ACUS02 KWNS 020601
SWODY2
SPC AC 020559

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of large hail and severe wind gusts are
forecast across the Northeast on Thursday. Isolated severe wind
gusts are also possible in the Northern Plains and parts of the
Upper Midwest into the southwestern Great Lakes.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-level trough will translate slowly east across the
central CONUS on Thursday. To the east, a strong upper-level trough
will amplify across eastern Canada with a strong mid-level jet
streak moving across the Northeast. Farther west, several mid-level
troughs will traverse the southwesterly flow across the Rockies with
widespread thunderstorm activity expected.

...Northeast...
Weak to potentially moderate instability is forecast to develop
across the Northeast on Thursday ahead of a southeastward moving
cold front. Scattered storms are expected along and ahead of the
surface front as forcing for ascent increases across the Northeast.
These storms will likely be mostly multicellular due to modest shear
and instability. However, if some greater instability can develop
beneath the compact but strong 50 knot mid-level jet streak, a few
supercells may also be possible. Isolated large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the primary threat from the storms across the
Northeast.

...Southwestern Great Lakes...
A reservoir of low to mid 70s dewpoints is forecast to develop
across Iowa, eastern Minnesota, and Wisconsin Thursday afternoon.
Strong heating will likely result in strong instability across the
region. Forcing for storm development remains somewhat questionable
at this time. However, moderate shear will support the potential
for supercells with any storms that develop. Therefore, a
conditionally greater severe weather threat is possible, but
questions regarding storm coverage preclude higher probabilities at
this time.

...Northern Plains...
Strong instability is forecast to develop across the northern Plains
on Thursday as upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints advect into western
North Dakota. High-based thunderstorms will likely develop during
the afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region.
Effective shear will be relatively weak but steep low and mid-level
lapse rates and strong instability will support a threat for
isolated severe wind gusts Thursday afternoon/evening.

..Bentley.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 021728
SWODY2
SPC AC 021727

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST US...AND OVER PARTS OF
NORTH DAKOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of severe wind gusts and hail are forecast
across the Northeast US and North Dakota on Thursday.

...Northeast...
A shortwave trough currently over western Ontario will track
southeastward across the Great Lakes on Thursday. Increasing large
scale forcing will overspread parts of PA/NY and New England through
the day, promoting afternoon thunderstorm development along an
approaching cold front. A warm/humid air mass will be present ahead
of the front, with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient CAPE
to pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and perhaps some hail. Given
trends in 12z model guidance regarding thunderstorm coverage, have
added a SLGT risk for portions of the region.

...ND...
A prominent mid-level ridge will be established over the central US
tomorrow. Model guidance suggests a subtle shortwave trough will
track into eastern MT during the afternoon and top the ridge
overnight. Southerly low-level winds will help to draw moisture
northward into ND by late afternoon, resulting in a reservoir of
strong instability. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over
western ND posing a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Several
12z HREF members suggest the risk of upscale growth and a bowing MCS
tracking eastward across ND overnight.

...Upper MS Valley...
A weak/diffuse low-level baroclinic zone will extend from southeast
MN into IL on Thursday. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds
will enhance warm advection by early evening, leading to scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could be strong, posing a risk
of gusty winds and hail.

..Hart.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 030601
SWODY2
SPC AC 030600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across
portions of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Friday.

...Synopsis...
A strong upper-trough will move off the northeast CONUS into the
western Atlantic on Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge will move across the
Great Lakes with a trough across the northern Plains into the Upper
Midwest. An additional mid-level trough will move across the
Northwest.

...Central Plains into the Upper Midwest...
As a mid-level trough moves across the northern Plains, a surface
low will deepen across eastern North Dakota on Friday. Ahead of this
surface low and associated cold front, strong instability is
forecast with dewpoints in the low 70s and temperatures in the low
80s. Widespread thunderstorm activity is anticipated along this
frontal zone as ascent overspreads the front with an uncapped warm
sector. Some embedded shortwave jet streaks will move through the
southwesterly flow across the warm sector. Within these zones of
stronger mid-level flow, shear may be more favorable and support a
greater severe weather threat. However, the locations of these
mesoscale regions with a more favorable environment remain uncertain
at this time.

...ID/MT...
A strong shortwave trough will track into the western states on
Friday, promoting scattered afternoon thunderstorm development over
parts of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies. There is
some concern for a few storms capable of damaging winds and hail
over the region Friday evening, but model solutions remain to
diverse to add a risk area at this time.

..Bentley.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 031733
SWODY2
SPC AC 031732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected mainly over
the central to northern Plains, and perhaps late toward the upper
Mississippi Valley.

...Synopsis...
A trio of shortwave troughs will affect parts of the northern CONUS
on Friday, with widely-scattered strong to severe storms most likely
with the system moving across the Plains. This wave will lift
northeastward out of the high Plains during the day, with temporary
shortwave ridging over the upper MS Valley. Temperatures aloft will
remain relatively warm, though some cooling will occur over the
western Dakotas and NE.

At the surface, a cold front will slowly develop into the western
Dakotas during the day, with a trough extending southward along the
CO/KS border. This front will push into NE and western MN overnight, maintaining a focus for continues storms. Southerly winds will
maintain substantial low-level moisture ahead of the front with
dewpoints from the mid 60s to lower 70s F contributing to moderate
overall instability.

...Dakotas into MN...
Storms are likely to develop near the surface trough from central NE
into SD, and especially near the cold front over ND where lift will
be strongest. Instability will also be stronger from ND into
northern MN, and mixed storms modes may produce both damaging gusts
and isolated hail. This activity will likely persist through the
nigh across much of western and northern MN, with perhaps more
isolated storms persisting farther south into southern MN/western
IA.

...NE into western KS...
Strong heating and low-level convergence within the surface trough
will combine with a moist air mass and support least isolated
afternoon storms from far eastern CO into western KS and vicinity.
Shear will be weak, with veering winds with height supporting southeastward-propagating storms capable of locally strong gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 040558
SWODY2
SPC AC 040557

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main
concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms over the Upper Midwest.

...Synopsis...
Generally zonal mid-level flow will overspread the northern CONUS as
an upper trough impinges on the West Coast tomorrow (Saturday). A
pair of mid-level impulses will traverse the zonal flow, with one
impulse passing over the Great Lakes as the other impulse ejects
into the Northern High Plains. Over both locations, adequate
moisture and instability will be in place to support strong
thunderstorms. The best chance for severe thunderstorms will be over
the northern High Plains, where stronger vertical wind shear will
encourage storm organization.

...Northern into the central High Plains...
A belt of strong westerly 500 mb flow will overspread MT into the
northern High Plains Saturday afternoon with the passage of the
aforementioned mid-level impulse. A surface low will develop
somewhere across northern WY into southern MT, promoting moist
southeasterly low-level flow beneath the stronger mid-level
westerlies, resulting in over 50 kts of effective bulk shear.
Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by 8+ C/km low to mid-level
lapse rates, will boost MLCAPE to over 2000 J/kg in spots. The
moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear will promote
supercells and bowing segments capable of producing some severe wind
and hail. A tornado is also possible with the longer-lived, dominant supercells.

Farther south into the central High Plains, deep-layer ascent and
shear should be considerably weaker, resulting in a lower coverage
of relatively less organized multicellular clusters. Storms here
should be high-based, overspreading a dry boundary layer deepening
into the 700-500 mb range by afternoon peak heating. Isolated severe
gusts are possible with the stronger multicellular clusters, and an
instance or two of severe hail cannot be ruled out.

...Great Lakes into the central Plains...
A weak surface cold front, associated with a surface low over the
Great Lakes, will progress southeastward across the western Great
Lakes into the central Plains as the eastern mid-level impulse
glances by to the north. Flow closer to the surface and aloft, and
thus vertical wind shear, will not be overly strong ahead of the
front. However, rich low-level moisture amid afternoon surface
heating will promote 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and minimal convective
inhibition. Scattered multicells should develop along/ahead of the
front through the afternoon, the stronger storms of which may
produce wet downbursts and accompanying isolated damaging gusts.

..Squitieri.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 041647
SWODY2
SPC AC 041645

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY FROM
CENTRAL MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS AND
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains tomorrow (Saturday), with hail and wind being the main
concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms over the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains...
The prominent shortwave trough currently tracking across southeast
OR will top the ridge over the northern High Plains on Saturday. As
this happens, large scale forcing will overspread much of eastern
MT/WY into the Dakotas. Deep southeasterly low-level winds into
this region will result in a corridor of moderate instability from
northeast WY into central MT, where steep low and mid-level lapse
rates will contribute to MLCAPE values over 2000 J/kg.
Thunderstorms will begin increasing by early afternoon, with storms
spreading into the Dakotas by evening. Supercells and bowing
structures are expected, with a risk of large hail and damaging wind
gusts.

...Upper Midwest...
Current water vapor loop shows a weak shortwave trough over eastern
WY. This feature will strengthen and move into the upper Midwest
tomorrow. A surface cold front will extend from northeast IA into
central WI by afternoon, providing the focus for scattered
thunderstorm development. Mid-level lapse rates will be weak, but
ample low-level moisture should provide sufficient CAPE for a few
strong storms capable of gusty/damaging winds. A few of the 12z CAM
solutions suggest a few organized storm clusters and some potential
for a zone of greater severe concern from northeast IA into
southwest WI. Will maintain MRGL risk for now, but monitor for an
upgrade in later outlooks.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected on Saturday across
much of the southern High Plains from eastern CO into southwest KS,
the TX Panhandle, and eastern NM. Forecast soundings show steep
low-level lapse rates and sufficient northwest flow aloft for some
convective organization. Multiple clusters of storms capable of
gusty/damaging winds and hail are expected. Parts of this region
may need an upgrade to SLGT as mesoscale details become more clear.

..Hart.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 050557
SWODY2
SPC AC 050555

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High
Plains tomorrow (Sunday). A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail
and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible.

...Synopsis...
Mainly zonal upper flow will become established over the northern
CONUS, with multiple embedded impulses poised to traverse the zonal
flow through the day tomorrow (Sunday). The best chance for strong
storms will be associated with mid-level impulses impinging on the
High Plains and New England Sunday afternoon. Ample moisture and
associated instability will precede the impulses, that combined with
adequate vertical wind shear, will support storm organization, some
of which could be severe.

...Maine...
A belt of 50 kt westerly 500 mb flow will overspread southeast
Quebec into Maine Sunday afternoon with the overhead passage of a
mid-level impulse. Surface lee troughing over Maine will serve as an
impetus for thunderstorm initiation during the afternoon, when
surface temperatures/dewpoints in the low 80s/upper 60s F will boost
MLCAPE to over 1000 J/kg. Modestly curved, sizeable low-level
hodographs suggest that multicells and supercells will be the main
storm mode, possibly accompanied by damaging gusts.

...Central and Southern High Plains...
Low-level upslope flow will encourage the northwestward advection of
60s F surface dewpoints into the higher terrain of the High Plains
Sunday afternoon, beneath 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates. Moderate
to strong instability will manifest, with over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE
possible. Storms will initiate over the higher terrain, amid
straight hodographs, contributing to splitting supercell potential.
By evening, the southeasterly surface flow will be overspread by a strengthening southerly low-level jet, with flow quickly veering to
westerly in the 700-500 mb layer. This directional shear will
support curved low-level hodographs with continued supercell
potential, before storms merge into an MCS by evening. While in the
supercell phase, a few instances of severe hail (perhaps an instance
or two of 2+ inch diameter hail) are possible, along with severe
gusts and perhaps a tornado. By the time storms merge into an MCS,
severe gusts will become the primary threat, and a few gusts
exceeding 75 mph will be possible. Higher severe probabilities may
be needed if confidence increases in a longer-lived, severe-wind
producing MCS developing.

Farther south into the southern High Plains, storm coverage should
be relatively less, with multicells becoming outflow dominant more
quickly given weaker vertical wind shear compared to the central
High Plains. Nonetheless, an instance or two of hail is possible,
along with severe gusts, especially with multicellular cold-pool
mergers.

...Coastal Carolinas...
A tropical storm is forecast to make landfall along the Carolina
coastline at the start of the Day 2 period/12Z Sunday (please see
the National Hurricane Center's advisories for more information on
the progression of Tropical Depression 3). A deeply moist
troposphere will accompany the land-falling TC, with MLCAPE
approaching the 750-1000 J/kg range. Nonetheless, the vertical wind
fields associated with this land-falling tropical storm are expected
to quickly weaken, along with vertical wind shear. As such, while
the risk for a brief tornado is technically non-zero, confidence in
any robust tornado coverage is too low for the introduction of 2
percent or greater tornado probabilities at this time.

..Squitieri.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 051726
SWODY2
SPC AC 051725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Storms may produce severe wind and hail along the central High
Plains on Sunday. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and 75+
mph wind gusts are possible.

...Central Plains...
A shortwave trough will dive southeastward across the northern
Rockies late in the day, with 35-40 kt midlevel wind speeds
extending as far south as northern CO and western NE. Temperatures
aloft will also be cool, resulting in steep lapse rates.

While high pressure will exist over the northern Plains, a gradually
deepening surface trough over the High Plains will lead to westward
moisture advection with mid 50s F dewpoints into eastern WY and CO,
and 60s F just east. Combined with daytime heating and cool profiles
aloft, substantial instability will support severe storms, with
localized significant hail or wind reports.

Storms will form after about 21Z from southeast WY toward the Front
Range, producing large hail. With time, activity may develop into a
severe MCS, proceeding east/southeast into western KS. Aiding
forward propagation will be strengthening southeast winds at 850 mb
after 00Z, with continued unstable storm-relative inflow.

...Maine...
Moderate 40-50 kt midlevel winds will persist over region, perhaps
with a very low amplitude wave skirting across southern Quebec and
Maine during the late afternoon. A slow-moving cold front appears
properly timed to support diurnal storm development, as MUCAPE peaks
at around 1500 J/kg. Given relatively poor lapse rates aloft, but
moderate mean winds, fast-moving cells will be possible, with a few
damaging gusts.

...MO into central IL and IN...
A minor disturbance aloft will affect the region, atop an elongated
surface trough extending from the lower Great Lakes southwestward
into MO. Thunderstorms will develop during the day as the air mass
will remain moist and unstable, with over 2000 J/kg MUCAPE present.
However, overall profiles appear on the cloudy/high RH side, and
boundary layer heating/lapse rates will not be particularly steep.
As such, while gusty outflows will be present with afternoon through
evening, the severe risk seems low. Small hail cannot be ruled out
in the strongest of cells near peak heating.

...Parts of the eastern Carolinas...
Convection associated with TS Chantal will move from eastern SC
across eastern NC during the day, with enhanced low-level wind
fields and 0-1 SRH around 100-150 m2/s2. Given the sufficiently
unstable air mass, this could support an isolated/brief tornado risk
during the day with convection feeding in east of the track.

..Jewell.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 060549
SWODY2
SPC AC 060547

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe storms are likely across the central Plains tomorrow
(Monday). Severe wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong
to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New
York into Maine.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level trough will eject into the Plains states as upper
troughing persists across the Northeast and West Coast tomorrow
(Monday). Surface lee troughs will develop over the central Plains
and New England, which will encourage at least scattered
thunderstorm development over both regions. Across the Plains,
strong instability and appreciable vertical wind shear will be in
place to support severe thunderstorms. Isolated strong to severe
thunderstorms will also be possible over portions of the northern
Appalachians.

...Northern Appalachians...
By afternoon peak heating, surface temperatures should rise into the
70s F amid 70 F dewpoints, boosting MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg given the
deep, rich low-level moisture in place. Modest westerly flow aloft
will overspread the region as a mid-level trough glances the area,
supporting 25-35 kts of effective bulk shear/straight hodographs.
Some of the strongest storms may become organized multicells capable
of producing isolated damaging gusts.

...Central High Plains into the Northern Plains...
Surface lee troughing will encourage continued northward low-level
moisture advection beneath 8.5+ C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates through
the day, boosting MLCAPE into the 2000-3000 J/kg range by afternoon
peak heating. As evening approaches, strengthening of the southerly
low-level jet should ensue beneath westerly 500 mb flow, resulting
in enlarged, curved hodographs and 35+ kts of effective bulk shear.
The more robust storms that develop should be initially
supercellular, accompanied by a severe wind/hail threat. An instance
or two of 2+ inch diameter hail and/or a tornado may occur. Several
storms are expected to develop along/ahead of the surface trough
from the central High Plains into the northern Plains by evening,
with cold pool mergers most likely across western NE. Here, an MCS
may develop and produce a more focused swath of severe gusts, hence
the Category 3/Enhanced risk. Multicell clusters may also develop as
far northeast as MN and southwest as northeast NM, all of which may
produce at least isolated severe gusts.

..Squitieri.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 061730
SWODY2
SPC AC 061729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SMALL PARTS OF SURROUNDING STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central Plains on
Monday. Damaging wind and hail are the main threats. Isolated strong
to potentially severe storms are also possible from parts of New
York into Maine.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A shortwave trough will move east/southeast across the northern
Plains and into the mid MO to upper MS Valley on Monday, with
moderate northwest winds aloft. Midlevel temperatures will also be
relatively cool, with -10 C at 500 mb as far south as KS.

At the surface, a trough will develop from central SD into western
NE and northeast CO, while southerly winds aid air mass recovery
across the region. Storms will likely develop both along a cold
front over the Dakotas, and extending southward as activity develops
off the Front Range.

Forecast soundings indicate over 2000 J/kg is likely over much of
the warm sector, which will support strong to severe storms. A few
supercells will be possible initially with large hail and even a
brief tornado, before storms congeal into an MCS during the evening
with damaging winds likely.

...Parts of the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast...
As a low-amplitude wave moves across Ontario and Quebec, height
tendencies will remain rather neutral over the Northeast during the
day. A surface trough and front will stretch roughly along the
Canadian border, with upper 60s F dewpoints common.

Daytime heating will lead to around 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE, and
storms are likely to form within this moist and uncapped air mass
from western NY into northern New England. Modest 30 kt midlevel
westerlies and favorable time of day with a deepening mixed boundary
layer may support locally strong gusts capable of damage.

..Jewell.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 070555
SWODY2
SPC AC 070553

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms capable of isolated damaging gusts are possible
from the Southern Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, and from
the Carolinas into the Northeast tomorrow (Tuesday).

...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will persist across the Southwest as mid-level
troughs impinge on the OH Valleys and the West Coast tomorrow
(Tuesday). Weak surface troughs will be positioned over the
Northeast and MS Valley into the southern Plains by afternoon,
promoting lift of a moist low-level airmass. Enough buoyancy will be
in place, amid modest vertical wind shear, to promote the
development of organized thunderstorms, some of which could be
strong to potentially severe.

...Carolinas into southern New England...
Scattered thunderstorms will develop by early afternoon, as surface temperatures warm well into the 80s F amid 70+ F dewpoints, eroding
MLCINH and boosting MLCAPE to 2000-3000 J/kg. Poor mid-level lapse
rates will result in the aforementioned buoyancy being constrained
to tall/thin profiles, amid 15-25 kts of effective bulk shear. The
stronger storms should be multicellular, capable of mainly damaging
gusts.

...Mid-MS Valley into the southern Plains...
Scattered to potentially widespread thunderstorms will develop
during the afternoon given the abundance of low-level moisture and
minimal convective inhibition. Storm development is particularly
likely along leftover boundaries from preceding storms on Day 1.
Surface temperatures approaching 90 F, with dewpoints exceeding 70
F, will contribute to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE given 7 C/km mid-level
lapse rates. As the mid-level trough moves away toward the OH
Valley, mid-level flow will shift to northwesterly, above southerly
low-level winds, contributing to 25 kts of effective bulk shear.
Multiple merging multicells may form one or more southward-moving
MCSs capable of producing a few strong to severe gusts.

...Central to Southern High Plains...
Weak upslope flow of 60 F surface dewpoints, from the southeast,
beneath northwesterly flow and 8-9 C/km 700-500 mb lapse rates, will
yield 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE amid straight hodographs and 35 kts of
effective bulk shear. By afternoon peak heating, isolated supercell
will move off of the higher terrain, accompanied by an isolated
severe wind/hail threat.

..Squitieri.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 071726
SWODY2
SPC AC 071725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID ATLANTIC...AND OVER A PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe storms capable of damaging gusts are most
probable over parts of the Mid Atlantic, and over much of Oklahoma.

...Parts of the central/southern Plains to the mid MS Valley...
A weak northwest flow pattern will exist over the central and
southern Plains on Tuesday, around an upper high over the Four
Corners region. Of note are relatively cool midlevel temperatures
for this time of year, with -8 to -10 C at 500 mb from OK into KS.

At the surface, a boundary will stretch from parts of northern MO
into southern KS, possibly enhanced by areas of early convection.
Strong heating and a very moist air mass will lead to strong
destabilization, especially across KS, OK, MO and northern TX. While
model solutions do vary with timing of redevelopment along this
boundary, the overarching theme is for one or more clusters of
storms to form late in the day, with a southward propagation. Given
substantial instability and precipitable water content, areas of
severe wind gusts appear likely with any MCS. Depending on how
organized such an MCS becomes, it could potentially reach northern
TX by 12Z Wednesday with wind potential.

...Mid Atlantic...
An upper trough will move across the Great Lakes region Tuesday,
with peripheral effects across parts of the area. A surface trough
will deepen during the day along the I-95 corridor, where a very
moist and unstable air mass will exist due to 70s F dewpoints and
strong heating.

Forecast soundings indicate tall, moist CAPE profiles with MUCAPE of
2000-3000 J/kg and precipitable water values over 2.00 inches. This
should foster robust storms with heavy water loading and severe
downdraft potential.

Storms should form by early afternoon over eastern WV/western and
northern VA, with an upward trend in coverage and intensity across
southeast PA, northern and central VA, MD, DE and NJ. Strong to
severe wind gusts appear likely with these storms, especially as
outflows merge after about 21Z.

..Jewell.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 080558
SWODY2
SPC AC 080556

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
At least isolated severe storms are possible in the northern Plains
on Wednesday, with locally large hail and areas of severe gusts.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible across parts of the
eastern U.S.

... Synopsis ...

A midlevel ridge centered over the four corners will begin to break
down on Wednesday as a low-amplitude shortwave trough quickly moves
from off the northern California coast into the Great Basin.
Additionally, a larger amplitude trough will move across southern
Canada. Elsewhere, broad mid-level troughing will persist across the
eastern US.

Surface lee toughing will exist across the northern Plains in
response to westerly downslope flow. This westerly flow will help
maintain steep mid-level lapse rates into the northern Plains atop a
moist boundary layer supported by southerly surface winds on the
east side of the northern Plains lee trough.

... Northern Plains ...

Strong diurnal heating should allow temperatures to warm into the mid-to-perhaps-upper 90Fs across much of the Dakotas by mid
afternoon. This heating, coupled with surface dewpoint temperatures
in the 60Fs, will support surface-based CAPE in excess of 2500-3000
J/kg with little to no convective inhibition. Additionally, modest
northwest mid-to-upper-level flow on the northeast periphery of the
four corners ridge will support somewhat elongated hodographs and effective-layer shear around 30 knots.

Despite the region being displaced from the stronger large-scale
ascent associated with the aforementioned shortwave troughs,
isolated thunderstorms are still expected to develop by late
afternoon. The overall thermodynamic and kinematic environment
should support multicell clusters to transient supercell structures
capable of producing large hail -- perhaps in excess of 2 inches in
diameter. By early evening any thunderstorm clusters persisting will
pose an increasing damaging wind threat.

A categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk was considered with
this forecast. However, given the nebulous forcing mechanisms for
initiating thunderstorms, uncertainty remains as to the coverage of
severe thunderstorms. As such a Level 1/Marginal Risk was
maintained, even though a potential for significant hail exists.

... Southeast US to Southern New England ...

Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop during the late
morning into the afternoon within a moist, unstable, and weakly
capped airmass. Precipitable water values around 2" will support
water loading of updrafts and a resulting potential for strong
thunderstorm winds capable of scattered wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 081718
SWODY2
SPC AC 081717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible on Wednesday afternoon to
early evening from the Carolina Piedmont towards the Delaware
Valley. Isolated significant severe hail and sporadic severe gusts
are also possible across parts of the Dakotas from late afternoon to mid-evening.

...Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States...
A lower-amplitude mid-level trough should drift east across the
central to Lower Great Lakes and OH Valley, north of a mid-level
anticyclone over the northeast Gulf. A belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will be centered on the Mid-Atlantic, diminishing
with southward extent in the Southeast. Scattered to widespread
thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon over the
southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains, spreading across the
adjacent Piedmont. Rather rich boundary-layer moisture downstream
will compensate for weak mid-level lapse rates to support an
extensive plume of MLCAPE from 2000-3000 J/kg. A few semi-organized
clusters may develop from VA towards DE Bay owing to the more
favorable shear. However, water-loaded downbursts producing damaging
winds appear to be the overarching scenario, which is signaled by
the 12Z HREF max wind speed field.

...Northern Great Plains...
Just downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating north
from an anticyclone over the Southwest, guidance suggests that
isolated to scattered late-afternoon thunderstorms should form along
a weak surface trough. Low-level moisture ahead of this trough will
gradually build beneath a stout EML. A corridor of large to extreme
buoyancy is probable from a portion of western/central ND into NE by
peak heating. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to
the ridge proximity, stronger upper-level westerlies will support
adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells. Significant severe
hail will be possible in any sustained supercells. Outflow-dominated
downdrafts should foster clustering east-southeastward with a risk
for sporadic severe gusts before waning Wednesday night.

...Interior Northwest...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving east across northern CA into
the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of moderate mid-level southwesterlies will exist into MT. Within this favorable flow
regime, scattered afternoon to early evening thunderstorms will aid
in strong to isolated severe gusts from eastern OR to
southern/central/eastern MT.

...Lower MI...
Isolated, marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds are
possible as scattered thunderstorms develop during the afternoon,
supported by a modest combination of deep-layer shear/buoyancy.

..Grams.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 090600
SWODY2
SPC AC 090558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
central and northern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon
and evening on Thursday. Additional severe thunderstorms will be
possible during the afternoon across portions of the Southeast.

... Synopsis ...

A complex evolution of the mid-to-upper level pattern is expected to
unfold on Thursday across the central United States. A de-amplifying
short-wave trough will move from northern Utah into the central
Great Plains. At the same time, a larger-scale, positive-tilt trough
will amplify during the period across southern Canada as it pushes
east. This will result in an effective split-flow pattern across the north-central US.

... Central and Northern Great Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected at the start of the period across eastern
portions of the central and northern Great Plains, driven primarily
by warm, moist low-level advection. In the wake of this convection,
the airmass is expected to quickly recover yielding moderate to
extreme instability.

By late afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
terrain of northeast Colorado and eastern Wyoming. As the
aforementioned low-amplitude short-wave trough begins to eject into
the central Great Plains, these thunderstorms should quickly move
off the terrain and into the Plains. Damaging winds will be possible
with these storms as the quickly grow upscale in response to the
increasing large-scale ascent. The overall degree of instability
will also support the potential for sporadic large hail.

To the north across North Dakota, convective evolution is more
uncertain. The atmosphere will be extremely unstable in the presence
of a surface boundary and approaching large-scale ascent. Despite
the absence of a more robust signal in the convective allowing
guidance for afternoon convection, coarser-scale guidance suggests
at least scattered thunderstorm development will occur during the
evening and overnight hours. These thunderstorms will be capable of
damaging thunderstorm winds with at least some potential for large
hail.

... Portions of the Southeast ...

Thunderstorms will once again develop within a warm, moist, and
weakly capped environment. High precipitable water value (locally in
excess of 2 inches) will support water loaded downdrafts giving way
to wet downbursts capable of wind damage. A Level 2/Slight Risk was
added to highlight the area of highest coverage of potential wet
downbursts.

... Portions of the Northeast ...

Diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer will result in scattered
thunderstorm development across the region. Most-unstable CAPE
values greater than 1000 J/kg and modest effective-layer shear
should support the potential for scattered wind damage. Should
coverage of thunderstorms be greater than currently anticipated an
upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk may be warranted in subsequent
forecasts.

..Marsh.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 091726
SWODY2
SPC AC 091724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
GREAT PLAINS AND THE SOUTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
A corridor of scattered damaging winds is possible Thursday
afternoon across a portion of the Southeast. Scattered severe
thunderstorms are possible over parts of the central Great Plains,
mainly from late afternoon through Thursday night.

...Central States...
Much uncertainty plagues this forecast cycle with low predictability
across guidance related to the development/evolution of multiple
MCVs from D1. These MCVs will meander downstream of a low-amplitude
shortwave trough progressing east from the northeast Great Basin
into the central Great Plains on D2. Meanwhile, a positive-tilt
shortwave trough should amplify from the Canadian Rockies into the
southern Prairie Provinces/northern High Plains by early Friday.

Have expanded level 1-MRGL risk eastward across the Upper MS Valley
for potential diurnal intensification of convection surrounding
remnant MCVs. While confidence is quite low in spatiotemporal
details and the degree of convective coverage, there is adequate
signal across guidance to warrant low-probability severe hail/wind
hazards.

Primary severe potential will likely commence towards peak heating
across the central High Plains ahead of the aforementioned
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Hot/deep-mixed thermodynamic
profiles are expected from southwest/south-central NE southward, as
the dryline reaches central KS. High-based convection in the
post-dryline airmass will offer a threat of sporadic severe gusts.
As convection impinges on a more buoyant airmass downstream, in
tandem with a strengthening low-level jet from the southern High
Plains towards eastern NE, an MCS should develop over NE in the
evening. A downstream warm-advection arc will aid in sustaining this
MCS eastward across a portion of the Mid-MO Valley. A swath of
severe wind gusts with embedded severe hail will be possible
Thursday night.

Farther north in the northern Great Plains, latest signals are for
broad, low-probability hail/wind threats. The timing of ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level flow appears delayed until late in the
period ahead of the Canadian Rockies/northern High Plains trough.
Convective coverage should remain isolated during the late afternoon
to early evening along a weak surface front/trough. Modest
deep-layer shear during this timeframe will modulate the overall
threat as well. Greater convective potential should exist overnight
but may largely remain behind the undercutting surface front as it
sharpens southeastward.

...East...
Weak deep-layer shear will be prevalent across much of the region on
Thursday afternoon, south of modest mid-level westerlies across
NY/New England associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough over
southeast Canada. Rich boundary-layer moisture will remain prevalent
from the DE Valley southward. This will support a primary threat of
wet microbursts producing erratic damaging winds. Have maintained a
level 2-SLGT risk in a portion of the Southeast for the most
probable corridor of widespread thunderstorms producing localized
damaging winds.

..Grams.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 100601
SWODY2
SPC AC 100600

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
KANSAS TO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly late afternoon
and evening on Friday, from northeast Kansas to eastern Iowa and
northwest Illinois.

... Central Great Plains to Midwest ...

A positive-tilt trough will be moving across the northern Plains
through the forecast period. To the south, a low-amplitude
short-wave trough will be moving through the central Great Plains.
At the same time, a diffuse/weak surface cold front will push
east/southeast through the Plains.

At the start of the forecast period one or more decaying MCSs should
be ongoing across portions of Iowa perhaps into northern Illinois to
perhaps as far east as lower Michigan. These MCSs could pose a
residual risk for at least isolated wind damage through the morning.

During the mid-to-late afternoon, additional thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the wake of the morning convection. At this
time guidance supports multiple initiation points across the area,
the precise locations of which will be strongly influenced by the
evolution of the morning convection.

At this time, the most likely scenario is for initial thunderstorms
to develop across southeast Iowa or northern Missouri along the
residual outflow boundary from the morning convection. A second area
of initiation is likely farther to the west along the diffuse
surface cold front in Nebraska or northeast Kansas, perhaps
extending northward into Minnesota. In both areas, strong
instability may result in rapid thunderstorm development capable of
producing strong wind and large hail. Given the degree of
instability and an existing boundary, a tornado or two may also be
possible, especially with initial thunderstorm development.

With time, expectation is that these convective clusters will grow
upscale as they move east and the primary severe threat should
transition to severe wind gusts.

... High Plains ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late afternoon. These
storms will eventually grow upscale and move southeast toward the
Great Plains. An isolated severe wind threat will be possible with
any of these storms.

... Eastern US ...

A warm, moist, weakly capped airmass will be in place across much of
the east. Despite the absence of pronounced foci for initiation,
widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms should develop during
the late morning into the afternoon hours. Deep-layer shear should
remain weak and precipitable water values will be lower than in
preceding days. However, the potential will exist for scattered
water-loaded downbursts capable of producing isolated wind damage.

..Marsh.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 101731
SWODY2
SPC AC 101730

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MO
VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds, a tornado or two, and isolated severe hail
are possible, mainly in the mid-afternoon to mid-evening on Friday
from the Lower Missouri Valley to the southern Great Lakes.

...Lower MO Valley to the southern Great Lakes...
Remnants of a probable severe MCS on D1 over the Mid-MO Valley
should be ongoing from eastern IA to southern Lower MI at 12Z
Friday. In its wake, the composite MCV/low-amplitude shortwave
trough should drift east across the Upper MS Valley. A compact belt
of enhanced 700-500 mb winds will aid in another round of multicell
clusters later in the afternoon as storms redevelop along trailing
outflows to the Lower MO Valley. Large buoyancy will promote initial
severe hail transitioning to scattered strong to severe gusts.
Whether a forward-propagating MCS will develop with a greater severe
wind threat is uncertain given low confidence on mesoscale placement
of prior convective outflow coincident with the compact flow
enhancement. A tornado or two is also possible, focused along
wherever the large-scale convective outflow sets up.

...Upper Midwest...
Isolated severe storms from both damaging winds and hail are
possible as scattered to widespread thunderstorms develop by late
afternoon to early evening Friday along the synoptic cold front from
northern MN to eastern SD. Despite ample buoyancy ahead of the
front, mid-level flow enhancement should be largely confined west of
the front. This will be due to the initial positive-tilt orientation
and compactness of the shortwave trough across the southern Canadian
Prairies into the northern Great Plains.

...Central to southern High Plains...
Modest mid-level northwesterlies will support an isolated severe
threat across the bulk of the High Plains amid a moderately buoyant
airmass. Post-frontal, upslope flow should yield a few weak
supercells in the southeast WY/northeast CO vicinity. Adequate
deep-layer shear should exist for transient mid-level rotation and
multicell clustering in eastern NM and west TX. Isolated severe
wind/hail are possible from mid-afternoon to mid-evening Friday.

...East...
A low-amplitude mid-level trough will move east from QC to the
Canadian Maritimes. Weak height rises/warming mid-level temperatures
will occur in its wake across New England, limiting convective coverage/intensity on Friday. Isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms are probable along the lee of the Appalachians into
the higher terrain of southern New England. Weaker deep-layer shear
and lower PW values relative to prior days will temper wet
microburst potential. Have maintained a level 1-MRGL risk where the
greatest coverage of pulse storms is expected.

..Grams.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110600
SWODY2
SPC AC 110558

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1258 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHEAST
INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of
isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to
the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

... Synopsis ...

The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature
mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the
central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons
will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest
into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the
forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making
little forward progress across the southern Great Plains.

... Great Lakes Region ...

A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through
eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into
afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level
jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the
upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level
moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg.

As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across
lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear
being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist
with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to
the degree of instability and precipitable water values around
1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting
boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second,
stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may
develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual
low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be
possible.

... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ...

One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing
at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries
and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period.
Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values
perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This
degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts
and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely
severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the
degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life
cycle.

During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated
across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within
a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow
and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the
convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If
confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to
be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by
wind potential.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110657
SWODY2
SPC AC 110655

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR SUMMARY GRAMMAR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of
isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to
the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

... Synopsis ...

The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature
mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the
central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons
will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest
into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the
forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making
little forward progress across the southern Great Plains.

... Great Lakes Region ...

A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through
eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into
afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level
jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the
upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level
moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg.

As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across
lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear
being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist
with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to
the degree of instability and precipitable water values around
1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting
boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second,
stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may
develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual
low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be
possible.

... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ...

One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing
at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries
and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period.
Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values
perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This
degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts
and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely
severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the
degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life
cycle.

During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated
across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within
a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow
and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the
convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If
confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to
be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by
wind potential.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110703
SWODY2
SPC AC 110701

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 2
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0201 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT THUNDER LINE GROUPING

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of
isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to
the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

... Synopsis ...

The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature
mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the
central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons
will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest
into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the
forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making
little forward progress across the southern Great Plains.

... Great Lakes Region ...

A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through
eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into
afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level
jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the
upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level
moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg.

As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across
lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear
being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist
with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to
the degree of instability and precipitable water values around
1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting
boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second,
stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may
develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual
low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be
possible.

... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ...

One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing
at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries
and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period.
Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values
perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This
degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts
and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely
severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the
degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life
cycle.

During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated
across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within
a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow
and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the
convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If
confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to
be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by
wind potential.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 110711
SWODY2
SPC AC 110710

Day 2 Convective Outlook CORR 3
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...AND MUCH OF EASTERN MICHIGAN...

CORRECTED FOR INCORRECT MARGINAL LINE GROUPING

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, into eastern Michigan on Saturday. A broad swath of
isolated severe thunderstorms is anticipated from the Great Lakes to
the southern High Plains, mainly Saturday afternoon/evening.

... Synopsis ...

The large-scale pattern across the US on Saturday will feature
mid-level ridges on both coasts and a broad trough across the
central US. Within this cyclonic flow, multiple vorticity ribbons
will quickly move northeast across the Great Lakes and into Ontario.

At the surface, a cold front will stretch from Wisconsin southwest
into northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandles at the start of the
forecast period and should move east across Michigan while making
little forward progress across the southern Great Plains.

... Great Lakes Region ...

A lead shortwave trough/vorticity maximum will quickly move through
eastern Wisconsin and lower Michigan during the late morning into
afternoon. In response to the approaching trough, a modest low-level
jet will support surface dewpoints rising to/being sustained in the
upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs range. Given the degree of low-level
moisture, modest diurnal heating will support most-unstable CAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg.

As large-scale ascent overspreads the surface cold front across
lower Michigan, one or more bands of convection are expected to
develop along and ahead of the front. Despite effective-layer shear
being generally less than 35 knots, some severe potential will exist
with this convection -- primarily strong downdraft winds -- owing to
the degree of instability and precipitable water values around
1.75". Additionally, with a modest low-level jet and a preexisting
boundary in the vicinity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

Farther west, in response to the large-scale ascent for the second,
stronger shortwave trough, a second round of thunderstorms may
develop across portions of Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan. Despite being post frontal, diurnal heating and residual
low-level moisture will support most-unstable CAPE around 1000-1500
J/kg. Isolated large hail and strong thunderstorm outflows will be
possible.

... Central and Southern Rockies into the Southern Plains ...

One or more decaying MCSs and perhaps attendant MCVs may be ongoing
at the start of the period across the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into
Oklahoma. The combination of multiple potential outflow boundaries
and localized ascent associated with any MCV will result in
scattered to widespread thunderstorm development through the period.
Diurnal heating of a very moist airmass will result in CAPE values
perhaps as high as 3000 J/kg across portions of the area. This
degree of instability coupled with precipitable water values
approaching 2 inches will yield the potential for wet microbursts
and associated damaging winds. Despite wind being the more likely
severe threat, isolated large hail may also be possible given the
degree of instability, especially early in the thunderstorm life
cycle.

During the afternoon, additional thunderstorms are anticipated
across the higher terrain of the central and southern Rockies within
a moist upslope low-level flow. Modest northwesterly mid-level flow
and perhaps a subtle short-wave trough will help organize the
convection into a slow moving south-southeast moving MCS. If
confidence increases in a well-organized MCS, the area may need to
be upgraded to categorical upgrade to Level 2/Slight Risk driven by
wind potential.

..Marsh.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 111730
SWODY2
SPC AC 111729

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
EASTERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible across northeast Indiana,
northwest Ohio, and eastern Michigan on Saturday. Large hail and
damaging gusts are possible over much of southwest Texas into
southeast New Mexico during the afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
A shortwave trough will eject northeastward out of the upper MS
Valley, while a separate weaker system drifts east across the
central to southern Plains. Meanwhile, weak ridging will remain over
the Southeast, with a stronger upper high over southern CA.

At the surface, low pressure will move across Lower MI, with drying
across the upper MS Valley as winds veer. A diffuse boundary will
extend southwestward into parts of MO, KS, and OK, providing a focus
for storms.

...Great Lakes Region...
Strong heating will occur ahead of a cold front, with upper 60s F
dewpoints over IN, OH, and much of Lower MI. Little cooling aloft is
forecast with the glancing upper wave, but MLCAPE will likely exceed
2000 J/kg. Convergence within the surface trough will lead to
scattered storms along the wind shift, with a few severe gusts and
marginal hail possible. Low-level shear will be strongest over
northern Lower MI, and an isolated supercell cannot be ruled out.
Some uncertainty exist regarding overall storm coverage, as midlevel
subsidence moves in late in the day.

...OH/Mid MS Valleys to the southern Plains...
Ongoing storms with outflow may exist from parts of the South Plains
into OK Saturday morning. Any associated boundaries may provide a
focus for redevelopment during the afternoon, as 2000-3000 J/kg
MUCAPE develops. Aside from that, moist easterly low-level flow
through a deep layer will be favorable for thunderstorms across
almost all of Southwest TX, including the Big Bend area. While shear
will be weak, lightly veering winds with height along with steep
lapse rates and strong instability should lead to a few robust,
slow-moving storms with localized damaging hail and downburst
potential.

..Jewell.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 120518
SWODY2
SPC AC 120516

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM VIRGINIA
INTO NEW YORK...AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be
possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region
northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms
may occur from eastern Oklahoma into southern Missouri.

...Discussion...

Broad cyclonic flow aloft will envelop the northern Plains to the
Northeast as an upper shortwave trough meanders east while
de-amplifying on Sunday. Over the southern Plains, a weak upper low
may stall over the region.

A seasonally very moist boundary layer will extend across much of
the southern Plains to the Midwest and into the Eastern Seaboard,
providing areas of moderate instability. However, stronger vertical
shear will remain displaced to the north, near the international
border, limiting overlap of instability with wind profiles
sufficient of organized severe convection. Furthermore, heavy rain
across parts of the southern Plains is forecast for Saturday/Day 1.
This may dampen stronger heating and result in poor lapse rates,
limiting overall severe potential. While some gusty winds are
possible across the broad moist warm sector from the southern
Rockies into the Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley vicinity, weak deep-layer
flow and a lack of any discernible mechanisms to focus/organize
thunderstorm activity should limit overall severe potential and the
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed for much of the
region. The exception is across portions of OK into southern MO on
the eastern periphery of the weak upper low and a possible MCV from
convection in the Day 1/Saturday period. This feature may provide
some local focus/enhancement to shear and a couple of strong to
severe storms producing gusty winds will be possible.

Some greater potential for strong wind gusts still appears possible
across parts of the VA into NY. Stronger heating will support
steepened low-level lapse rates within the very moist and unstable
airmass, and sporadic wet microbursts may occur. Some modestly
enhanced westerly flow across PA/NY may aid in development of
propagating clusters/outflows as well, and the Marginal risk (level
1 of 5) remains largely unchanged from the prior Day 3 outlook.

..Leitman.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 121721
SWODY2
SPC AC 121719

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1219 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL
VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK...AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be
possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region
northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms
may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas.

...From central VA/NC northward into northern NY...
An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest
midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level
winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and
unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther
south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating
occurs, with weak flow aloft.

While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out
on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm
sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little
organization is expected.

...Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas...
Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO,
OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate
outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but
pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest
heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and
this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong
gusts.

..Jewell.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 130508
SWODY2
SPC AC 130506

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1206 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains late Monday afternoon and evening.

...Northern Plains...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough will shift east across the
northern Rockies/MT on Monday. In response, a surface low is
forecast to develop over the northern High Plains, with attendant
surface trough extending southward into the central High Plains.
Strong heating will result in deep boundary layer mixing ahead of a
cold front developing southward across MT/ND. Modest moisture and
steep lapse rates will nonetheless support modest instability.
Increasing westerly flow aloft also will provide support for
marginal effective shear (near 25 kt). Increasing ascent by late
afternoon and into the evening may support isolated strong to severe
storms initially along the surface trough, with additional
development possible along the cold front during the evening and
into the nighttime hours. Strong gusts and isolated hail will be
possible.

...Mid-Atlantic into FL...

A very moist airmass with PW values near/above 2 inches will be in
place. Where strong heating occurs, weak to moderate instability is
forecast amid steepening low-level lapse rates. Vertical shear will
remain weak, generally 15-20 kt or less. Nevertheless, sporadic
strong gusts will be possible, but overall severe potential is
expected to remain low at this time.

..Leitman.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 131732
SWODY2
SPC AC 131731

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions
of the northern Plains/Rockies and across the Mid Atlantic and
Southern New England Monday.

...Mid Atlantic to southern New England...
Weak troughing at the northern periphery of the subtropical ridge
will shift northward across parts of the Northeast Monday. At the
surface, a wind shift/weak front will move from the eastern Great
Lakes into the upper OH/St Lawrence Valley by early afternoon. A
very warm and humid air mass is in place east of the front with
dewpoints in the 70s F expected. Despite some lingering cloud cover,
diurnal heating should support moderate destabilization over much of
the Northeast. Widespread thunderstorm activity is expected along
and ahead of the surface boundary from northern VA into southern NY.
Slight enhancement of the flow aloft to near 20 kt from the
approaching shortwave could be enough to foster some longer-lived
clusters with damaging gust potential from northern VA into southern
NY. Elsewhere across the East, confidence in storm coverage/damaging
wind potential is lower, but any stronger storms will remain cable
of damaging outflow gusts from heavily water-loaded downdrafts.

...Northern Rockies and Plains...
An upper trough, forecast to emanate from southern Canada, will move
eastward over the northern Rockies/Plains Monday and Monday night.
Ascent from this feature will overspread a weak cold front and lee
trough/low, that will serve as a focus for scattered thunderstorms
through afternoon and evening. Along the southern fringes of
enhanced westerly flow aloft, a mix of multicells and transient
supercells is expected. Modest surface moisture and deep
boundary-layer mixing will support moderate buoyancy atop inverted-v
structures favorable for damaging gusts and some hail with storms
from northern WY into the western Dakotas.

Late in the evening and into the overnight hours, low-level warm
advection and continued ascent from the upper trough are expected to
intensify along and north of the cold front from eastern MT into ND.
A belt of strong mid-level flow (35-50 kt) will overlap with
elevated destabilization north of the front. While not overly
robust, sufficient buoyancy (MUCAPE ~1000 J/kg) and elongated
hodographs should support a few organized elevated storms (including
supercell structures) capable of isolated hail.

...Southeast States...
A seasonably warm and moist air mass will again reside across much
of the southeastern US beneath broad subtropical ridging aloft.
Scattered to numerous storms expected Monday afternoon and evening
amid strong diurnal heating and weak background ascent. With PWATs
near or exceeding two inches and moderate buoyancy, a few stronger
thunderstorm clusters may develop. With weak vertical shear below 15
kt, organized storms on a widespread basis are not expected. Still,
sporadic damaging gusts from wet microbursts are possible.

..Lyons.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 140537
SWODY2
SPC AC 140535

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest. A
greater concentration of severe wind gusts and hail will be focused
mainly across parts of Nebraska and South Dakota.

...Northern/Central Plains to Upper Midwest...

A positive-tilt upper shortwave trough is forecast to eject eastward
across the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Another shortwave impulse
ahead of this main system will move across SD/NE and into the Upper
Midwest. Both of these features will result in increasing mid/upper
westerly flow. In response to increasing flow and height falls, a
surface low will develop over western SD and move into southern MN
by Wednesday morning. Meanwhile, a cold front will sag southward
across MT, the Dakotas and northern MN, while a surface trough
extends southward into the central High Plains.

Ahead of the triple point within the warm sector south of the cold
front, mid/upper 60s F dewpoints will be in place beneath steep
midlevel lapse rates. This will foster 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE.
Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will support a mix of cells and
clusters capable of producing damaging gusts and hail. Most guidance
suggest some upscale growth will occur via clustering/consolidating
outflows by late afternoon across parts of SD/NE. A 30-40 kt
southwesterly low-level jet developing by early evening could aid in maintaining a bowing MCS with eastward extent toward the MO River.
If this occurs, an increasing risk for severe wind gusts will be
possible. Given a consistent signal across forecast guidance and a
favorable forecast environment, a Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has
been included, mainly for parts of NE/SD.

Additional strong to isolated severe storms will be possible along
the sagging cold front into northern MN, as well as across eastern
WY and western SD/NE in the post-frontal upslope flow regime.
Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible with these storms.

...Mid-MS Valley...

Forecast guidance has trended weaker with a prior depiction of a
weak low/MCV across the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley vicinity. A very moist
airmass (70s F dewpoints) will be in place, supporting modest
instability (1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE). However, vertical shear is
forecast to be very weak (around 15 kt), limiting potential for organized/longer-lived updrafts. Where stronger heating occurs,
steepened low-level lapse rates could support sporadic strong
downburst winds. Overall severe potential appear limited and the
Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) has been removed with this update.

..Leitman.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 141738
SWODY2
SPC AC 141736

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Tuesday afternoon and
evening across portions of the central Plains to Upper Midwest.
Isolated damaging gusts are also possible over parts of the northern
Great Basin.

...Central/Northern Plains to the upper Midwest...
A positive-tilt upper trough is forecast to eject eastward with
several weaker leading disturbances located across the northern
Rockies Tuesday. Coincident with increasing mid/upper westerly flow,
height falls and weak ascent will support the development of a
surface low over western SD. This low will move into southern MN by
Wednesday morning, while a cold front will sag southward across MT,
the Dakotas and northern MN.

South of the front and surface low, a seasonably warm/humid air mass
will be in place near the triple point across NE and eastern SD,
extending northward along the front into the upper Midwest. Moderate
to strong destabilization (2500-3500 J/kg MLCAPE), and ascent from
the approaching upper troughs will promote scattered strong to
severe storms by the afternoon. Vertical shear around 25-35 kt will
support a mix of cells and clusters capable of damaging gusts and
hail.

A fairly quick transition to upscale growth is likely Tuesday
evening given the large buoyancy and weaker low-level flow allowing
for consolidation of outflow. Most CAM solutions show eventual MCS
development across central/southeast NE into the overnight hours.
Aided by a 40+ kt southerly low-level jet, this MCS could continue
into parts of western IA and northern KS with a risk for damaging
gusts through 12z.

Farther northeast along the front, veered low-level flow and largely unidirectional wind profiles should favor a predominately linear
storm mode. One or more clusters may emerge primarily with a risk
for damaging gusts and hail as they moving from MN to northern WI
and western upper MI by Tuesday evening. Locally stronger flow aloft
and near the front could also support a brief tornado or two.

Isolated hail and damaging gusts will also be possible in the
post-frontal upslope flow regime across northern and eastern WY into
western SD. Enhanced mid-level flow and 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE
could support a few supercells or stronger clusters near and along
the front.

...Eastern Great Basin...
As the cold front gradually moves south, it should begin to stall
across the northern Great basin Tuesday afternoon. As forcing for
ascent from the upper trough interacts with strong diurnal heating,
scattered thunderstorm are expected along the front and adjacent
higher terrain from northeast NV, through northern UT and into
southwestern WY. Weak to moderate SBCAPE atop deep inverted-V
structures will favor strong downdrafts with these high-based
storms. Damaging gust potential will be maximized along the front
where locally stronger convergence and deep-layer shear should
support a larger concentration and greater persistence of
strong/occasionally severe storm clusters.

...Mid MS Valley...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms remain likely with several
convectively augmented vort maxima/MCVs currently observed across central/northeast TX. While less defined than previous guidance
cycles, locally stronger forcing for ascent and enhanced
low/mid-level flow could support one or more clusters of strong to
occasional severe storm Tuesday afternoon across the Mid MS Valley.
These clusters will develop within a very warm/unstable air mass
with the potential for occasional damaging gusts from heavily
water-loaded downdrafts. As mentioned in the prior outlook,
confidence in the ultimate location of theses features as well as
the resulting storm coverage/intensity remains too low to introduce
higher severe probabilities.

...Southern AZ...
Weak easterly flow and seasonably high monsoon moisture south of the
upper ridge are expected to support scattered thunderstorms across
parts of southern AZ Tuesday afternoon and evening. While steering
flow is not overly strong, some enhancement of the mid-level
easterlies could promote slightly more organized storm clusters
capable of damaging gusts given the deeply mixed PBL.

...Southeast and FL...
A weak tropical wave will likely serve as a focus for numerous
thunderstorms Tuesday and Tuesday night across parts of FL and the
Gulf Coast. A warm, unstable and humid air mass will support
numerous thunderstorm clusters over a broad area capable of sporadic
damaging downbursts through much of the day. Locally higher severe probabilities will be greatest along sea breeze boundaries and near
the upper vort max. However, confidence in more than occasional
severe potential is low.

..Lyons.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 150529
SWODY2
SPC AC 150527

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the
Great Lakes.

...Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes Vicinity...

An upper shortwave trough and MCV is forecast to be located over IA
Wednesday morning. Some ongoing convection is possible from MN into
IA associated with this feature and attendant outflow. As the MCV
shifts east/northeast, a composite outflow/surface cold front
located from central WI into eastern IA will develop eastward across
portion of northern MO/IL through the evening. The downstream warm
sector will be characterized rich moisture, with dewpoints in the
70s F. Daytime heating and modest lapse rates will support strong
instability (2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE). Vertical shear should increase
as strengthening midlevel westerlies overspread the region,
resulting in 25-35 kt effective shear magnitudes. Organized cells
and clusters will pose a risk for damaging gusts. Low-level shear
may be somewhat enhanced close to the MCV/surface low across
northern IL. Forecast soundings show modestly enlarged/curved
hodographs and a tornado or two could also occur. A more marginal
severe risk could spread east into portions of Lower MI and northern
IN during the late evening/overnight hours, but overall risk should
gradually diminish with eastward extent.

...Central Plains Vicinity...

The western edge of a southward sagging cold front will move across
eastern CO/NE and portions of KS during the day. A very moist and
unstable airmass is expected across the region. Vertical shear will
remain modest, with stronger midlevel westerlies expected to lag
behind the front. Nevertheless, the sagging surface front should
provide focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development
within the warm sector, with an accompanying risk for strong gusts.

Additional storms are expected to develop over the central High
Plains of southeast WY/eastern CO in the post-frontal upslope
regime. This activity will spread eastward during the evening and
may be elevated. Isolated hail and strong gusts will be possible
initially. While guidance varies considerably, some potential exists
for an MCS to develop over parts of KS during the nighttime hours as
the front continues to sag southward and a modest low-level jet
develops. Given large model spread, will hold off on higher outlook probabilities at this time.

...Upper Ohio Valley...

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected across the region i
response to a shortwave impulse. While modest instability is
forecast amid a very moist airmass, vertical shear will remain weak.
Sporadic strong gusts/wet microbursts could occur, but organized
severe potential continues to be limited/uncertain.

..Leitman.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 151734
SWODY2
SPC AC 151732

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1232 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FRONT
RANGE AND THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the
Great Lakes.

...Front Range and High Plains...
A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will intensify as it
moves eastward across the central US Wednesday. A cold front across
the Front Range and High Plains will continue to sag slowly
southward as surface moisture deepens behind it. Within the broad up
slope flow regime, scattered storm development is expected across
the higher terrain of the central Rockies and High Plains by early
afternoon Wednesday. Enhanced mid-level flow will support initial
supercells capable of hail and isolated damaging gusts. Local
terrain effects and enhanced low-level shear near the front may also
allow for a tornado or two. Scattered severe storms expand in
coverage across the I-25 corridor through the afternoon before
moving eastward into the plains through the evening.

How far east the severe threat will extend remains uncertain as
cooler temperatures and lingering inhibition are likely to be in
place behind the front. Should sufficient upscale growth take place,
an MCS may develop and merge with additional convection farther east
before continuing south/southeastward across the central Plains
overnight. This would support a continued risk for at least isolated
damaging gusts.

...Central Plains...
As the cold front continues to move southward across the central
Plains, lingering inhibition and forcing for ascent displaced to the
north should limit convective development along the front through
much of the day However, warm surface temperatures and 60s-70s F
surface dewpoints will support large buoyancy along the front. As a
30-40 kt low-level jet increases into the evening, storm development
is expected with increasing low-level warm air advection. Isolated
damaging gust are possible.

...Great Lakes...
A convectively augmented shortwave trough over the central Plains
will quickly move eastward along the sagging cold front. Ascent from
this feature will aid in developing a wave cyclone along the front,
enhancing the low-level flow field across parts of WI and northern
IL. An ongoing arc of storms near the surface low should gradually
re-intensify through the morning and into the early afternoon.
Moderate MLCAPE and strengthening flow aloft will support a mix of
cells and clusters. The primary risk is expected to be damaging
gusts, though enlarged low-level hodographs and 100-200 J/kg of
MLCAPE below 3km AGL may support some tornado risk with the more
cellular elements. With time gradual upscale growth into a more
linear structure is expected near the western shores of Lake
Michigan with a continued risk for damaging gusts.

To the east, strong heating of a very humid air mass is expected
across Lower Michigan through the afternoon. Scattered to widespread
storms are likely along the typical lake breeze fronts. Vertical
shear will be weaker through the afternoon, though at least some
enhancement of the flow field could support isolated damaging gusts
with scattered to numerous storms expected.

There is some potential for a more organized line/cluster of storms
on the western side of the lake to move eastward across Lake
Michigan late in the evening and through the overnight hours.
Stronger flow aloft near the shortwave trough could support damaging
gust and brief tornado potential across parts of northern Lower
Michigan overnight. Higher severe probabilities could be needed if
confidence in this convective scenario increases in future outlooks.


...Upper OH valley...
Widespread thunderstorms are expected across the region in response
to a shortwave impulse. Modest instability is forecast amid a very
moist airmass. While vertical shear will remain fairly limited, some
slight enhancement near the upper trough could support a few
longer-lived storm clusters. Isolated strong gusts/wet microbursts
could occur, with the more intense storms.

...Northern Gulf Coast...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms associated with Invest 93L will occasionally move onshore across the northern/central Gulf Coast
Wednesday and Wednesday night. Enhancement of low and mid-level
easterly shear north of the weak surface circulation may support a
few longer-lived cells near the coast. Sporadic damaging gusts and
perhaps a brief tornado are possible, though confidence in this
convective scenario is very low.

..Lyons.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 160540
SWODY2
SPC AC 160538

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1238 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC...AND
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging gusts are possible from southern Missouri into the
Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast on Thursday.

...Northeast...

A shortwave trough is forecast to extend from southern Quebec to
near Long Island early Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will
track from Lake Huron northeast along the St. Lawrence Valley. A
trailing cold front will develop east across the Upper Ohio Valley
and Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front,
a very moist airmass will be in place, supporting MLCAPE values from
around 1000-2000 J/kg.

While 30-40 kt of westerly flow will overspread portions of the
Northeast, effective shear will remain modest, but sufficient for
isolated organized cells (20-30 kt). The surface low is likely to
remain north of the international border, but the cold front should
provide some focus for afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity.
However, subsidence behind the morning shortwave and possibly some
early day showers and cloud cover could hinder thunderstorm
development initially. As a result storms may develop a bit further
south and east than previously forecast, and the Marginal risk
(level 1 of 5) has been removed for parts of the Upper OH
Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. Storms that do develop across the
Northeast still may pose a risk for locally strong gusts, and closer
to the surface low, a tornado or two.

...Southern MO/OH Valley to the Mid-Atlantic...

A seasonally very moist airmass will reside to the south of the
southward sagging cold front extending from the MO Ozarks into
southern IL/IN/OH. A corridor of strong instability is expected
ahead of the front, aided by 70s dewpoints and heating into the mid
80s to mid 90s. Vertical shear will be much weaker with southward
extent, but any MCVs from prior day's convection coupled with the
sagging cold front, should provide focused for scattered
thunderstorm development. Thunderstorm clusters will mainly pose a
risk for strong gusts from water laden downdrafts.

Additional storms are expected to develop over the higher terrain of
WV/VA along a surface trough and ahead of the surface cold front. A
similar environment to that further east will exist (high CAPE, weak
shear). Thunderstorm clusters may produce isolated strong gusts.

..Leitman.. 07/16/2025

$$

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ACUS02 KWNS 161736
SWODY2
SPC AC 161735

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NEW ENGLAND TO THE MID ATLANTIC...EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND OZARKS...AND OVER THE FAR NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Sporadic damaging gusts are expected from New York into New England
on Thursday, with strong afternoon storms also from Virginia
westward toward Kansas. Isolated cells may also produce hail over
the far northern High Plains late.

...Northeast...
A weak lead wave will move across eastern NY into New England
Thursday morning, with an influx of theta-e around 850 mb with a few thunderstorms possible. Behind this disturbance, a stronger wave
will move across the Great Lakes during the day with an upper-level
speed max nosing into northern NY and into Maine late. Meanwhile, a
surface low will deepen as it moves primarily down the St. Lawrence
Valley. Southwest flow will increase ahead of the low, with drying
pushing across much of western PA and NY. However, ascent will
deepen the moist boundary layer from eastern NY into New England
during the afternoon, with the strongest overall lift from northern
NY at 21Z into MA by 03Z.

Mitigating overall potential will be generally weak low to midlevel
lapse rates, which may minimize updraft strength, while subsidence
arrives from the west. The best overall potential appears to be far
northern areas coincident with stronger deep-layer ascent, which may
counteract the less than marginal thermo profiles. Increasing mean
winds in the lowest few km may support sporadic strong to damaging
gusts across the entire region, from late afternoon through evening.
Overall, CAM signals are mixed, and model trends will be
re-evaluated going forward in the forecast cycle.

...KS...Ozarks...OH Valley into VA...
Modest westerly flow will extend from the central Plains to the Mid
Atlantic, on the southern periphery of a stronger trough moving
across NY/New England. Substantial moisture with 70s F dewpoints
will remain south of an elongated east/west oriented boundary, with
2000+ MLCAPE from the Delmarva westward across the OH Valley and
into parts of southern KS/northern OK. Clusters of afternoon storms
are likely to form within this zone especially over the high terrain
from western VA into WV and KY, and from southern MO into southern
KS. Locally damaging downbursts are most likely.

...Far northern High Plains...
Models signals are mixed but appear to indicate a threat of at least
isolated cells capable of hail developing along the MT/Canada border
around 00Z, spreading southeastward toward far southwest ND into
Friday morning. This zone will become heated during the day with a
surface trough over central MT, and beneath cool midlevel
temperatures aloft with a weak midlevel wave. A plume of higher
theta-e will develop around 850 mb from eastern WY/MT into the
Dakotas with moistening through 700 mb as well. Moderate deep-layer
shear will thus support a conditional risk of isolated cells
producing hail overnight.

..Jewell.. 07/16/2025

$$

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