of 8+ C/km will be
more than sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of damaging
gusts and some hail. Consideration was given to higher severe
probabilities given large forecast buoyancy and more focused forcing
along the front/triple point. However, variability in the timing of
the front and overnight convective influences at this range lend low
confidence to any one solution.

At least an isolated severe risk should also extend westward within
the post-front upslope regime across far southern MT and into
eastern WY and western SD. While buoyancy will be reduced, low-level
moist advection and upslope flow behind the front will support
isolated to widely scattered storms within enhanced mid-level flow.
Hail and isolated damaging gusts are possible.

...Mid MS Valley...
Multiple model solutions show a rather well-defined MCV moving out
of the southern Plains and Ozarks into the mid MS Valley by Tuesday
morning. A very warm and humid air mass will remain in place ahead
of this feature supporting sufficient buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. The exact placement and intensity of this feature
remains very uncertain owing to different mesoscale
solutions/convective influence in the coming days. Still, some
enhancement of the low/mid-level flow field could support some
organized clusters capable of damaging gusts.

..Lyons.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 131940
SWODY3
SPC AC 131939

Day 3 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE UPPER
MIDWEST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD FILL ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday
afternoon and evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper
Midwest and Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
A broad upper trough and multiple convectively enhanced shortwave
perturbations moving out of southern Canada should move
east/southeastward over the Northern Rockies Tuesday. A belt of
enhanced mid-level flow (30-40 kt) will also spread eastward,
overlapping with a sagging cold front from the western Great Lakes,
across the northern Plains and into the Rockies. Along and south of
the front, rich low-level moisture is expected with dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s F contributing to 2500-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE.
Ascent from the approach trough and flow aloft will aid in deepening
a lee low across the central High Plains at the junction of the
front and a prominent lee trough. Convergence along these features,
should support scattered thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and
evening.

With deep-layer shear increasing to 30-35 kt, scattered
thunderstorms organized into multicell clusters or supercell
structures is possible along the cold front from the eastern Dakotas
to the western Great Lakes and within the broader warm sector across
southern SD to central NE. More isolated storms will also be
possible along and east of the lee trough trailing the surface low
to the south. Steep low mid-level lapse rates of 8+ C/km will be
more than sufficient for isolated severe storms capable of damaging
gusts and some hail. Consideration was given to higher severe
probabilities given large forecast buoyancy and more focused forcing
along the front/triple point. However, variability in the timing of
the front and overnight convective influences at this range lend low
confidence to any one solution.

At least an isolated severe risk should also extend westward within
the post-front upslope regime across far southern MT and into
eastern WY and western SD. While buoyancy will be reduced, low-level
moist advection and upslope flow behind the front will support
isolated to widely scattered storms within enhanced mid-level flow.
Hail and isolated damaging gusts are possible.

...Mid MS Valley...
Multiple model solutions show a rather well-defined MCV moving out
of the southern Plains and Ozarks into the mid MS Valley by Tuesday
morning. A very warm and humid air mass will remain in place ahead
of this feature supporting sufficient buoyancy for scattered
thunderstorms. The exact placement and intensity of this feature
remains very uncertain owing to different mesoscale
solutions/convective influence in the coming days. Still, some
enhancement of the low/mid-level flow field could support some
organized clusters capable of damaging gusts.

..Lyons.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 140715
SWODY3
SPC AC 140714

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0214 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of eastern Wyoming and Colorado
into Illinois and Wisconsin.

...Central Plains to Mid-MS Valley Vicinity...

A shortwave upper trough and likely MCV from Day 2/Tuesday
convection will move across MN/WI and the Great Lakes on Wednesday.
Another upper trough over the northern Rockies will shift east
across the northern/central Plains. These two features will result
in enhanced westerly flow atop a moist and moderate to strongly
unstable boundary layer from the central High Plains toward the
Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cold front/composite outflow (related to
Day 2/Tuesday storms) will percolate southeast across the Upper
Midwest and central Plains.

Uncertainty exists regarding location of key surface
boundaries/MCVs, as these features will be tied to convective
evolution in the Day 2/Tuesday period. Nevertheless, a very moist
and unstable airmass and favorable vertical shear should support
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the surface front.
Additional strong storms are possible in the post-frontal upslope
flow regime across parts of eastern WY/CO. As the location of key
features become more certain in the coming couple of days, the
outlook area may shift and/or upgrades may become necessary.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 141925
SWODY3
SPC AC 141924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the
Great Lakes.

...Central Plains...
At the start of the period, several areas of convection are likely
to be ongoing from eastern NE into northern KS and western IA.
Additional storms are likely ahead of the slow-moving cold
front/composite outflow sagging south from eastern WY and the
Rockies. Re-intensification and additional storm development appears
likely ahead of the boundary as a broad shortwave trough/MCV shift
eastward. The stronger vertical shear will likely lag to the north
of the front, casting some uncertainty on storm character. However,
sufficient buoyancy/shear should still support a damaging gust and
hail risk from the central High plains eastward.

...Great Lakes...
As the shortwave trough/MCV moves eastward ahead of the front,
redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms is possible
Wednesday across parts of WI into northern IL and MI. Enhanced
westerly flow could support some severe risk with these storms
through the afternoon and potentially across the lower Great lakes
overnight. Confidence in the evolution of this threat is low but the
general environment will be favorable for severe storms with
2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE and 25-30+ kt of effective shear.

...Gulf Coast...
A tropical wave over the northern Gulf will likely support numerous thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening. A very high PWAT air
mass (> 2 inches) and slight enhancement of mid-level easterly shear
could allow for brief storm organization along the immediate central
Gulf Coast. Sporadic damaging gusts or a brief tornado could occur,
though convective details remain limited.

...Upper OH Valley...
On the fringes of the strong sub-tropical ridging, prior convection
could result in the development of an MCV across the OH valley and
central Appalachians early Wed. Should this occur, scattered storms
may redevelop through the morning across the Upper OH valley.
Slightly enhanced flow aloft and high PWATs would suggests some risk
for damaging gusts is possible. However, confidence in the overall
scenario is too low for higher probabilities at this time.

..Lyons.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 150603
SWODY3
SPC AC 150602

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0102 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe potential is low/uncertain on Thursday.

...Discussion...

Low-amplitude westerly flow will persist from the northern Rockies
to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, the
subtropical upper high over the Southeast will slowly spread
westward. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest OH
to northwest OK and the TX Panhandle at the beginning of the period.
Much of the boundary will stall/move very little over the Plains and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, the northern portions of the
front will spread east across the Lower Great Lakes and portions of
the Northeast.

Some severe potential could develop in the vicinity of the surface
boundary across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity.
However, large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards
to the position of the cold front and any potential MCVs from prior
day's convection. This uncertainty precludes severe probabilities at
this time, but could become necessary in later outlooks as details
become better resolved.

..Leitman.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 151924
SWODY3
SPC AC 151924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible over parts of the Northeast
Thursday.

...Northeast and upper OH Valley...
Shortwave troughing over the eastern Great Lakes will gradually
merge with broader cyclonic flow over the Northeast and eastern
Canada Thursday. A surface low will steadily deepen as it shifts
eastward with the upper trough. A cold front trailing the low will
serve as a focus for thunderstorm development through the afternoon
from the OH valley to the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. Moderate
buoyancy and strengthening flow aloft will overlap and could support
scattered thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts ahead of the
front. A large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards
to the position of the cold front, strength of the surface low and
any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. While confidence in
the overall evolution is somewhat low, the broader environment still
appears favorable enough to support some severe risk.

...Mid MS Valley and southern Plains...
Scattered storms are expected along the cold front as it moves
southward across the Mid South and the Southern Plains. Stronger
vertical shear should largely lag behind the front especially with
southward extent. A few stronger storm clusters are possible along
the front where large buoyancy could support sporadic damaging
gusts. However, confidence in the frontal timing and convective
evolution is very low, precluding the addition of severe
probabilities for now.

..Lyons.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 160647
SWODY3
SPC AC 160645

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0145 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday.

...Synopsis...

Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of
the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify
over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse
and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the
Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may
provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early
evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's
convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday.

Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the
central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer
boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and
northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may
suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection
regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist
and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the
location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk
appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include
probabilities.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2025

$$

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ACUS03 KWNS 161928
SWODY3
SPC AC 161928

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe storms may occur over parts of the northern Plains to
Mid Missouri Valley on Friday. A lesser threat may develop into
parts of Virginia into North Carolina.

...Southern SD into NE...western IA...
A belt of stronger midlevel west to northwest winds aloft will
stretch from the northern Rockies across the Plains and into the
Great Lakes, with perhaps up to 50 kt from ND into MN, northern IA
and MI. High pressure will exist over the Lower Great Lakes, as low
pressure redevelops over the central High Plains. Southerly winds
will bring a moist and unstable air mass northward toward a
developing warm front, roughly from central SD into IA by 00Z.

In general, models suggest thunderstorms will develop along this
boundary, perhaps late in the day and through evening as a modest
low-level jet develops. Some models such as the ECMWF show
substantial convective coverage spreading southeast across NE and
IA, while others maintain convection closer to the boundary. Given
strong instability with steep midlevel lapse rates, low
probabilities for wind have been introduced.

...VA into NC...
Models indicate a high likelihood of daytime thunderstorms along a
weak boundary, as a weak disturbance possibly rounds the upper high
to the south. Westerlies aloft will remain weak, but perhaps
sufficient to allow for a few mobile clusters of storms producing
outflows as they develop within the very moist air mass. At this
time the severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities
this far out.

..Jewell.. 07/16/2025

$$

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