ACUS01 KWNS 020058
SWODY1
SPC AC 020056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Tue Jul 01 2025

Valid 020100Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms should continue this evening over
parts of the northern/central Plains, with large hail the primary
risk. Isolated damaging winds will also remain possible for a couple
more hours across portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Multiple supercells developed this afternoon/evening across parts of
the northern/central High Plains, generally along/east of a surface
lee trough. Although low-level flow remains fairly modest per area
VWPs, sufficient west-northwesterly mid/upper-level flow will
continue to foster around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear and updraft organization. Persistent supercells will pose mainly a large hail
threat as they move slowly south-southeastward for at least the next
several hours. An increasing risk for isolated severe winds may also
develop given the well-mixed boundary layer and gradual upscale
growth anticipated. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 1538 for more
details on the short-term severe threat across this region. A
separate area of mainly elevated convection may develop later
tonight across a broader portion of SD in a low-level warm advection
regime. This activity may have an isolated hail threat.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast...
Loosely organized convection should continue this evening from parts
of the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast along/ahead of a cold front. An
isolated threat for damaging winds should persist where pockets of
moderate instability remain. But, generally modest deep-layer shear
and a gradually stabilizing boundary layer with the loss of daytime
heating will likely lead to a gradual reduction in the overall
severe threat this evening.

..Gleason.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 020530
SWODY1
SPC AC 020529

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1229 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts
of the northern Rockies/High Plains, Great Basin, and Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Ample daytime heating is forecast today on the northern/western
periphery of upper ridging centered over the Plains. Current
expectations are that high-based thunderstorms will develop
initially over the higher terrain of the northern Rockies, and
subsequently spread east-northeastward through the evening. Even
with low-level moisture and instability expected to remain
modest/weak, a very well-mixed boundary layer will be in place
across this region and the adjacent High Plains. Thunderstorm
downdrafts will likely be able to efficiently mix modestly enhanced
mid-level flow to the surface, and isolated severe gusts should
occur with this activity as it moves across MT and vicinity through
this evening. Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe
winds was not high enough to include greater severe probabilities
with this update.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of
the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low
over CA and the western Great Basin. While some cloud cover may
limit diurnal heating and related steepening of low-level lapse
rates to some extent this afternoon, it still appears probable that
a generally well-mixed boundary layer will exist across much of NV
into western UT. At least scattered thunderstorms should spread
northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with isolated
severe wind gusts possible.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough
over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale
ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. A seasonably
moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these
regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of
moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some
enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms, and
a conditionally favorable environment for severe thunderstorms
remains apparent. Primary uncertainty remains overall convective
coverage given generally weak large-scale ascent. Have therefore
maintained the Marginal Risk for severe hail/wind across these
regions with minimal changes.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves
slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft
will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also
expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through
the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and
vicinity, the potential for damaging winds currently appears too
limited to include low severe probabilities at this time.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021251
SWODY1
SPC AC 021250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 021300Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL INTO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this
afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur
today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid- to upper-level trough/low centered
over CA with downstream upper ridging centered over the
north-central Rockies and adjacent northern High Plains. Modest
mid- to high-level west-southwesterly 500-250 mb flow (20-50 kt) is
forecast to remain across the northern Rockies and plains per model
data. Surface observations this morning show 40s to lower 50s deg F
dewpoints over MT. Strong heating will contribute to weak to
moderate buoyancy over the plains (500-1250 J/kg MLCAPE) and very
steep lapse rates from the surface into the mid levels. Orographic
ascent will likely lead to isolated to scattered storms developing
by mid afternoon initially over southern MT and other
terrain-favored locales. This activity is forecast to spread
north/northeast during the late afternoon/evening. Thunderstorm
coverage will probably increase by the early evening in the form of
a few clusters and perhaps linearly oriented outflow surges.
Evaporative cooling will facilitate efficient downdrafts and severe
gusts (60-70 mph) with the stronger cores.

...Great Basin...
Modestly enhanced southerly flow will be present today over parts of
the Great Basin in association with a decaying/weak upper trough/low
over CA and the western Great Basin. Scattered thunderstorms should
spread northward across these areas this afternoon/evening, with
isolated severe wind gusts possible.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
As upper ridging builds over the Plains today, a shortwave trough
over Ontario will dig southeastward and provide glancing large-scale
ascent over parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes. Model
guidance varies considerably on storm coverage, which is likely
related to capping concerns especially with westward extent into the SD/IA/southwest MN vicinity. Nonetheless, a seasonably
moist low-level airmass is expected to remain over most of these
regions, and daytime heating will likely aid in the development of
moderate to strong instability along/south of a front. Some
enhancement to the mid/upper-level west-northwesterly flow should
support sufficient deep-layer shear for organized thunderstorms with
an attendant hail/wind risk with the stronger storms.

...Eastern North Carolina...
Weak upper troughing will advance eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas as a surface cold front likewise moves
slowly east-southeastward across these areas. Poor lapse rates aloft
will likely limit updraft strength, and deep-layer shear is also
expected to remain weak. While thunderstorms should develop through
the afternoon along/ahead of the front across eastern NC and
vicinity, the potential for damaging winds continues to appear to be
too limited for low probabilities.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021634
SWODY1
SPC AC 021632

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this
afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur
today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending
from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly
drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western
periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay
well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity
maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast
to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated
with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps
additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving
across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high
terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm
coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the
afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening.
Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm
structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates
will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts,
particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant.

...Western Great Basin...
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and
evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into
central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern
periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high
LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to
scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm
coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is
over southern NV.

...AZ...
12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning
and the expectation is that this moisture will support the
development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher
terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower
elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe
gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests
the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all,
which should limit the overall severe potential.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI,
Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this
front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are
possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will
support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger
storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther
west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There
is some chance development occurs along the front during the
afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to
overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears
more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level
jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and
vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large
hail are possible.

...Eastern NC...
Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance
eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these
features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft
strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well.
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest
storms.

..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/02/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 021942
SWODY1
SPC AC 021941

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0241 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH CENTRAL
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorm gusts are possible across Montana this
afternoon into the evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur
today across parts of the Great Basin and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...20z Update...
There are no changes are needed to the D1 Convective Outlook. See
previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/02/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025/

...Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging extending
from the southern Plains into central AB/SK. An upper low is slowly
drifting eastward into southern CA, impinging on the western
periphery of this upper ridging. This upper low is forecast to stay
well south of the region throughout the day, but a modest vorticity
maximum, generated by convection east of this upper low, is forecast
to move into the northern Rockies this afternoon. Ascent associated
with this vorticity max coupled with orographic ascent, and perhaps
additional large-scale ascent ahead of weak shortwave trough moving
across OR, is expected to result in thunderstorms over the high
terrain as the airmass diurnally destabilizes this afternoon.
Persistent southwesterly flow aloft will then take these storms north/northeastward into more of the MT High Plains. Highest storm
coverage is expected from central ID into western MT during the
afternoon, before transition to more of central MT this evening.
Vertical shear is strong enough for occasionally organized storm
structures. The high cloud bases and steep low-level lapse rates
will contribute to the potential for strong to severe wind gusts,
particularly across central MT as storms become outflow dominant.

...Western Great Basin...
Increasing thunderstorm coverage is anticipated this afternoon and
evening east of a slow-moving upper low currently moving into
central/southern CA. Moderate mid-level flow through the eastern
periphery of the upper low combined with modest buoyancy and high
LCLs will result in an environment favorable to isolated to
scattered strong to severe wind gusts. Highest overall thunderstorm
coverage and relatively greater chance for strong/severe gusts is
over southern NV.

...AZ...
12Z PHX sounding sampled a precipitable water of 1.4" this morning
and the expectation is that this moisture will support the
development of numerous thunderstorms across the region this
afternoon/evening. Development is anticipated over the higher
terrain first, before then slowly moving westward toward lower
elevations. This overall pattern generally favors strong to severe
gusts across central AZ. However, very weak mid-level flow suggests
the westward push off the terrain will be slow, if it occurs at all,
which should limit the overall severe potential.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
A weak cold front is forecast to move into northern MN, northern WI,
Upper MI this afternoon. Thunderstorms are anticipated along this
front as it interacts with the modest buoyancy (i.e. MLCAPE around
1000 J/kg) over this region. Isolated pre-frontal storms are
possible across Lower MI as well. Moderate mid-level flow will
support the potential for damaging gusts with any of the stronger
storms.

Additional thunderstorms are possible later this evening farther
west from far southeast SD into southern MN and northern IA. There
is some chance development occurs along the front during the
afternoon, but low-level convergence will likely be too weak to
overcome the convective inhibition. Later, isolated coverage appears
more likely as warm-air advection, supported by modest low-level
jet, increases. Given the expected combination of buoyancy and
vertical shear, one or two more organized storms capable of large
hail are possible.

...Eastern NC...
Weak upper troughing and attendant surface cold front will advance
eastward today across the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.
Widespread thunderstorm development is anticipated ahead of these
features. However, poor lapse rates aloft will likely limit updraft
strength, with deep-layer shear limiting storm organization as well.
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the strongest
storms.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030101
SWODY1
SPC AC 030059

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Wed Jul 02 2025

Valid 030100Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorm gusts remain
possible across parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho and Montana this
evening. Isolated severe thunderstorms may also occur over portions
of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Rockies/High Plains...
Convection has developed this afternoon/evening along the western
and northern periphery of upper troughing centered over the High
Plains. Surface observations and various forecast soundings suggest
a very well mixed airmass is present from eastern OR into the
northern Rockies/High Plains, with surface temperature/dewpoint
spreads of 30-40+ F common. While instability and deep-layer shear
are both forecast to remain fairly modest, there may be some loosely
organized clusters posing a threat for isolated to scattered severe
winds this evening. The greatest concentration of thunderstorms and
severe winds may still focus across parts of central/eastern MT over
the next several hours, where the Slight Risk has been maintained.
See Mesoscale Discussion 1544 for more details on the short-term
severe threat across this area.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...
Widely scattered thunderstorms should continue across parts the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes this evening, as the glancing
influence of upper troughing over Ontario and the northern Great
Lakes overspreads this region. Modest low-level flow per area VWPs
gradually veers to northwesterly at mid/upper levels, which is
supporting around 30-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional
thunderstorm organization has been noted with the ongoing activity
given a sufficiently unstable airmass, and isolated damaging
winds/hail should remain possible for a couple more hours before
convection eventually weakens later this evening.

...Great Basin/Southwest...
Convection earlier today has largely overturned the airmass across
much of NV into western UT. Occasional strong to severe gusts will
remain possible with any ongoing/additional convection across the
Sierra into the Great Basin and Southwest where low-level lapse
rates remain steepened. But, overall severe wind potential is
expected to remain rather isolated, with a small Marginal Risk for
wind maintained across parts of southern NV and vicinity where
low-level lapse rates remain steepened amid 30-40 kt of southerly
deep-layer shear.

..Gleason.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 030532
SWODY1
SPC AC 030530

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1230 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...Northeast...
An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum
will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front
will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Filtered daytime heating of a seasonably moist
low-level airmass will support the development of moderate
instability along/ahead of the cold front by late morning/early
afternoon. Aided by the enhanced mid-level flow, deep-layer shear
will likely be strong enough to support updraft organization,
including a mix of multicells and perhaps some supercells. Scattered severe/damaging winds should be the primary severe threat as
low-level lapse rates gradually steepen. But, some large hail may
occur given favorable shear, especially if any supercells can be
sustained. The Slight Risk has been expanded northward to include
more of New England, as recent guidance trends show potential for
organized severe convection along/ahead much of the length of the
front.

...Northern Plains...
An upper ridge will persist over much of the Plains today. Even so,
a weak mid-level disturbance is forecast to advance eastward from MT
across the northern Plains this afternoon/evening on the northern
periphery of the upper ridge. This feature should encourage isolated
to scattered intense thunderstorm development along/near a warm
front extending across parts of ND by late afternoon/early evening.
Moderate to strong instability is expected along/near this boundary,
aided by steep lapse rates aloft. Modest low-level southerly flow is
forecast to gradually veer and strengthen with height through
mid/upper levels. This will support sufficient deep-layer shear
(30-40 kt) for organized convection, including some supercells
initially across western/central ND. These supercells should pose a
threat for scattered large hail, some of which may be 2+ inches in
diameter given a rather favorable thermodynamic environment
forecast. With time this evening, there may be some potential for
upscale growth into a small bowing cluster with eastward extent into central/eastern ND. If this mode transition occurs, then the
severe/damaging wind threat would likewise increase. Although
low-level flow should remain fairly modest, a tornado or two also
appears possible, particularly along/near the front where effective
SRH should be locally enhanced.

...Upper Midwest...
Compared to the northern Plains, there is generally less confidence
in overall thunderstorm coverage and development across much of the
Upper Midwest through the period. Weak forcing aloft and the
persistence of the upper ridge should tend to limit convective
development in an otherwise moderately to strongly unstable airmass.
Still, any thunderstorms which can develop, perhaps aided by modest
low-level warm advection this evening/tonight, could pose an
isolated severe hail/wind threat. The Marginal Risk area has been
adjusted northward/westward some based on latest guidance trends
showing multiple potential zones of isolated strong/severe
thunderstorms.

..Gleason/Lyons.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031214
SWODY1
SPC AC 031213

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0713 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 031300Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...Northern Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicates a weak disturbance over
western ND is cresting a central U.S. upper ridge. An upstream
minor perturbation is forecast to move from northern WY/MT eastward
into western ND by late afternoon/evening. Coincident with this
feature, an elongated weak low is forecast from the north-central
High Plains northward into SK, with an attendant warm frontal zone
draped east-southeast from ND into the Upper Midwest.

A seasonably moist boundary layer is indicated by morning surface
observations. Dewpoints currently range from the lower 60s deg F
over ND to upper 60s to near 70 in central and eastern SD. Steep
700-500 mb lapse rates coupled with heating in wake of morning cloud debris/shower activity, will likely result in a weakly capped and
very unstable airmass by mid-late afternoon over ND where low-level
moisture is maximized. Isolated to scattered storms are forecast to
develop 20-23 UTC with a few supercells possible. A risk for very
large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany the supercells
before storm outflow and mergers leading to upscale growth into one
or two eastward-moving clusters during the evening. Have introduced
a significant wind highlight for potential peak gusts in the 70-85
mph range. A focused mesoscale wind corridor is indicated by some
00z HREF and MPAS members but sufficient model variability precludes
higher probabilities at this time. This activity will likely weaken
late this evening as it approaches the Red River and adjacent
portions of northern MN.

...Northeast...
An upper trough with an embedded 40-50 kt mid-level speed maximum
will pivot across the Northeast today. A related surface cold front
will likewise develop eastward across this region through the afternoon/evening. Heating will act to destabilize a moist
airmass and support weak to moderate buoyancy (500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE) along/ahead of the cold front by early afternoon. Sufficient
deep-layer shear will favor multicellular and some transient
supercell organization. Scattered damaging (50-65 mph) winds should
be the primary severe threat as low-level lapse rates gradually
steepen. But, some large hail may occur given favorable shear,
especially with any supercell. The severe risk will likely diminish
by the early to mid evening as thunderstorms push east of the coast.

...Upper Midwest...
Weak forcing aloft and the persistence of the upper ridge should
tend to limit convective development in an otherwise moderately to
strongly unstable airmass. Still, any thunderstorms which can
develop, perhaps aided by modest low-level warm advection this
evening/tonight, could pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031622
SWODY1
SPC AC 031620

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 031630Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...Northeast...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern
QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of
this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant
cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is
for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast,
with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The
leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has
already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development
where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued
destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly
continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy,
moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of
buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable
of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode)
and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear
modes).

This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so
the potential exists for additional development across NY this
afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late
afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to
those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts
possible with these storms as well.

...Northern Plains...
Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the
region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and
keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening.
This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to
3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a
modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the
central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the
westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z.
Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and
far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND
over time.

A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany
initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale
growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this
upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is
anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An
instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible.

...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest...
Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking
east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream
from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a
result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity
of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible.

A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the
ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther
east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air
advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate
to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in
place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail,
particularly with initial development. Storms should continue
throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk.

..Mosier/Karstens.. 07/03/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 031930
SWODY1
SPC AC 031929

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTH DAKOTA
AND MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the Northeast and
northern Plains today.

...20z Updates...
Minor adjustments were made to the 20z outlook to remove
probabilities behind convection in western New York. The Marginal
Risk was expanded westward to include portions of northwestern New
York where severe storms are crossing the international border from
Quebec. See MCD1549 for more information.

Otherwise, the outlook remains on track with no changes needed at
this time. See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/03/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025/

...Northeast...
Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined cyclone over northern
QC and a shortwave trough embedded within the southern periphery of
this cyclone progressing through the Lower Great Lakes. An attendant
cold front is in place just ahead of this shortwave. Expectation is
for this shortwave to continue quickly eastward into the Northeast,
with the cold front progressing eastward/southeastward as well. The
leading edge of the stronger large-scale forcing for ascent has
already reached ME and NH, contributing to thunderstorm development
where the preceding airmass has already destabilized. Continued
destabilization is anticipated, likely resulting in a nearly
continuous line of storms. In addition to moderate buoyancy,
moderate vertical shear is in place as well. This combination of
buoyancy and shear is expected to result in organized storms capable
of large hail (more probable during the early-stage cellular mode)
and damaging gusts (more probable later with later-stage linear
modes).

This ongoing development is well ahead of the primary cold front, so
the potential exists for additional development across NY this
afternoon, continuing into southern New England during the late
afternoon and evening. Environmental conditions will be similar to
those farther north and east, with large hail and damaging gusts
possible with these storms as well.

...Northern Plains...
Low-level moisture will continue to advect northwestward into the
region today, helping to offset some of the anticipated mixing and
keeping dewpoints in the upper 60s/70s later this afternoon/evening.
This favorable low-level moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse
rates will promote a very unstable airmass, with MLCAPE from 2000 to
3000 J/kg across ND this evening. Subtle ascent attendant to a
modest vorticity maximum rounding the northwestern periphery of the
central CONUS upper ridging will begin interacting with the
westernmost edge of this moist and unstable airmass around 21Z-00Z.
Initial cellular development is anticipated across northeast WY and
far southeast MT, before expanding northeastward into more of ND
over time.

A risk for very large hail and perhaps a tornado would accompany
initial supercells before storm outflow and mergers lead to upscale
growth into an eastward-moving cluster during the evening. Once this
upscale growth occurs, a quick northeastward progression is
anticipated across ND with some severe wind gusts possible. An
instance or two of gusts around 75 mph are possible.

...Southeastern ND/Northeast SD into the Upper Midwest...
Recent regional radar imagery shows an MCV tracking
east-northeastward over south-central ND. The airmass downstream
from southeast ND/northeast SD into southern MN and northern IA is destabilizing amid strong heating and ample low-level moisture. As a
result, there is a low-probability chance for thunderstorm redevelopment/reintensification early this afternoon in the vicinity
of the MCV. If this occurs, isolated damaging gusts are possible.

A more probable scenario is for this MCV to continue rounding the
ridge and provide the impetus for thunderstorm development farther
east across the Upper Midwest later this evening. Weak warm-air
advection could augment ascent across the region as well. Moderate
to strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer vertical shear will be in
place, supporting strong updrafts capable of large hail,
particularly with initial development. Storms should continue
throughout much of the night, with an isolated hail risk.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040059
SWODY1
SPC AC 040058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Thu Jul 03 2025

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of producing severe/damaging
winds and large hail are forecast across parts of the northern
Plains this evening into the early overnight hours.

...Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest...
Minimal changes have been made to severe probabilities across the
northern Plains. Even with large-scale upper ridging remaining
prominent over much of the central/northern Plains, ascent
associated with a weak mid-level shortwave trough over WY and
eastern MT should continue to encourage gradual convective
development this evening from northeast WY into ND. A surface lee
trough over eastern MT/western ND should also severe as a focus for thunderstorms based on recent visible satellite/radar trends. A
moderately to strongly unstable airmass is present across much of ND
this evening, along with around 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear. This
favorable environment should support supercells with a large to
isolated very large hail threat initially (up to 1.5-2.5 inches in
diameter). There still appears to be some potential for a small but
organized bowing cluster to develop later this evening as convection
spreads into central/eastern ND in the presence of a strengthening
low-level jet. If this upscale growth can occur, then severe winds
with peak gusts up to 65-75 mph appear possible.

On the eastern periphery of the upper ridge, a separate area of
convection has developed across northeast IA and vicinity. This
activity may continue to pose an isolated severe hail/wind threat in
the short term given an unstable airmass with moderate instability
and modest deep-layer shear present. The longevity of this
convection still remains somewhat questionable given warm
temperatures and weak forcing aloft. Additional, mainly elevated
thunderstorms may also develop later this evening/overnight in an
arcing band across parts of MN into WI in association with
increasing low-level warm/moist advection. These thunderstorms may
pose some severe hail/wind threat given ample MUCAPE and the
presence of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates. But, the
overall severe threat should tend to remain fairly isolated.

...Northeast...
Strong to severe thunderstorms across the Northeast have generally
moved offshore and/or weakened this evening. The potential for
organized severe thunderstorms has mostly diminished, but occasional
strong to damaging gusts may continue for another hour or two across
parts of far southeast PA into central/southern NJ, and separately
across far eastern MA and vicinity.

..Gleason.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 040557
SWODY1
SPC AC 040555

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with mainly a wind threat
are expected this afternoon and evening over parts of the
northern/central Plains toward the upper Mississippi Valley.
Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur today from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging initially over the Plains and Upper Midwest this
morning should gradually become more positively tilted as it shifts
eastward across the Great Lakes/Midwest and MS Valley through the
period. Multiple mid-level perturbations will round the upper ridge
today, with the most notable shortwave trough advancing eastward
from the central Rockies to the northern Plains this afternoon and
evening. A separate upper trough/low will move inland across the
Pacific Northwest towards the northern Rockies. At the surface, a
seasonably moist low-level airmass will reside to the south of a
front over the northern Plains, and east of lee troughing along much
of the length of the High Plains. The cold front is forecast to make
only slow east-southeastward progress across the northern
Plains/Upper Midwest through this evening.

...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest...
Daytime heating should encourage the development of moderate to
locally strong MLCAPE along/ahead of the front by early afternoon
across the northern Plains. Current expectations are for scattered
to numerous thunderstorms to develop along the length of the surface
boundary in the Dakotas as forcing for ascent associated with a
mid-level shortwave trough overspreads this region. While mid-level
flow and related deep-layer shear are not forecast to be overly
strong, they should still be sufficient for some updraft
organization as thunderstorm clusters merge and potentially develop
cold pools. Scattered severe/damaging winds appear probable across
parts of eastern ND into northern MN, and a Slight Risk has been
introduced for this area given the high concentration of
thunderstorms expected. This activity should spread into much of MN
through the evening before eventually weakening as it encounters a
less unstable airmass with eastward extent.

...Central Plains...
Compared to the northern Plains, generally weaker mid-level flow is
expected with southward extent across the central High Plains today.
Even so, marginally supportive deep-layer shear should aid in modest thunderstorm organization as convection develops along/near the
surface lee trough this afternoon. Scattered to numerous
thunderstorms will likely develop in a moderately unstable airmass,
with some consolidation/upscale growth possible into the early
evening. With steepened low-level lapse rates expected, occasional
strong to severe wind gusts may occur with this activity.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A strong mid-level jet is forecast to overspread parts of the
northern Great Basin and Rockies today as an upper trough/low
gradually moves inland over the Pacific Northwest. In the wake of
morning showers and thunderstorms, renewed convection is anticipated
this afternoon from parts of eastern OR into the northern Great
Basin/Rockies. Although low-level moisture will remain limited,
steepened low-level lapse rates with diurnal heating and enhanced
mid-level flow should support at least isolated severe wind
potential with any convection that develops and subsequently spreads east-northeastward through the evening. Some potential for marginal
supercells and occasional severe hail may also exist given moderate
to strong deep-layer expected from parts of eastern OR into ID and
western WY vicinity.

..Gleason/Supinie.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041237
SWODY1
SPC AC 041235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041300Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Upper Midwest into the central High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning indicate an upper ridge extends
northward from the southern Plains into the Upper Midwest. A notable disturbance is moving northeastward across the central Rockies this
morning and into the northern-central Plains by early evening. Lee
troughing extending southward from a weak low forecast to migrate
east from the Dakotas into MN, is expected to focus thunderstorm
activity this afternoon into the evening. Moist southerly low-level
flow will maintain a seasonably moist/unstable airmass across the
central into the north-central U.S. The latest model guidance shows
the strongest buoyancy developing across the Upper Midwest
(2000-3500 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst relatively limited deep-layer shear
(generally at or below 30-kt 0-6 km shear). Heating and appreciable
forcing for ascent will aid in scattered thunderstorms eventually
evolving by the late afternoon into the early evening near the
aforementioned wind shift and an eastward-moving cold front over
Dakotas/MN vicinity. Severe gusts appear to be the primary hazard,
but large hail may accompany the stronger storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
A belt of strong 40-50 kt 500-mb flow will move across northern NV
into ID through the base of a mid- to upper-level trough/low
situated over the Pacific Northwest. IR satellite imagery this
morning shows extensive cloudiness immediately ahead of a upper PV
anomaly from the NV/ID/OR border northward through much of ID and
eastern OR. In the wake of morning showers and a few thunderstorms,
additional storm activity is forecast to develop later this
afternoon. A locally greater risk for severe may become focused
within this broader region from southeast ID and northern UT into
far western WY, where 700-500 mb lapse rates are likely to be larger
[reference the 12 UTC raobs between Elko, NV (6.3 deg C/km) versus
Salt Lake City, UT (8.2 deg C/km)]. Isolated severe gusts and
perhaps marginally severe hail may occur with the stronger storms.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041632
SWODY1
SPC AC 041630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies.

...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the
Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances
along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently
moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the
most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues
northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface
observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68
deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+
deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong
heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper
Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and
contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy.

Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front,
as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment
large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of
this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation.
Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e.
around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and
western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this
region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep
low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result
in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists
farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN.
Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by
the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but
the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of
precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited
shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an
outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger
gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail
could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a
lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary
shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to
progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this
afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon.
Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt
at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few
stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk
may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger
heating and deeper mixing is anticipated.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/04/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 041944
SWODY1
SPC AC 041942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible later today into the
evening over the Upper Midwest. Severe gusts will be the primary
hazard. Isolated severe gusts and hail may also occur from eastern
Oregon into portions of the northern Great Basin/Rockies and the
Central High Plains.

...20z Update...
Minor adjustments were made to the Marginal Risk in Colorado to add
low end hail probabilities. Cells are expected to form and move off
the high terrain into the lower plains through the
afternoon/evening. A few cells may be capable of severe hail, given
sufficient CAPE and deep layer shear. For more information, see
MCD#1562.

The most favorable region for severe storms continues to be the
central High Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. Storms have
started to develop across this region and coverage is expected to
increase into the evening. Storms will have the potential for
damaging wind and large hail. See MCD#1560 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/04/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025/

...Central High Plains into the Upper MS Valley...
Recent satellite imagery shows expansive upper ridging from the
Lower MS Valley into western Ontario, with several disturbances
along the periphery of this ridge. The shortwave trough currently
moving through the central Rockies/central High Plains will be the
most impactful for today's severe potential as it continues
northeastward towards the very moist airmass in place across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest. Current surface
observations reveal a large reservoir of dewpoints greater than 68
deg F across the northern/central Plains, with higher dewpoints (70+
deg F) farther northeastward across the Upper MS Valley. Strong
heating is anticipated over the region, particularly the Upper
Midwest, destabilizing the airmass by the early afternoon and
contributing to strong to very strong buoyancy.

Low-level convergence along a southeastward-progressing cold front,
as well as along expected pre-frontal troughing, will augment
large-scale ascent provided by the approaching shortwave. All of
this lift will provide the impetus for convective initiation.
Initial development appears most likely in the early afternoon (i.e.
around 18Z) over northeast/eastern CO, NE Panhandle/western NE, and
western KS. Vertical shear and buoyancy will be modest in this
region, limiting storm strength and organization. Even so, steep
low-level lapse rates and moderately high cloud bases could result
in a few strong gusts. A relatively greater severe potential exists
farther north over the eastern Dakotas into northern/central MN.
Here, strong buoyancy (i.e. 2500-3500 J/kg of MLCAPE) is expected by
the late afternoon. Vertical shear will be relatively modest, but
the strong buoyancy should support robust updrafts capable of
precipitation loading and water-loaded downbursts. Given the limited
shear and progressive cold front, a quick transition to an
outflow-dominant, linear structure is anticipated. A few stronger
gusts are possible within this line as well. Isolated large hail
could occur with the strongest, early-stage cellular storms.

...Eastern Oregon into the Northern Great Basin/Rockies...
Extensive cloud cover has begun to clear from south to north as a
lead shortwave trough progresses through the region. Secondary
shortwave trough currently moving through northern CA is expected to
progress eastward/northeastward into the region later this
afternoon, fostering additional storm development this afternoon.
Buoyancy will be modest, but moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 40-45 kt
at 500 mb) will persist, supporting the potential for a few
stronger/more organized updrafts. A locally greater severe wind risk
may materialize across southern ID and northern UT where stronger
heating and deeper mixing is anticipated.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050100
SWODY1
SPC AC 050058

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Fri Jul 04 2025

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will
continue this evening over the Upper Midwest. Isolated severe gusts
and hail may occur over the central High Plains, with severe gusts
also possible from eastern Oregon into portions of the northern
Great Basin/Rockies.

...Upper Midwest...
Ahead of a midlevel shortwave trough tracking eastward from the
northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, a broken band of strong to
severe thunderstorms is ongoing across parts of northern MN. Ahead
of these storms, a warm/moist boundary layer (lower 70s dewpoints)
is yielding moderately unstable inflow, while 30-40 kt of mostly
front-parallel deep-layer shear (per recent VWP data) is promoting
some cold pool organization. As these storms continue
spreading/developing eastward this evening, damaging wind gusts will
remain possible prior to increasing nocturnal inhibition. Reference
Severe Thunderstorm Watch #486 for more information.

...Central High Plains...
A cluster of organized storms is evolving eastward across western KS
-- ahead of a lee trough/lee cyclone over the CO/KS border. The DDC
00Z sounding sampled a moderately unstable air mass and around 30 kt
of effective shear (with ample low-level hodograph curvature). This
environment should continue to support organized multicell clusters
and embedded supercell structures capable of producing severe wind
gusts and isolated large hail for the next few hours. For additional information, see MCD #1565.

..Weinman.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 050554
SWODY1
SPC AC 050552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains, with severe winds and large hail being the main
concerns. Isolated damaging gusts may also accompany the stronger
storms over the Upper Midwest.

...Northern High Plains...
A progressive midlevel wave and accompanying 40-50-kt jet streak
will overspread the northern High Plains from the late afternoon
into the evening/overnight hours. In the low-levels, a corridor of
middle/upper 50s dewpoints will extend westward into the northern
High Plains, beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates accompanying
the midlevel wave. As scattered thunderstorms spread eastward across central/eastern MT and northern WY into this corridor, 40-50 kt of
effective shear will favor intensification into semi-discrete
supercells and organized clusters. Established supercells will pose
a risk of large hail and locally severe wind gusts, while any
upscale-growing clusters will be capable of producing severe wind
gusts (some 75+ mph).

...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the higher
terrain during the afternoon, before spreading east-southeastward
into the evening/overnight hours. Steep deep-layer lapse rates and
moderate northwesterly flow aloft will favor several loosely
organized clusters capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051236
SWODY1
SPC AC 051234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR SOUTHEAST
MONTANA INTO FAR NORTHEAST WYOMING AND EXTREME NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe gusts
ranging from 60-85 mph and large to very large hail are the primary
hazards.

...Northern High Plains...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level trough over the
Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies. A belt of 40-50 kt 500-mb flow
will move east from ID across southern MT and northern WY through
the late evening. In the low levels, surface low pressure will
develop over central WY today to the south of a high centered over
SK/MB, aiding in maintaining an easterly component to low-level flow
across southern MT. The northern periphery of steep 700-500 mb
lapse rates will be atop a destabilizing boundary layer and will
contribute to moderate buoyancy. As large-scale ascent overspreads south-central MT by early to mid afternoon coincident with eroding
convective inhibition, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop. Ample deep-layer flow will favor a few
supercells with the early activity as storms mature/organize. An eastward-moving cluster is forecast to evolve (supported by recent
CAM guidance) during the early evening, with a potential swath of
severe gusts focused over southeast MT into adjacent parts of WY/SD.
As storms move farther east, less buoyancy will tend to limit the
severe risk with east extent into parts of the Dakotas.

...Central-Southern High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
the evening in the vicinity of a lee trough over the central High
Plains and farther south closer to the Raton Mesa. A relatively
moist and moderately unstable airmass (~1000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE) will
support vigorous updrafts mainly in the form of multicells and small
clusters. This activity will likely spread east-southeastward into
the evening hours. Severe gusts and perhaps large hail may accompany
the more intense storms.

...Upper Midwest into the central Plains...
A separate midlevel trough will move eastward across the Upper
Midwest, while a related cold front advances southeastward across
the Upper Midwest and Lower MO Valley during the day. Despite poor
midlevel lapse rates, rich boundary-layer moisture and a belt of
enhanced low/midlevel flow will support a few strong to severe
storms capable of damaging gusts along/ahead of the front.

...Carolina coast...
The low-level wind profile is forecast to gradually strengthen
concurrent with the approach of Tropical Storm Chantal (see the
National Hurricane Center for the latest details regarding Chantal's
forecast track). By the evening, hodographs begin to substantially
enlarge near the coast and the influx of richer low-level moisture
(mid 70s F surface dewpoints) are expected to infiltrate the
immediate coast. As such, a few transient supercells are possible
with an accompanying low risk for a tornado---mainly during the
overnight.

..Smith/Broyles.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051600
SWODY1
SPC AC 051558

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards.

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into
southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies,
spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of
southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and
spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass.
Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable
westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable
of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to
bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western
SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage.

...CO/KS...
Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading
to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse
rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the
afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for
strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a
cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward
into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this
scenario.

...SC/NC...
Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the
SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that
low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the
coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated
with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes.

..Hart/Jirak.. 07/05/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 051912
SWODY1
SPC AC 051910

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0210 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO
WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across portions of the northern
High Plains this afternoon through the evening. Severe wind gusts
and large hail are the primary hazards.

...20z Update...
The current D1 Convective Outlook remains on track with no updates
needed. See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/05/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1058 AM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025/

...Northern High Plains...
Morning water vapor loop shows a shortwave trough progressing into
southern ID. This feature will move across the northern Rockies,
spreading large scale forcing into much of MT this afternoon.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form over the mountains of
southwest MT and northern WY during the early/mid afternoon and
spread eastward into a progressively more moist/buoyant air mass.
Easterly low-level winds in the Plains, coupled with favorable
westerly flow aloft will promote supercell storm structures capable
of large hail. Most 12z CAM guidance suggests upscale growth to
bowing segments as storms track across eastern MT/WY into western
SD, with an increasing risk of significant wind damage.

...CO/KS...
Full sunshine is occurring this morning over northeast CO, leading
to afternoon temperatures in the 90s and steep low-level lapse
rates. High-based convection will form off the foothills during the
afternoon and move into this environment that will be favorable for
strong downdrafts. A consensus of morning model guidance suggests a
cluster of storms will evolve from this area, spreading eastward
into western KS this evening. Locally damaging wind gusts will be
possible. Have extended the SLGT risk southward to include this
scenario.

...SC/NC...
Tropical Storm Chantal will track northward today, approaching the
SC coast by early Sunday morning. Forecast soundings suggest that
low-level shear will steadily increase through the night along the
coast of eastern SC and southern NC. Outer rain bands associated
with the system will pose a MRGL risk of tornadoes.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060101
SWODY1
SPC AC 060100

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0800 PM CDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Valid 060100Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe wind gusts are expected across the northern High
Plains into tonight. Isolated large hail and severe winds gusts are
also possible over the southern High Plains.

...Northern High Plains...
Ahead of a progressive shortwave trough and associated 50-kt
midlevel jet (per VWP data), an upscale-growing cluster of
thunderstorms is advancing east-southeastward from southeast
MT/northeast WY into western SD -- with recent signs of a
rear-inflow jet. Ahead of this cluster, the UNR 00Z sounding sampled
sufficient surface-based instability and an elongated/straight
hodograph (around 40 kt of effective shear), for the maintenance of
this activity with east-southeastward extent. The primary concern
will be scattered severe wind gusts (some 75+ mph possible). See
Severe Thunderstorm Watches 487/488 and MCD 1572 for details.

...Southern High Plains...
Along the northeastern periphery of a midlevel ridge centered over
the Southwest, around 20-30 kt of midlevel northwesterly flow and
steep deep-layer lapse rates/strong buoyancy (see DDC 00Z sounding)
are supporting a few transient severe cells and clusters. Isolated
large hail and locally severe wind gusts are possible with the
stronger/more persistent storms.

...Midwest...
Scattered thunderstorms are spreading eastward along/ahead of a cold
front. While instability is marginal, enhanced low/midlevel flow
(sampled by VWP) may promote locally damaging gusts with any loosely
organized clusters that evolve.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Tropical Storm Chantal will continue tracking northward toward the
SC Coast. Locally enhanced low-level shear ahead of the storm may
promote a couple low-topped supercell structures in the outer rain
bands, with a low-end risk of a couple tornadoes.

..Weinman.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 060558
SWODY1
SPC AC 060556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
2+ inch diameter hail and 75+ mph wind gusts are possible.

...Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
Along the northern periphery of a large-scale ridge over the
Southwest, a subtle midlevel impulse and related 30-40-kt speed
maximum will overspread the northern/central High Plains during the afternoon/evening time frame. This will aid in the development of
scattered eastward-moving thunderstorms off the higher terrain of
southeastern WY and CO, while additional storms potentially
develop/spread southward along antecedent outflow farther east in
Nebraska. Ahead of this activity, steep deep-layer lapse rates will
yield moderate surface-based instability, which combined with an elongated/straight hodograph (30-40 kt of effective shear), will
favor a mix of semi-discrete supercells and organized clusters.
Large hail (some 2+ inches in diameter) and locally severe gusts
will be possible with the longer-lived storms. With time, some
upscale growth into one or more convective clusters will pose an
increasing risk of scattered severe gusts (some possibly 75+ mph).

Over the KS/OK border, thunderstorm development is expected along a
stalled surface boundary, where a strongly unstable air mass and
25-30 kt of effective shear will favor a few strong to severe storms
capable of producing large hail and severe downbursts.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
Preceding a broad midlevel trough over the Midwest, a belt of
30-40-kt midlevel west-southwesterly flow will overspread the Great
Lakes into the Ohio Valley through the afternoon. This will promote
a few loosely organized clusters along an eastward-moving cold
front, capable of producing damaging wind gusts.

...Maine...
Around 40-50 kt of westerly flow will overspread Maine, while a cold
front moves across the area during the afternoon. Given sufficient surface-based instability ahead of the front, a few organized
cells/clusters will be capable of producing severe wind gusts.

...Coastal Carolinas...
Modestly enhanced low-level flow/shear accompanying Tropical Storm
Chantal may favor a couple transient low-topped supercell structures
across eastern NC. While instability will be marginal, a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out with any rotating storms that evolve.

..Weinman/Supinie.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061254
SWODY1
SPC AC 061253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of
2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible.

..Central High Plains to the Southern Plains...
A mid-level impulse along the northern periphery of the Southwest
U.S. upper-level ridge will move east across the central High Plains
this afternoon. Steep mid-level lapse rates will contribute to
moderate/strong surface-based instability, and around 35-45 kts of
deep-layer shear will support supercell structures. Isolated
thunderstorm development is expected by mid-late afternoon as ascent
with the mid-level impulse overspreads the high Plains. These storms
will pose a risk for large to very large hail (2 inches or greater
in diameter) and strong gusts. Some eventual upscale growth is
expected as cold pool mergers occur, and damaging gusts, possibly
significant, becomes a greater concern.

Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
develop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of
2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerly
mid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusters
will be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening.

...Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley...
A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and
the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies
will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest
large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse,
combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will
support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing
isolated severe wind gusts.

...Maine...
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in
association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability
should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly
mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient
supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the
primary severe hazard.

...Eastern North Carolina Vicinity...
Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center
to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving
north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for
details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells
may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level
shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of
the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple
tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop
within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061610
SWODY1
SPC AC 061609

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and
significant severe gusts are possible.

...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS...
Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed
max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday,
with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon
storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few
supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build
eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk
of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western
NE/KS.

...Central Plains to IN/MI...
A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL
into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of
strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level
lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary
later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for
some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures
capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak
steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with
occasional intense downdrafts.

...NC...
TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large
shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating,
and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong.
Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest
updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation
center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any
more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over
eastern NC.

..Hart/Moore.. 07/06/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 061944
SWODY1
SPC AC 061942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail are expected along the central High Plains. Large hail and
significant severe gusts are possible.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk was expanded into portions of central Nebraska
with this update. Storms along a decaying MCS/outflow boundary have
shown intensification. The air mass ahead of this southward moving
boundary remains favorably unstable, though shear for organization
does decrease with eastward extent. See MCD#1579 for more
information.

The Slight Risk across the central Plains continues on track with
thunderstorms developing across the high terrain in Colorado.
Initial supercells with pose a risk for large hail before the
damaging wind risk increases this afternoon/evening. See MCD#1578
and Watch #489 for more information.

..Thornton.. 07/06/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025/

...Eastern WY/CO and western NE/KS...
Subtle mid-level forcing will overspread eastern WY/CO this
afternoon as a weak shortwave trough and associated mid-level speed
max approach. Surface dewpoints are a little higher than yesterday,
with greater CAPE aiding in the development of scattered afternoon
storms over the foothills and along the DCVZ. Very steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30kt+ of deep layer shear will promote a few
supercell structures capable of large hail. As the storms build
eastward, congealing updrafts will likely result in a greater risk
of damaging winds through the evening over northeast CO and western
NE/KS.

...Central Plains to IN/MI...
A weak surface boundary extends from south-central KS across MO/IL
into parts of IN/Lower MI. Morning visible imagery shows pockets of
strong heating to the south of the boundary, where steep low-level
lapse rates and ample CAPE will be present. Scattered thunderstorms
are expected to develop along the entire length of the boundary
later today. Winds aloft are sufficiently strong over MI/IN for
some convective organization, with occasional bowing structures
capable of damaging wind gusts. From IN southwestward, weak
steering flow will result in slow-moving multicell storms with
occasional intense downdrafts.

...NC...
TD Chantal is moving slowly northward into central NC. A large
shield of cloud cover surrounding the center is limiting heating,
and low-level shear profiles have not been particularly strong.
Nevertheless, 12z CAM solutions generally agree that the strongest
updrafts today will be near and just northeast of the circulation
center. A tornado or two is possible this these storms, and in any
more isolated convection that might form in the outer bands over
eastern NC.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070057
SWODY1
SPC AC 070056

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0756 PM CDT Sun Jul 06 2025

Valid 070100Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large
hail will continue tonight across the Plains, especially across
eastern Colorado and western parts of Nebraska and Kansas into
Oklahoma.

...Discussion...
Primary severe risk for the remainder of the night will be focused
across the Great Plains, and the central High Plains in particular.
Severe potential will continue to nocturnally wane across the
Midwest, Maine, and across North Carolina in association with
Tropical Depression Chantal.

This evening, scattered severe storms including some supercells will
persist in areas spanning near the Black Hills southward into the
Nebraska Panhandle, eastern Colorado, and western Kansas. One or
more semi-organized generally southeastward-moving clusters may
eventually evolve within/across the instability axis across far
eastern Colorado/western Kansas with an increased severe-wind
potential aside from a continued episodic large hail risk. This
scenario will be supported by a modestly increasing southerly
low-level jet. Damaging winds and some hail will also continue to be
a concern across northern Oklahoma with a couple of ongoing
clusters, at least for a few hours this evening.

..Guyer.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 070552
SWODY1
SPC AC 070550

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1250 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF WESTERN/CENTRAL NEBRASKA...SOUTH-CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...NORTHEAST COLORADO...AND FAR NORTHWEST KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Upper Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A low-amplitude midlevel trough and related belt of 40-50-kt
midlevel westerlies will track eastward across the northern Plains
during the day. At the same time, a cold front extending southward
from the northern Plains into the central High Plains will move
eastward during the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected at the
intersection of the cold front and a lee surface trough over the
central High Plains during the afternoon -- aided by peripheral
large-scale ascent accompanying the midlevel trough. Ahead of the
evolving storms, a corridor of steep midlevel lapse rates/strong
surface-based buoyancy and 40-50 kt of effective shear will promote
supercells and organized clusters. Large to very large hail and
severe wind gusts will be possible with the initial storms. Current
indications are that this activity will organize into one or more
organized clusters, capable of producing swaths of severe wind (some
75+ mph). Given steep deep-layer lapse rates, lingering surface
boundaries, and sufficient hodograph curvature, a couple tornadoes
will also be possible.

Farther north, stronger forcing for ascent accompanying the midlevel
trough will support scattered thunderstorm development along the
front from the Dakotas into the Upper MS Valley during the
afternoon. Around 40 kt of front-orthogonal deep-layer shear will
favor a mix of organized clusters and supercells, capable of
producing large hail and severe wind gusts. With time, these storms
may grow upscale into an east-southeastward-moving MCS, with an
increasing severe-wind risk.

...Upper OH River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected along/ahead of a
slow-moving cold front extending from the Northeast into the Lower
Great Lakes/Upper OH River Valley during the afternoon. Around 30 kt
of effective shear (stronger over New England) amid a diurnally
destabilizing boundary layer will allow for loosely organized
multicell clusters capable of producing wind damage.

..Weinman/Guyer.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071229
SWODY1
SPC AC 071228

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0728 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071300Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio River Valley, and the Northeast.

...Central High Plains into the northern Plains...
A shortwave trough within westerly mid-level flow will move
east/southeast across the central/northern Plains through tonight,
along the periphery of a meridionally-expanding upper-level ridge.
Steep mid-level lapse rates will expand east across the central
Plains, above a moist boundary layer (generally 60s F dew points)
and contributing to strong instability this afternoon with MLCAPE at
or above 2500 J/kg. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this
afternoon across the higher terrain over the central High Plains,
and move east through this evening. Initial supercells will be
capable of large to very large hail, though transitioning into one
or more MCSs with an increase in damaging wind potential, including
significant severe gusts.

Thunderstorms are also expected to develop/re-intensify, across
central/eastern SD along a surface trough, with upscale growth into
an MCS capable of severe winds as it moves east, potentially into
southwest MN this evening before weakening. Given expectations for
greater coverage based on latest hi-res guidance, the Level
3/Enhanced Risk has been extended north across eastern SD/southwest
MN based on higher (30%) severe wind probabilities.

...Upper Ohio River Valley, Lower Great Lakes, and the Northeast...
A cold Front will move east today, and inpinge upon a moist (PW at
or above 1.75 in) and moderately unstable air mass, with afternoon
MLCAPE ranging from near 1000 J/kg across ME to 1500-2000 J/kg over
the upper OH Valley. The area will located along the southern fringe
of modest southwest mid-level flow, sufficient for some degree of
updraft organization. Scattered multicell/clusters of thunderstorms
developing this afternoon will pose a risk for strong/damaging gusts
with isolated stronger storms.

...Lower Ohio Valley into Ozarks...
Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon developing in the vicinity of
a southward-advancing cold front will have the potential for
isolated wet microbursts within a moist (PW 1.75 to over 2 inches)
air mass. Weak cloud-bearing layer shear should limit organization,
but overall storm coverage should be sufficient for isolated
damaging gusts.

..Bunting/Marsh.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 071626
SWODY1
SPC AC 071624

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO PARTS OF NEBRASKA AND SOUTH
DAKOTA....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast.

...SD/NE/KS/CO...
A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and
evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD.
Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification
and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and
western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and
damaging winds.

Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread
eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday)
and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also
pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening.

It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal
during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and
eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by
that time is uncertain.

...OH to ME...
A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across
parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong
daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with
sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind
gusts.

..Hart/Karstens.. 07/07/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS
OF NORTHEAST COLORADO INTO NEBRASKA AND SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms are likely across the central into northern
Plains. Severe wind gusts and large hail are the main threats.
Isolated damaging winds are also possible across parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee River Valleys, and the Northeast.

...20z Update Northern Plains...
The prior forecast remains largely on track this afternoon with only
minor adjustments. The northern portions of the Level 3 ENH area
were trimmed for trends with ongoing convection. Surging outflow has
cooled surface temperatures into the low 70s across northeastern SD
and west-central MN. As the outflow continues to move south, this
should focus storm development and severe potential along the
boundary. Supercells and organized clusters are still expected
across parts of eastern SD into northern NE this afternoon/evening.
Hail and damaging gusts are likely, along with an isolated tornado
or two.

Upscale growth into an organized cluster/MCS is likely this evening.
Damaging wind gusts will be the primary risk later this evening and
into the overnight hours. While confidence in the eastern extent of
the severe risk is low, recent CAM guidance suggests some damaging
wind threat may extended farther east into portions of central IA.
Have adjusted the level 1 MRGL for this potential.

...Central High Plains...
Storm initiation is underway within a broad upslope flow regime
across western SD and eastern WY/CO. Scattered storms, including a
few supercells appear likely. Moderate buoyancy/steep mid-level
lapse rates and 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear will favor a risk for
damaging wind gusts and hail. Consolidation into one or more
clusters is likely tonight, with a continued threat for damaging
winds. See MCD#1592 for additional short-term info.

...OH Valley/Northeast...
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are ongoing from the central US
to the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Amid weak vertical shear
pulse multi-cell storms with occasional damaging gusts will remain
likely into this evening. The severe risk will be largely diurnal
with a decreasing risk after dark. Have adjusted the severe risk for
current frontal/storm position slightly farther east.

..Lyons.. 07/07/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025/

...SD/NE/KS/CO...
A complex evolution of convection is expected this afternoon and
evening across the central Plains. One line/cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to develop from the showers across SD.
Continued daytime heating will eventually lead to intensification
and organization of storms building southeastward into NE and
western IA. These storms will pose a risk of large hail and
damaging winds.

Farther southwest, storms are expected to develop and spread
eastward across southeast WY and northeast CO (similar to yesterday)
and eventually track into western NE/KS. These storms will also
pose risk of damaging winds and hail through the early evening.

It appears likely that these two convective regimes will congeal
during the evening, with more of a southward push into KS and
eventually northern OK late tonight, although the severe risk by
that time is uncertain.

...OH to ME...
A warm/humid air mass is present today from OH northeastward across
parts of NY/PA and northern New England. Widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected along this entire corridor. Strong
daytime heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, with
sufficient mid-level westerly flow to aid in gusty/damaging wind
gusts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080043
SWODY1
SPC AC 080042

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0742 PM CDT Mon Jul 07 2025

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms will be concentrated across portions
of the central and northern Plains. Severe wind and large hail are
the main threats.

...01z Update...

Mid-level short-wave trough is progressing across the upper Red
River Valley, and 500mb flow is gradually strengthening across the northern/central Plains. Associated synoptic front currently extends
from eastern ND-central SD-near CYS. This boundary will advance
slowly into northern MN, but is not expected to move appreciably
across the central High Plains. Convection has largely concentrated
along/near the wind shift, but large convective-free gaps are noted,
especially over central NE. Even so, there is some expectation for
at least isolated robust convection to develop over central NE,
partially due to some influence in outflow aiding low-level
convergence near the frontal zone. Latest radar data suggests a
larger cluster of strong-severe thunderstorms near the SD/NE/IA
border will continue to propagate south-southeast, but LLJ is not
particularly strong into this complex. Higher-based convection is
also concentrated over southwest NE into northwest KS. This activity
will also propagate southeast with an attendant risk for wind/hail.
Overall, low-level convergence is seasonally weak and this will
likely result in scattered pockets of semi-organized convection much
of the evening.

..Darrow.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 080544
SWODY1
SPC AC 080543

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1243 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid Atlantic.
More isolated activity is expected across portions of the Plains
into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Middle Atlantic...

Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough over the upper MS Valley, shifting east in line with latest
model guidance. This feature is forecast to advance into the central
Great Lakes region by the end of the period. As the short wave
advances east, a corridor of higher PW (currently extending from AR
into the upper OH Valley) will be shunted downstream as a
low-amplitude disturbance ejects toward the Mid Atlantic. While some suppression of the height field can be expected late, it appears the
weak disturbance should be the primary mechanism for encouraging
somewhat stronger southwesterly flow which would extend as far south
as central VA. Even so, 0-6km bulk shear is only expected to be on
the order of 20-25kt, but favorably oriented for clusters and short
line segments. Forecast soundings exhibit poor lapse rates, but
high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters. Convective temperatures will
be breached by 17-18z as readings climb into the mid 80s, and
scattered thunderstorms should readily develop from central PA into
central VA. This activity will then propagate toward the Mid
Atlantic Coast with an attendant risk for damaging winds.

...Plains/Middle Atlantic...

Upper ridge is forecast to hold across the southwestern U.S. through
the day1 period; although, northwesterly flow is expected to
increase a bit along the eastern periphery of this feature over the
High Plains. As a result, high-level diffluent flow will be noted
across the southern Plains into southern MO. At the surface,
low-level boundaries/convergence will prove weak, and left-over
convective debris will likely prove influential in late-afternoon
development. Early this morning, an MCS was propagating south across
eastern NE/southwest IA. This complex will likely advance into
southeast KS/southwest MO by sunrise. It's not entirely clear how
organized this cluster will be at the start of the period, but
convective outflow will likely contribute to additional development
later in the day. Strong boundary-layer heating will also aid
isolated thunderstorm development across the High Plains of eastern
WY/CO/NM. This activity will spread southeast during the evening
with a risk for hail/wind.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081244
SWODY1
SPC AC 081243

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic States...
A relatively active thunderstorm day is expected this afternoon into
evening regionally. In association with semi-amplified westerlies
centered over the Midwest/Great Lakes, a weak mid-level disturbance
or two will likely influence the region later today. This will be in conjunction with a moist airmass, with moderately strong buoyancy
developing by late morning given ample insolation east of the
Appalachians. A modest enhancement to the westerlies aloft may
contribute to as much as 25 kt effective shear, supportive of
sustained clusters and linear segments. Steep low-level lapse rates
and high-water content suggests damaging downbursts are likely,
especially with any organized clusters this afternoon through around mid-evening. This most favored corridor for downbursts/tree damage
is expected to focus east of the Blue Ridge across eastern portions
of Virginia/Maryland into southeast Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

...Plains to Middle Mississippi Valley...
Severe storms will again be possible today on the eastern periphery
of the Southwest/Four Corners-centered upper ridge. Several
low-amplitude disturbances will pivot the ridge coincident with
modestly enhanced north-northwesterly flow aloft across the High
Plains, while a decayed MCS and residual MCV/outflow will influence
renewed diurnal deep convective development across the Ozarks and
middle Mississippi Valley later today. Sporadic bouts of damaging
winds can be expected, with large hail potential more focused across
the High Plains, and in particular the north-central High Plains
where a Slight Risk could be warranted pending
guidance/observational trends later this morning.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081627
SWODY1
SPC AC 081625

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary
layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z
soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated
vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000
J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for
ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New
England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate
lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel
lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level
lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will
drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the
resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or
short line segments.

...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening...
A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving
southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a
remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow,
clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel
cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in
advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger
surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the
outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual
height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at
least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening
across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow
aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based
supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the
potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background
height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the
broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe
outflow winds and some hail.

...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross
northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms
will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme
northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection).
Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some
enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage
and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening.

..Thompson/Lyons.. 07/08/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 081951
SWODY1
SPC AC 081950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 082000Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across the Mid-Atlantic
states. More isolated severe storms are expected across portions of
the Plains into the Mid Mississippi Valley.

...20Z Update...
Minor changes were made to the outlook based on current
observations. Otherwise, the previous forecast reasoning remains
valid.

..Wendt.. 07/08/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening...
Strong surface heating is underway within a very moist boundary
layer consisting of generally mid 70s dewpoints. Regional 12z
soundings, modified for afternoon temperatures and associated
vertical mixing, suggest the potential for MLCAPE near or above 2000
J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Larger-scale forcing for
ascent will be modest with a slightly enhanced (~25 kt) belt of west-southwesterly midlevel flow from the OH Valley to southern New
England, though the primary focus for scattered thunderstorm
development is expected to be a surface trough from the immediate
lee of the Blue Ridge into MA by mid afternoon. Though midlevel
lapse rates will not be particularly steep, steepening low-level
lapse rates with hot afternoon temperatures in the low-mid 90s will
drive strong downdraft potential (per DCAPE near 1000 J/kg) and the
resultant threat for wind damage with multicell clusters and/or
short line segments.

...Central High Plains to the Ozarks this afternoon/evening...
A weakening outflow boundary from overnight convection is moving
southeastward into southeast MO, and southward into OK, while a
remnant MCV moves eastward over northern MO. South of the outflow,
clouds and ongoing convection from eastern OK to the MO Bootheel
cast uncertainty on the degree of destabilization this afternoon in
advance of this portion of the outflow. Farther west, stronger
surface heating/destabilization is expected along and south of the
outflow into OK, but forcing for ascent is in question with gradual
height rises expected aloft. A weak lee trough could help focus at
least isolated thunderstorm development this afternoon/evening
across the central High Plains, where northwesterly flow
aloft/hodograph length could be sufficient for a high-based
supercell or two. However, a specific focus for initiation and the
potential for upscale growth are both uncertain given the background
height rises and little forcing for ascent. Thus, will maintain the
broad MRGL area for a low probability/conditional threat for severe
outflow winds and some hail.

...Northeast WI/Upper MI this afternoon/evening...
A midlevel shortwave trough and weak surface reflection will cross
northern WI and western Upper MI this afternoon, and a few storms
will be possible by mid afternoon from central Upper MI into extreme
northeast WI (in the wake of weak morning convection).
Thermodynamic recovery from weak morning convection and some
enhancement to westerly deep-layer shear suggests the potential for semi-organized storms/clusters and a low-end threat for wind damage
and hail for a few hours later this afternoon/evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090054
SWODY1
SPC AC 090052

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Tue Jul 08 2025

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms should continue this evening
across parts of the central/southern Plains and Mid-Atlantic into
southern New England.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southern New England...
Bands of loosely organized convection will continue to spread
eastward across the DelMarVa Peninsula and southeast VA/northeast NC
vicinity over the next couple of hours this evening. A sufficiently
moist and unstable airmass should support occasional severe/damaging
winds with this activity until it moves offshore or eventually
weakens with the loss of daytime heating.

...Central/Southern Plains...
Widely spaced strong to severe thunderstorms are present this
evening across the central/southern Plains, generally along/south of
a convectively reinforced boundary extending across KS into the
Ozarks. Large-scale forcing across these regions will tend to remain
weak on the northeast periphery of the upper ridge centered over the
Southwest. But, multiple low-amplitude mid-level perturbations
should aid in thunderstorm maintenance for several more hours this
evening given the presence of moderate to strong instability and
marginally sufficient deep-layer shear for updraft organization.
Isolated severe winds and hail may occur with loosely organized
multicells and occasional supercells. But, the overall severe threat
still appears too unfocused/widely spaced to include greater severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 090601
SWODY1
SPC AC 090600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0100 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail
and severe gusts are also possible across parts of the
northern/central Plains beginning late this afternoon and continuing
into the evening.

...Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the
Great Lakes/OH Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced southwesterly
mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic through this
evening, diminishing with southward extent in the Southeast.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again expected to
develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge
Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the coast. The presence
of rich low-level moisture will compensate for poor lapse rates
aloft to support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower elevations. A few loosely organized clusters may eventually develop
from parts of VA towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing
to somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions.
Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete
convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the
primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially
develop. Generally minor adjustments have been made to the ongoing Marginal/Slight Risk areas to account for latest guidance trends.

...Northern/Central Plains...
Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an
upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues
to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by
late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. Ample low-level
moisture ahead of this trough will gradually build beneath a stout
EML. A corridor of strong to very strong instability will likely
exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central
ND into NE, aided by daytime heating and steep lapse rates aloft.
Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the proximity
of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will support
adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially, with
associated threat for large to isolated very large hail.
Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering
east-southeastward across the Dakotas and perhaps parts of NE, with
a risk for scattered severe gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph on
an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment forecast.

While confidence is somewhat lower regarding convective coverage
with southward extent across the central Plains (into KS and
vicinity), a conditionally favorable environment for at least
isolated severe convection will be in place. Have therefore expanded
the Marginal Risk southward to account for this potential.

...Interior Northwest/Northern Rockies...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward across northern CA
into the northwest Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this favorable flow regime amid steepened
low-level lapse rates through daytime heating, scattered
thunderstorms should foster strong to isolated severe gusts from
parts of eastern OR into MT.

...Lower Michigan into Northwest Ohio...
Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds appear
possible this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
OH as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak upper trough,
supported by a modest combination of instability and deep-layer
shear.

..Gleason/Weinman.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091254
SWODY1
SPC AC 091253

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0753 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091300Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic. Large hail
and severe wind gusts are also possible across parts of the
northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
A weak mid-level trough will move slowly eastward today across the
Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. A belt of modestly enhanced
southwesterly mid-level flow will remain over the Mid-Atlantic
through this evening, diminishing with southward extent in the
Southeast. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are once again
expected to develop this afternoon over the southern Appalachians
and Blue Ridge Mountains, and then spread eastward towards the
coast. Steepening low-level lapse rates and rich low-level moisture
will support MLCAPE generally around 1500-3000 J/kg across lower
elevations.

Loosely organized clusters may eventually develop from parts of
Virginia towards the DelMarVa Peninsula and vicinity owing to
somewhat more favorable deep-layer shear across these regions.
Isolated hail may occur initially with the more cellular/discrete
convection, before scattered severe/damaging winds becomes the
primary risk with eastward extent as multiple clusters potentially
develop.

...Northern/central Plains...
Downstream of a low-amplitude mid-level ridge emanating from an
upper-level anticyclone over the Southwest, most guidance continues
to suggest that isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form by
late this afternoon along a weak surface trough. However, it should
be noted that guidance continues to vary considerably in the
short-term spatial details, likely owing to owing to degree of
elevated mixed layer/warmth aloft. Recent HRRR (and RRFS) runs are
somewhat uncharacteristically more aggressive (given the capping and
modest forcing regime etc.) in terms of overall degree of deep
convective development and the southward extent thereof, as compared
to various global guidance.

A corridor of strong to very strong instability will exist by late afternoon/early evening from parts of western/central Dakotas to
northern Nebraska, aided by daytime heating and very steep lapse
rates. Despite modest mid-level west-northwesterlies owing to the
proximity of the upper ridge, stronger upper-level westerlies will
support adequate deep-layer shear for a few supercells initially,
with associated threat for large to isolated very large hail.
Outflow-dominated downdrafts should foster clustering
east-southeastward across the Dakotas and parts of Nebraska, with a
risk for severe-caliber wind gusts, some of which could be 75+ mph
on an isolated basis given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment forecast. Risk-magnitude uncertainty increases southward
across Kansas, but at least isolated severe storms may occur across western/central/northern parts of Kansas, and possibly into northern
Oklahoma.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and northern Great Basin...
Downstream of a shortwave trough moving eastward toward the northern
Great Basin, an elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level
flow will exist across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Within this
favorable flow regime amid steepened low-level lapse rates through
daytime heating, scattered thunderstorms should foster strong to
isolated severe wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into
Idaho/Montana and possibly northern Utah.

...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio...
Isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds may occur
this afternoon across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. This will be as scattered thunderstorms develop beneath a weak
upper trough, supported by a modest combination of instability and
deep-layer shear.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 091633
SWODY1
SPC AC 091631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
SD AND FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NE AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MT...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts
of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening.
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as
over central Montana.

...Northern/Central Plains...
A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the
central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s
dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in
southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the
westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will
support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this
area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther
west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a
combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud
bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in
outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the
more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and
moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this
fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective
clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph.
Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind
coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and
southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO
River in NE/IA.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and
recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40
kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is
for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH
Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass
preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to
the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level
moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong
daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent
mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly
underway.

Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented
by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this
afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains.
This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail.
These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some
increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and
greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across
northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be
farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this
displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear
to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest
concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast
PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into
central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with
moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the
primary risk within this more linear activity.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin...
A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An
elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from
the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV)
northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered
thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow
regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled
with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe
wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and
possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over
south-central MT.

...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath
a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will
support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds
with the strongest updrafts.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/09/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 092001
SWODY1
SPC AC 091959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 092000Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA INTO FAR NORTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC...SOUTH-CENTRAL MONTANA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe wind gusts and isolated large hail are possible across parts
of the northern/central Plains late this afternoon into evening.
Scattered damaging winds are possible this afternoon to early
evening from parts of the Carolinas to the Mid-Atlantic as well as
over central Montana.

...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the ongoing forecast. There remains
potential for another focused corridor of severe wind gusts farther
south into central Nebraska this evening. The low-level jet will be
focused in this area. Coverage/organization of storms moving out of
the Nebraska Panhandle remains a question. Confidence is still too
low for a southward expansion of severe wind probabilities.

..Wendt.. 07/09/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025/

...Northern/Central Plains...
A reservoir of ample low-level moisture currently exists from the
central Plains back northwestward into eastern MT, with upper 60s
dewpoints in NE and mid 60s dewpoints as far northwest as DIK in
southwest ND. Steep mid-level lapse rates extend over the
westernmost portions of this greater low-level moisture, which will
support the development of strong to very strong buoyancy later this
afternoon. Thunderstorms are not expected to develop within this
area of strong buoyancy, but instead will likely initiate farther
west (from southeast MT/northeast WY into the NE Panhandle) amid a
combination of weak lee troughing and subtle ascent attendant to
low-amplitude shortwave trough. Here, modest buoyancy, high cloud
bases, and moderate westerly flow aloft will result in
outflow-dominant storm structures which will quickly move into the
more buoyant airmass downstream. Given the ample buoyancy and
moderate vertical shear, updrafts should persist along this
fast-moving outflow, resulting in more progressive convective
clusters. Severe gusts will be possible as these clusters move eastward/southeastward, with some potential for gusts over 75 mph.
Recent guidance has provided more confidence in higher severe wind
coverage, meriting the introduction of 30% wind probabilities and
southeastward expansion of the 15% wind probabilities past the MO
River in NE/IA.

...Mid-Atlantic/Southeast States...
Recent satellite imagery shows a shortwave trough extending from
southern Ontario through the Lower OH Valley. Morning soundings and
recent mesoanalysis both show moderate mid-level flow (i.e. 30 to 40
kt at 500 mb) throughout the base of this shortwave. Expectation is
for this wave to continue eastward/northeastward through the OH
Valley, reaching the Mid-Atlantic by late afternoon. The airmass
preceding this wave across the Mid-Atlantic is very moist, with
dewpoints ranging from the upper 60s/low 70s from eastern PA/NJ to
the mid 70s across the eastern Carolina. This ample low-level
moisture will result in quick airmass destabilization amid strong
daytime heating. Limited remaining convective inhibition on recent
mesoanalysis indicates this destabilization is already firmly
underway.

Large-scale lift attendant to the approaching shortwave (augmented
by orographic ascent) coupled with airmass destabilization will
result in scattered to numerous thunderstorms development this
afternoon over the southern Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains.
This initial, more cellular development could produce isolated hail.
These storms should then spread eastward towards the coast with some
increasing coverage possible. The strongest mid-level flow (and
greatest vertical shear) this afternoon will extend from WV across
northern VA/southern PA and NJ. The greatest buoyancy will be
farther south, across the Carolinas and GA. Even with this
displacement, there is enough overlap between the buoyancy and shear
to support loosely organized strong to severe storms. The highest
concentration of severe storms is anticipated from southeast
PA/southern NJ southward across central VA and the Delmarva into
central NC. In this region, numerous thunderstorms coupled with
moderate shear should result in several cold-pool-dominated, forward-propagating convective clusters. Damaging gusts will be the
primary risk within this more linear activity.

...Northern Intermountain West/Rockies and Northern Great Basin...
A shortwave trough is currently moving through northern CA. An
elongated belt of enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow exists from
the base of this shortwave (over northern CA/northwest NV)
northeastward across the northern Great Basin/Rockies. Scattered
thunderstorm development is anticipated within this favorable flow
regime. Daytime heating and steepened low-level lapse rates coupled
with this enhanced mid-level flow should support a strong to severe
wind gusts from parts of eastern Oregon into Idaho/Montana and
possibly northern Utah. Highest coverage is expected over
south-central MT.

...Lower Michigan to northwest Ohio...
Scattered thunderstorms are forecast develop this afternoon beneath
a weak upper trough across parts of Lower Michigan and northwest
Ohio. A modest combination of instability and deep-layer shear will
support isolated/marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds
with the strongest updrafts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100049
SWODY1
SPC AC 100048

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0748 PM CDT Wed Jul 09 2025

Valid 100100Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NEBRASKA...SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong thunderstorm development, perhaps including an
organizing cluster or two, remains possible tonight and could pose a
risk for severe wind and hail across the northern Great Plains/Mid
Missouri Valley vicinity.

...01Z Update...

...Northern Great Plains/Mid Missouri Valley...
Scattered, generally high-based strong thunderstorm development,
which initiated within lee surface troughing across the northern
high plains, has slowly propagated into the central Dakotas and
Nebraska, in the presence of at least modestly sheared, but weak
(10-20 kt) westerly deep-layer mean flow. Seasonably moist
boundary-layer air (including 70+ F surface dew points) along a
baroclinic zone across the central into eastern Dakotas and Nebraska
is contributing to a corridor of moderate to strong potential
instability, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates.
However, the thermodynamic profiles include very warm elevated
mixed-layer air (including 700 mb temperatures of +12 to 14 C),
which will contribute to increasingly substantive inhibition with
the onset of boundary-layer cooling.

It remains unclear how long forcing for ascent will be sufficient to
maintain ongoing convective development this evening, but a
nocturnally strengthening low-level jet, aided by boundary-layer
decoupling, is forecast across western Kansas toward the mid
Missouri Valley through 03-06Z. This would seem to offer better
potential for the maintenance and perhaps intensification of the
cluster now propagating south/southeast of Valentine NE. Otherwise,
warm advection aided by the low-level jet could focus renewed
thunderstorm initiation and upscale growth on the eastern periphery
of the more strongly capping elevated mixed-layer air, across the
southeastern South Dakota/eastern Nebraska/western Iowa vicinity
later tonight.

..Kerr.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 100555
SWODY1
SPC AC 100553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
KANSAS...CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA AND PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for severe hail, damaging wind
gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this
afternoon into tonight across parts of the central Great Plains into
mid Missouri Valley.

...Discussion...
Stronger westerlies will remain confined to the higher latitudes
through this period, with one significant short wave perturbation
forecast to accelerate from eastern portions of the Canadian
Northwest Territories through areas northeast of Hudson Bay,
accompanied by a deepening surface cyclone. It appears that the
leading edge of cooler, drier air in the wake of this cyclone will
advance south of the international border into the northern Rockies
and through adjacent portions of the northern U.S. Great Plains,
trailed by another notable mid-level short wave impulse, which
models indicate will dig near/east of the Canadian through northern
U.S. Rockies. As this occurs, mid-level troughing within weaker
flow in lower latitudes is forecast to slowly dig from the northern
Great Basin toward the central Great Plains, suppressing stronger
ridging in the subtropical to southern mid-latitudes, initially
centered over the Southwest.

This will be preceded by a couple of convectively generated or
augmented perturbations migrating across the mid Missouri Valley and
Upper Midwest, a modest mid-level trough slowly turning
east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes vicinity, and several weak perturbations progressing through broad, weak cyclonic flow across
the Southeast through southern Atlantic Seaboard.

...Great Plains into Midwest...
Uncertainties remain concerning potential convective evolution
through this period. Models suggest that surface boundaries may
remain relatively diffuse, but residual seasonably moist
boundary-layer air may become characterized by sizable CAPE with
daytime heating, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates,
including warm elevated mixed layer air.

There does appear at least a somewhat consistent signal within
various convection allowing guidance that an MCV associated with
ongoing convection across parts of the middle Missouri Valley could
provide a focus for strong thunderstorm development later today
across parts of the Upper Midwest. Otherwise, in advance of the
digging upstream troughing, models indicate that a modest belt of
southwesterly low-level flow (including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb
layer) will generally persist through the day east of the lee
surface trough, from the Texas Panhandle/South Plains into the
middle Missouri Valley. It appears that this will coincide with a
corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the
higher plains, where thunderstorm activity initiating during the
late afternoon may pose a risk for damaging wind gusts.

Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska
into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height,
might become at least marginally conducive to a couple of
supercells, in the presence of sizable CAPE, before forcing for
ascent associated with the approaching mid-level trough tends to
support upscale growing clusters this evening.

...Upper Ohio Valley into portions of New England...
Near the southern periphery of the mid-level troughing shifting east
or east-northeast of the lower Great Lakes region, models indicate
that scattered thunderstorm development is probable during peak
afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE (1000-2000+
J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of 20-30 kt
westerly mid-level flow. This environment may become conducive to
small hail and potentially damaging wind gusts, before activity
weakens this evening.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
Aided by forcing for ascent associated with the mid-level
perturbations, in the presence of weak mid-level inhibition, one or
two upscale growing clusters of storms may overspread the southern
Atlantic Piedmont and coastal plain late this afternoon and evening.
Forecast soundings indicate that a seasonably moist environment may
become characterized by moderate CAPE, with perhaps a sufficient
degree of sub-saturation to allow for evaporative cooling in
downdrafts to contribute to modest surface cold pool development.
In the presence of weak deep-layer southwesterly mean flow on the
order of 10-15 kt, the potential for development of sufficiently
strong rear inflow to support surface gusts in excess of 50 kt
appears low, but even with peak gusts generally on the order of
35-50 kt, sporadic damage will still be possible.

..Kerr/Weinman.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101301
SWODY1
SPC AC 101259

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest.
Additional severe storms are expected across parts of the Northeast
and Southeast.

...Central Plains to Midwest...
A complex scenario exists regionally owing to post-MCS influences
including MCV development and convective overturning, at least
temporarily. For one, there does appear at least a somewhat
consistent signal with various convection-allowing guidance that an
MCV across southern Minnesota, and its residual enhanced wind field,
could influence strong/severe thunderstorm development later today,
potentially including parts of Iowa/southeast Minnesota into
southern Wisconsin and northern Illinois.

Otherwise, in advance of the digging upstream troughing, models
indicate that a modest belt of southwesterly low-level flow
(including 20-30+ kt in the 850-700 mb layer) will generally persist
through the day east of the lee surface trough, from the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains into the middle Missouri Valley. It appears
that this will coincide with a corridor of stronger heating/deeper boundary-layer mixing across the higher plains, where thunderstorm
activity initiating during the late afternoon may pose a risk for
damaging wind gusts.

Within the more moist low-level environment across eastern Nebraska
into western Iowa, the wind fields, aided by veering with height,
might become conducive for supercells, in the presence of sizable
CAPE, before forcing for ascent associated with the approaching
mid-level trough tends to support upscale-growing clusters this
evening.

...New England and Upper Ohio Valley...
A mid-level trough will continue to shift eastward over Quebec
today, with the base of the trough and moderately strong cyclonic
flow aloft overspreading northern New York and northern New England.
Models indicate that scattered thunderstorm development is probable
during peak afternoon heating, in the presence of moderate CAPE
(1000-2000 J/kg) and shear enhanced at least somewhat by a belt of
20-30 kt westerly mid-level flow. Damaging winds and some hail will
be possible regionally, but in particular across northeast New York
and Vermont where a more favorable combination of instability/shear
should exist near a weak surface wave/warm front.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
In the presence of a moist airmass, and aided by forcing for ascent
associated with subtle low-amplitude mid-level perturbations,
scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
through early/mid-evening. Several upscale-growing linear clusters
may evolve in the presence of moderate buoyancy and modest-strength
westerlies. Microbursts/storms capable of wind damage will be the
primary hazard regionally.

..Guyer/Dean.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 101635
SWODY1
SPC AC 101633

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE...AND WESTERN IA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR
NORTHEAST NY AND MOST OF VT...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest,
particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe
storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast.

...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA...
Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a
moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery
also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards
the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move
eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to
eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE
and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result
in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms
then moving eastward into the central High Plains.

The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a
strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of
initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale,
with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more
of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream,
some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward.

Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains
will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as
they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some
amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the
resulting convective line likely moving eastward across
south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as
this line moves eastward.

...Mid MS Valley...
A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the
expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the
day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of
this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and
moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL
this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact
with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low
to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate
vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the
mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including
the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop
could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large
hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario
merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher
probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit.

...New England and Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the
larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast
to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent
from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm
development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave
interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated
hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level
moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could
result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived
updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe
coverage is possible.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled
PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample
low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and
moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper
80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern
periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable
and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening.

Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring
along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary
hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time.

..Mosier/Moore.. 07/10/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 102000
SWODY1
SPC AC 101959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF IOWA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and
perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible late this afternoon into
tonight across parts of the central Great Plains to the Midwest,
particularly across the Middle Missouri Valley. Additional severe
storms are expected across parts of the Northeast and Southeast.

...20Z Update...
In the wake of MCV moving into western Wisconsin, a belt of stronger
shear is evident where modest northwesterly flow aloft is positioned
over surface southeasterly winds in central/eastern Iowa.
Furthermore, temperatures have risen into the upper 80s/low 90s F.
Given the potential for widely scattered to scattered storms to
develop on the southwestern flank of the MCV, the Slight risk has
been expanded into more of eastern Iowa. The remainder of the
outlook is unchanged. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

..Wendt.. 07/10/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025/

...Central High Plains through the Central Plains into IA...
Recent surface analysis places a low near the NE/CO border, with a
moist airmass ahead of it over the central Plains. Satellite imagery
also shows a shortwave trough moving through the Great Basin towards
the central High Plains. Both of these features are expected to move
eastward throughout the day, with the surface low contributing to
eventual convective initiation over far southeast SD/northeast NE
and northwest IA this afternoon. The shortwave is expected to result
in numerous thunderstorms over the high terrain, with these storms
then moving eastward into the central High Plains.

The thunderstorms that develop near the surface low will encounter a
strongly unstable and moderately sheared environment supportive of
initial supercells capable of all severe hazards, including very
large hail and tornadoes. This activity should quickly grow upscale,
with the resulting convective line pushing southeastward into more
of northeast NE and western IA. Given ample buoyancy downstream,
some significant wind gusts are possible as this line moves eastward/southeastward.

Farther west, the thunderstorms moving into the central High Plains
will initially be high-based and capable of strong wind gusts as
they move into the very deeply mixed airmass downstream. Some
amalgamation along cold pools is possible here over time, with the
resulting convective line likely moving eastward across
south-central NE and central KS. Damaging gusts will be possible as
this line moves eastward.

...Mid MS Valley...
A well-defined MCV is currently moving across southern MN, with the
expectation that it will continue gradually eastward throughout the
day. Daytime heating along the southern/southeastern periphery of
this vorticity max will likely result in airmass destabilization and
moderate buoyancy from eastern IA into southern WI and northern IL
this afternoon. Mesoscale ascent attendant to the MCV will interact
with this airmass, likely resulting in thunderstorm development. Low
to mid-level flow enhanced by the MCV will result in moderate
vertical shear and the potential for a few supercells. Given the
mesoscale nature of this scenario, overall storm coverage, including
the supercell coverage, is uncertain. Any supercells that do develop
could result in a threat for all severe hazards, including large
hail and a brief tornado. Conditionality of the overall scenario
merits only low severe probabilities for now, but higher
probabilities maybe needed for the 20Z if trends merit.

...New England and Upper Ohio Valley...
A shortwave trough currently is moving through the base of the
larger cyclone over central/eastern ON. This shortwave is forecast
to continue eastward throughout the day, resulting in broad ascent
from the Upper OH Valley into New England. Scattered thunderstorm
development is probable during peak afternoon heating, as this wave
interacts with moderate buoyancy and vertical shear. A predominantly multicellular mode is anticipated, with damaging winds and isolated
hail as the primary risks. A corridor of slightly better low-level
moisture is expected over the Champlain Valley vicinity, which could
result in both greater storm coverage and stronger, more long-lived
updrafts. As a result, there is a small area where higher severe
coverage is possible.

...Southeast/Southern Atlantic Seaboard...
A very moist airmass is in place across the Southeast and southern
Atlantic Seaboard. Recent surface analysis reveals dewpoints in the
low to mid 70s areawide. 12Z soundings at FFC, JAX, and CHS sampled
PW values of 1.91", 1.97", and 2.14", respectively. This ample
low-level moisture will help support airmass destabilization and
moderate to strong buoyancy as temperatures increase into the upper
80s and low 90s this afternoon. Subtle ascent along the southern
periphery of broad upper troughing will interact with this unstable
and buoyant airmass to support scattered strong to severe
thunderstorms this afternoon through early/mid-evening.

Vertical shear across the region will be very weak, resulting in an outflow-dominant storm mode, with new development then occurring
along these outflows. Water-loaded downbursts will be the primary
hazard as these clusters gradually move southeastward over time.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110042
SWODY1
SPC AC 110040

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 PM CDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL KANSAS....EASTERN
NEBRASKA...MUCH OF IOWA...PARTS OF NWRN ILLINOIS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible
this evening across parts of the central Great Plains into Upper
Midwest. This could still include a slowly organizing cluster of
storms with potential for strong to severe surface gusts across the
eastern Nebraska into Iowa vicinity.

...01Z Update...
A belt of 20-30+ kt southerly/westerly lower/mid-tropospheric flow
across parts of the central Great Plains into portions of the Upper
Midwest may continue to enhance convective development, at least a
bit, this evening into the overnight hours. In mid-levels, this
includes flow augmented by convectively generated cyclonic
circulations, but, in lower-levels, this includes a
south-southwesterly low-level jet associated with weak mid-level
troughing digging east-southeast of the Wyoming/Colorado Rockies.
The low-level jet appears to be focusing a corridor of stronger warm
advection across parts of south central through eastern Nebraska,
where convective development may still consolidate and grow upscale
this evening. Perhaps aided by forcing associated with the synoptic perturbation, or another evolving MCV, it might not be out of the
question that activity may slowly organize and acquire increasing
inflow of seasonably moist boundary-layer air characterized by
sizable CAPE as it tends to propagate eastward overnight. If this
occurs, there appears potential for sufficient intensification to
support an increasing risk for strong to severe surface gusts.

..Kerr.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 110557
SWODY1
SPC AC 110556

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN KANSAS...MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSOURI...SOUTHEASTERN IOWA...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...ADJACENT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN INDIANA...AND PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Strong thunderstorms are likely to impact a corridor from the lower
Missouri Valley into southern portions of the Great Lakes regions
this afternoon and evening, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind
gusts, a few tornadoes and some hail.

...Discussion...
While mid/upper ridging across the sub-tropical into southern
mid-latitudes remains at least a bit suppressed for the time of
year, models indicate that the stronger westerlies will remain
confined to the higher latitudes. It does appear that a notable
short wave trough now digging to the lee of the Canadian and
northern U.S. Rockies will progress eastward along the central
Canadian/U.S. border vicinity today through tonight, and gradually
pivot from a positive to neutral tilt. As it does, preceding weak
mid-level troughing, and at least a couple of embedded convective
perturbations are forecast to accelerate northeastward within weak
to modest ambient flow backing to a southwesterly component across
the lower Missouri Valley vicinity into the Great Lakes region.

At the same time, northwesterly mid-level flow will be maintained
with weak height falls across the southern Rockies into adjacent
Great Plains, while gradually mid-level height rises are forecast
across the Appalachians into Atlantic Seaboard.

In lower-levels, the primary short wave trough may support a modest
developing surface low across northwestern Ontario, with cooler and
drier air in its wake overspreading much of the northern Great
Plains by 12Z Saturday. Another low emerging from the central Great
Plains is forecast to migrate northeast of the lower Missouri Valley
toward the upper Great Lakes, along an initially diffuse low-level
baroclinic zone.

...Lower Missouri Valley into Great Lakes...
The low-level baroclinic zone may still be a focus for weakening
convective development at the outset of the period. However, as the
convection dissipates further, models suggest that the boundary will
become better defined with strengthening differential heating.
Surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly steep
mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on the
order of 2000-3000 J/kg along and south of the boundary, gradually
tapering to the north, beneath a lingering belt of convectively
augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt in the 700-500 mb
layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs
developing in advance of the migratory low, the environment may
become conducive to supercell structures posing a risk for a few
tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri and southeastern Iowa
into northern Illinois, before damaging wind gusts become the more
predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale
into clusters through this evening.

...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture,
but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep
boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered
thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late
this afternoon and evening. This may be aided by modest shear
beneath the northwesterly mid-level flow, with thunderstorm activity
mostly initiating off the higher terrain of the Front Range through
Sangre de Cristo Mountains. However, low-level convergence within
surface troughing across southern Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas
Panhandle vicinity may also become sufficient for thunderstorm
initiation during the peak late afternoon heating.

..Kerr/Thornton.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111256
SWODY1
SPC AC 111254

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some
tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest.

...Midwest/Lower Missouri Valley to Great Lakes...
A decayed overnight MCS and residual convection/cloud cover will
reinforce the baroclinic zone regionally. Near/south of the
boundary, surface dew points near and above 70F, beneath modestly
steep mid-level lapse rates, are forecast to contribute to CAPE on
the order of 2000-3000 J/kg. This will be beneath a lingering belt
of convectively augmented mid-level flow (on the order of 30-50 kt
in the 700-500 mb layer). Coupled with modest, clockwise-curved
low-level hodographs in advance of a weak surface wave, the
environment should become conducive to supercell structures into
mid/late afternoon. These supercells may pose a risk for hail and
potentially a couple of tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri
and southern/eastern Iowa into northern Illinois, and possibly far
southern Wisconsin. Damaging wind gusts should become the more
predominant potential hazard as convection tends to grow upscale
into east/southeastward-moving clusters this evening.

...Central High Plains...
The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe
storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast
Wyoming and northeast Colorado into southwest Nebraska/northwest
Kansas. Some initial supercells capable of large hail can be
expected, and one or more east/eastward-moving clusters may evolve
by evening with severe-caliber winds also a possibility.

...Upper Midwest...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected
near the east/southeastward-moving front this afternoon, including
the eastern Dakotas into much of Minnesota. This will be influenced
by the amplifying upper-level trough approaching the
Dakotas/northern Minnesota. The strongest winds aloft/vertical shear
will tend to lag the front, but ample near/pre-frontal buoyancy will
support storms capable of hail/wind.

...Southern Rockies into the Great Plains...
Thermodynamic profiles characterized by modest low-level moisture,
but with generally steep lapse rates, including fairly deep
boundary-layer mixing, may become conducive to scattered
thunderstorm clusters posing a risk for severe wind and hail late
this afternoon and evening. A degree of storm organization may be
aided by modest shear beneath northwesterly mid-level flow, with
thunderstorm activity mostly initiating off the higher terrain of
the Front Range through Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Additionally,
low-level convergence within surface troughing across southern
Kansas through the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity may also become
sufficient for thunderstorm initiation during the peak late
afternoon heating, and one or more semi-organized clusters capable
of wind damage could evolve. This region will be reevaluated in
subsequent outlooks for potential inclusion of a wind-related Slight
Risk.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111632
SWODY1
SPC AC 111631

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some
tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest.

...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes...
Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual
cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to
reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low
eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This
boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness
and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to
its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is
anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into
northern/central MO and western IL.

Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent
convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this
destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development
by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place
throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of
these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively
narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level
flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy
convection evolution appears probable.

Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early
afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the
warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible
farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial
development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging
gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low
as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these
initially more cellular storms as well.

Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution
towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind
gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this
occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat
for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective
line as well.

...Central High Plains...
The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe
storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY
and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some
initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or
more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with
severe-caliber winds also a possibility.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low
60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset
some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s
this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these
storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately
moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the
southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the
higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and
the development of one or more forward-propagating convective
clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters,
with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing
15% wind probabilities.

...Upper Midwest...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected
within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front
this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD,
This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough
approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds
aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample
near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 111946
SWODY1
SPC AC 111945

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0245 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR
NORTHEAST MO AND SOUTHEAST IA INTO NORTHWEST IL...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening across
the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region,
accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail, as well as some
tornado potential. Severe thunderstorms are also expected across the central/southern High Plains and Upper Midwest.

...20Z Update...
Minor modifications were made to the ongoing forecast based on
current observations and expected convective evolution. Please see
the previous forecast for additional forecast details.

..Wendt.. 07/11/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1131 AM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025/

...Lower MO and Mid MS Valleys into Great Lakes...
Recent surface analysis places a low over far southeast NE. Residual
cloudiness and showers northeast of this low are helping to
reinforce a warm-front-like baroclinic zone that extends from low
eastward along the IA/MO border through central IL and IN. This
boundary will likely sharpen throughout the day as the cloudiness
and showers persist to its north and temperatures warm into 90s to
its south. As a result, a reservoir of strong buoyancy is
anticipated south of this boundary from southern IA into
northern/central MO and western IL.

Lift associated with the surface low, as well as its parent
convectively augmented shortwave trough, will interact with this
destabilized and buoyant airmass to support thunderstorm development
by the early afternoon. Moderate vertical shear will be in place
throughout the base of the shortwave, helping to organize some of
these storms. However, the corridor of strongest shear is relatively
narrow, with the broader environment characterized by weak mid-level
flow and limited vertical shear. As such, a somewhat messy
convection evolution appears probable.

Initial development is expected over southern IA during the early
afternoon. This activity will likely be elevated just north of the
warm front. Additional warm sector development is also possible
farther east across west-central/northwest IL. This initial
development could be more cellular, with both hail and damaging
gusts as primary risks. However, given the presence of a surface low
as well as the warm front, some tornado risk is possible with these
initially more cellular storms as well.

Convective coverage is expected to increase with overall evolution
towards a more linear mode anticipated with time. Damaging wind
gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as this
occurs with the line moving east/southeastward this evening. Threat
for brief embedded tornadoes exists within this evolving convective
line as well.

...Central High Plains...
The immediate post-frontal regime should be favorable for severe
storm development this afternoon into evening across southeast WY
and northeast CO into adjacent southwest NE/northwest KS. Some
initial supercells capable of large hail can be expected, and one or
more eastward-moving clusters may evolve by evening with
severe-caliber winds also a possibility.

...Southern High Plains...
Moderate low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the upper 50 to low
60s) is currently in place across eastern NM, which will help offset
some of the mixing anticipated as the airmass heats into the 90s
this afternoon. Thunderstorm development is anticipated across the
higher terrain of central/northern NM and the Raton Mesa, with these
storms then progressing eastward/southeastward into the moderately
moist, deeply mixed, and unstable airmass downstream across the
southern High Plains. Numerous thunderstorms are expected, with the
higher storm coverage likely facilitating cold pool amalgamation and
the development of one or more forward-propagating convective
clusters. Strong wind gusts would be possible within these clusters,
with severe coverage expected to be high enough to merit introducing
15% wind probabilities.

...Upper Midwest...
At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms can be expected
within a narrow corridor near the east/southeastward-moving front
this afternoon from north-central MN southwestward into eastern SD,
This will be influenced by the amplifying upper-level trough
approaching the Dakotas/northern MN. The strongest winds
aloft/vertical shear will tend to lag the front, but ample
near/pre-frontal buoyancy will support storms capable of hail/wind.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120057
SWODY1
SPC AC 120055

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening across
parts of the Midwest and the central/southern High Plains.

...Midwest...
Earlier severe MCS that produced a swath of damaging wind and
measured significant severe gusts in the IA/IL/WI border area has
generally weakened, with deepest convection now to its southwest in
the IA/MO/IL border area. Ample buoyancy ahead of the trailing
convective swath, as sampled by the 00Z ILX sounding, could support
sporadic damaging winds through late evening. But with modest
deep-layer shear (around 20 kts 0-6 km shear in the 00Z ILX
sounding) and weaker forcing for ascent, damaging wind potential
will diminish overnight.

...Southern High Plains...
Scattered cells across the Raton Mesa should consolidate into a
slow-moving cluster across northeast NM/southeast CO. This cluster
should spread southeast through at least the western TX/OK
Panhandles into late evening, as a low-level jet strengthens to its
south. This could foster sporadic severe gusts until convective
intensity wanes overnight amid increasing MLCIN.

...Central High Plains...
Numerous cells across northeast CO should amalgamate into a
short-lived cluster in the next couple hours. This should yield a
transition from a primary threat of severe hail to wind in the
CO/KS/NE border area by late evening. Low-level negative theta-e
advection across the NE Panhandle is progged to shift south. This
should result in the cluster decaying overnight with a diminishing
convective wind threat.

..Grams.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 120547
SWODY1
SPC AC 120545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered damaging winds are most probable across eastern Lower
Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through
dusk.

...Great Lakes...
A shortwave trough centered on the MB/ON to Dakotas/MN borders will
take on an increasingly negative tilt as it ejects across northwest
ON and the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of this feature, a convectively
aided shortwave impulse should dampen as it accelerates
north-northeast through the central Great Lakes into northeast ON by
early afternoon. Belts of enhanced mid-level southwesterlies will be
confined to WI/MI.

Ongoing convection from Lake MI to MO is expected to largely decay
this morning. Some guidance suggests reinvigoration may occur in the
late morning across northern Lower into eastern Upper MI as the lead
shortwave impulse passes. Primary storm development along an initial
composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to late afternoon
from parts of eastern Lower MI towards the Wabash/Lower OH Valleys.
Ample buoyancy will be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm
mid-level temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly
uniform wind speeds through much of the kinematic profile will limit
deep-layer shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the
setup will be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat
that will subside after dusk in parts of OH/KY.

Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the
secondary cold front pushing east across northern/eastern WI and
upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind profiles will
modulate the degree of deep-layer shear and help to marginalize the
overall threat.

...OK/TX/NM/CO...
Multiple areas of ongoing thunderstorms from southern NE to the TX
Panhandle are expected to persist and shift south-southeastward this
morning. Differential diabatic heating in vicinity of remnant
MCVs/outflows and orographic forcing for ascent will be the primary
drivers of storm development today. Convection across OK/TX will
probably persist and gradually intensify in tandem with downstream boundary-layer heating. Within predominately weak deep-layer shear,
slow-moving and mainly disorganized updrafts will dominate. Sporadic
strong to marginal severe gusts along with small to marginally
severe hail will be possible in a mix of cells/clusters.

Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the
higher terrain of NM/CO should aid in weak/transient updraft
rotation as numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated
severe hail will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts
mainly across interior to southern NM.

...Mid-South/TN Valley to the southern Piedmont...
A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear
but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for erratic wet
microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening.

..Grams/Thornton.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121251
SWODY1
SPC AC 121250

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower Ohio Valley, mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset.

...Great Lakes/Midwest...
An eastward-moving shortwave trough near the Manitoba/Ontario and
Minnesota international border vicinity will overspread Lake
Superior through late today into this evening while gradually taking
on more negative tilt, with a convectively influenced perturbation
ahead of it. Associated moderately strong westerlies will be
relegated to portions of Wisconsin/Michigan, with sub-25 kt
mid-level westerlies generally prevalent southward into the
lower/middle Ohio River vicinity.

Influenced by the lead shortwave trough, storm redevelopment may
occur relatively early today across northern/eastern Lower Michigan,
which could include some supercells. Primary storm development along
an initial composite cold front/outflow is anticipated by mid to
late afternoon from parts of eastern Lower Michigan towards the
Wabash/Lower Ohio Valleys. Ample buoyancy (2000+ J/kg MLCAPE) will
be prevalent ahead of this boundary despite warm mid-level
temperatures. Unidirectional southwesterlies and nearly uniform wind
speeds through the lower/middle troposphere will limit deep-layer
shear and the degree of organized clustering. Still, the setup will
be adequate for mainly a scattered damaging wind threat that will
subside after sunset with storms lingering across Kentucky/Ohio.

Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the
secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern
Wisconsin and upper Michigan. Cooling mid-level temperatures will
aid in weak MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly
low-level wind profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear
and help to marginalize the overall threat.

...Southern Plains including Oklahoma and North Texas...
Today's severe risk will be influenced by multiple
slow-east/southeast-moving MCVs that persist this morning across
southwest Kansas and the Texas Panhandle. Storms will likely
diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon across much of
Oklahoma and a large part of north Texas. A modest MCV-related
enhancement to the lower/middle tropospheric wind field may persist
today, which could lead to some brief supercell structures and
quasi-organized linear structures as mergers become more prevalent.
Damaging winds and some hail may occur, and portions of the region
will be reevaluated for a possible Slight Risk upgrade should
confidence increase in a semi-focused corridor of severe potential
this afternoon through early evening.

...Colorado/New Mexico...
Modestly enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies over the
higher terrain should aid in weak/transient updraft rotation as
numerous cells develop during the afternoon. Isolated severe hail
will be possible regionwide, with isolated severe gusts mainly
across interior to southern New Mexico.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virgina...
A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear
but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet
microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage
possible.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 121625
SWODY1
SPC AC 121623

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN AND THE LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are expected
across eastern Lower Michigan to the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley,
mainly from mid-afternoon through sunset.

...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley...
Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central
Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is
a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far
northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a
bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of
gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have
aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and
farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with
cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective
evolution across the region today.

The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a
belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD,
which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s
to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis
already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from
1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with
instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead
of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654,
there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for
supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across
northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of
damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise,
multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will
become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary
threat of damaging wind.

Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent
attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO
should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern
IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead
of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm
mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a
few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This
risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this
evening.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one
MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle,
and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is
possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving
eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK.
Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon
across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak
across much of the region, except near the MCV where some
low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a
few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even
so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit
the overall severe coverage.

...Colorado/New Mexico...
Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher
terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in
weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for
isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not
expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few
days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass
is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater
chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains.

...WI into Upper MI...
Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the
secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern
WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind
profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to
marginalize the overall threat.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia...
A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear
but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet
microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage
possible.

..Mosier/Lyons.. 07/12/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 122001
SWODY1
SPC AC 122000

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE
LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe storms capable of damaging winds are possible
across parts of the Lower/Middle Ohio Valley through sunset.

...20Z Update...
The primary change to the ongoing forecast was to remove severe
probabilities from lower Michigan where the airmass has become more
stable behind the surface front. Elsewhere, minor changes were made
base on current observations. Please see the previous forecast for
additional details.

..Wendt.. 07/12/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/

...Lower MI into Lower/Mid OH Valley...
Recent surface analysis shows a pre-frontal wind shift from central
Lower MI southwestward through central IN. The cold front itself is
a bit farther west, extending across western Lower MI through far
northwest IN and southern IL, although the temperature gradient is a
bit diffuse. Additionally, satellite imagery shows a series of
gravity waves ahead of the pre-frontal wind shift. These waves have
aided in the development of thunderstorms over northern Lower MI and
farther south in south-central MI. This complex pattern coupled with
cloudiness results in uncertainty regarding the overall convective
evolution across the region today.

The highest severe thunderstorm potential still appears to be across north-central/northeast Lower MI, where recent mesoanalysis places a
belt of stronger low-level flow. This is verified by the APX VAD,
which has recently sampled 30 to 40 kt between 1 and 2 km. Upper 60s
to low 70s dewpoints are in place over the region, and mesoanalysis
already estimates minimal convective inhibition with MLCAPE from
1000 to 1500 J/kg. Some filtered heating is ongoing as well, with
instability expected to increase through the early afternoon ahead
of the approaching front. As mentioned in recently issued MCD #1654,
there may be a window of opportunity early afternoon this for
supercell development along/ahead of the front, especially across
northeast lower MI. Any such development would pose a threat of
damaging wind, isolated hail, and possibly a tornado. Otherwise,
multicell clusters and perhaps a transient supercell or two will
become increasingly possible into this afternoon, with a primary
threat of damaging wind.

Farther south, lift along the front combined with mesoscale ascent
attendant to the convective cluster currently over far southeast MO
should result in afternoon thunderstorm development from southern
IL/far western KY into much of IN. Strong buoyancy is expected ahead
of the front, but shear will be weaker, with a less organized storm
mode anticipated. Even so, given the number of storms anticipated, a
few convective clusters capable of damaging gusts are possible. This
risk should shift eastward into OH and KY before storm weaken this
evening.

...Southern Plains into the Ozarks...
A triplet of MCVs is apparent in recent satellite imagery, with one
MCV over southwest KS, another over the far eastern TX Panhandle,
and the last over the TX South Plains. Thunderstorm development is
possible with each of these features, particularly the one moving
eastward out of the eastern TX Panhandle into western/central OK.
Storms will likely diurnally increase and intensify this afternoon
across much of OK and a large part of north TX. Shear will be weak
across much of the region, except near the MCV where some
low/mid-level flow enhancement is possible. This could result in a
few more organized updrafts across north-central/central OK. Even
so, deep-layer flow will remain modest, which is expected to limit
the overall severe coverage.

...Colorado/New Mexico...
Thunderstorm development is again anticipated over the higher
terrain of central CO and north-central NM this afternoon. Modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level north-northwesterlies should aid in
weak/transient updraft rotation, supporting the potential for
isolated severe hail. The airmass across the CO Plains is not
expected to be as favorable for storm persistence as the last few
days, suggesting the threat for strong gusts is lower. The airmass
is a bit more favorable across NM, suggesting a relatively greater
chance of a few severe across the NM High Plains.

...WI into Upper MI...
Isolated severe hail/damaging winds may also develop along the
secondary cold front advancing eastward across northern/eastern
WI and Upper MI. Cooling mid-level temperatures will aid in weak
MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. Westerly low-level wind
profiles will modulate the degree of deep-layer shear, helping to
marginalize the overall threat.

...Mid-South/Tennessee Valley to the Carolinas/Virginia...
A pulse storm environment characterized by weak effective bulk shear
but moderate buoyancy will support a threat for isolated wet
microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening, with tree damage
possible.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130046
SWODY1
SPC AC 130045

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0745 PM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

Valid 130100Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms remain possible, mainly through late
evening, across parts of the Southwest and South-Central States.

...TX Trans-Pecos to southern CO...
An isolated severe wind/hail threat should persist for a few more
hours with widely scattered convection largely remaining tied to the
higher terrain of south-central CO and northeast to south-central
NM. With only a modest combination of buoyancy and deep-layer shear
and lack of larger-scale ascent, severe potential will diminish
after dusk.

...AR to the Edwards Plateau of TX...
Numerous slow-moving clusters and cells are prevalent ahead of
multiple MCVs. With weak deep-layer shear and around 2 inch PW
values, as sampled by the 00Z FWD sounding, heavy rain will remain
the primary convective threat. Moderate buoyancy will linger for a
couple more hours to support a localized wet microburst/strong gust
threat. Recent HRRR/RRFS runs suggest that overnight convective
development may focus to the southwest of the Concho Valley MCV over
the Edwards Plateau. This could yield an isolated severe hail threat
in initial development, followed by locally strong downbursts as
storms mature. Both of these risks should be secondary to the heavy
rain/flash flooding potential (see 01Z WPC ERO with MDT risk).

...TN/OH Valleys to the Piedmont...
Locally strong gusts could persist for another hour or two before
disorganized convection further subsides.

..Grams.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 130555
SWODY1
SPC AC 130553

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN AND SOUTHWEST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...Upper Midwest...
In the wake of a 500-mb trough passage this morning, a strong 500-mb
jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces. Guidance
consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should shift
southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern Dakotas
to western MN by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening
convergence along a progressive surface trough approaching northeast
MN to the Mid-MO Valley. The northwest flow setup will yield
favorable hodograph structure for potential discrete supercells and
large hail production. But modest mid-level lapse rates and a
confined weak to moderate buoyancy plume, largely driven by
evapotranspiration ahead of the front, should modulate overall intensity/coverage. Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few
widely spaced supercells seem plausible from late afternoon to dusk.

...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Scattered to numerous storms are expected this afternoon within a
persistent high PW airmass across the East. Convection from PA
southward will remain disorganized amid weak to minimal shear with
southern extent into VA/NC. Modest mid-level southwesterlies across
NY, owing to peripheral influence of the ON/Upper Great Lakes
trough, may aid in weak multicell clustering here. Erratic, mainly
pulse convection is anticipated with locally strong gusts.

...Southwest...
As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great
Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern NM turning
to easterlies over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected to
develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south to west
from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in buoyancy from
northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High Plains,
isolated severe hail will be possible over NM. Otherwise, isolated
severe gusts should be the primary threat into southeast AZ.

...South-central TX to the Lower OH Valley...
A nearly-stationary MCS is expected to be ongoing at 12Z across a
portion of south-central TX with a primary threat of flash flooding
(see WPC EROs/MPDs for details). Scattered convection should also be
ongoing north-northeast into parts of MO. Multiple MCVs within both
regimes will likely drift east within a low-amplitude mid-level
trough. A belt of enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies ahead of these
features may overlap various large-scale outflows. This could
support an uptick in isolated damaging winds surrounding peak
boundary-layer heating, mainly from midday to dusk.

...FL...
With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central
Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state. 00Z
HREF indicates a pronounced signal for scattered storms along the
north FL/south GA border through the central/eastern FL Peninsula.
Amid 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small
hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be
possible from mid-afternoon to early evening.

..Grams/Thornton.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131231
SWODY1
SPC AC 131230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Glancingly influenced by the Great Lakes/Ontario/western Quebec
upper-level trough, pre-frontal convergence/terrain will contribute
to scattered thunderstorm development into this afternoon within a
moist air mass. Most storms will tend to remain disorganized/pulse
in nature across the Mid-Atlantic. However, modestly stronger
mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained multicells
particularly across central/northern portions of New York and
Pennsylvania, where a Slight Risk appears warranted for a somewhat
focused corridor of severe storm potential. Wind/tree damage will be
the primary hazard regionally.

...Florida...
With the mid-level anticyclone becoming centered along the central
Gulf Coast, weak northerly flow will dominate much of the state,
with scattered afternoon thunderstorm development expected to be
most prominent across the eastern half of the Peninsula. Amid
2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and high PW values yielding melting small
hail, localized marginal severe gusts in wet microbursts will be
possible from mid-afternoon to early evening.

...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
One or more MCVs should persist generally eastward across the
Ozarks, potentially maintaining a modestly enhanced mid/low-level
flow field through the diurnal heating cycle. This could influence
organized storms this afternoon through early evening, potentially
including a few supercells and linear segments. Damaging winds will
be possible, and brief tornado potential cannot be ruled out.

...South-central/East Texas...
A nearly-stationary MCS is ongoing this morning across south-central
Texas with a primary threat of flash flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for
details). Potential MCV influences and composite outflow and
differential heating may contribute to strong/severe thunderstorm
development into peak heating, mainly on the southern/eastern
periphery of the early morning MCS. Isolated wet microbursts capable
of wind damage would be the most probable severe hazard aside from rainfall-related aspects.

...Upper Midwest...
In the wake of a mid-level trough passage this morning, a strong
mid-level jetlet will shift across the southern Prairie Provinces.
Guidance consensus indicates a low-amplitude 700-mb trough should
shift southeast ahead of the aforementioned jetlet in the eastern
Dakotas to western Minnesota by late afternoon. This should aid in strengthening convergence along a progressive surface trough
approaching northeast Minnesota to the Mid-Missouri Valley. The
northwest flow setup will yield favorable hodograph structure for
potential discrete supercells and large hail production. But modest
mid-level lapse rates and a confined weak to moderate buoyancy
plume, largely driven by evapotranspiration ahead of the front,
should modulate overall storm intensity/coverage. Isolated large
hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells seem plausible
from late afternoon until around sunset.

...Southwest...
As a mid-level anticyclone becomes centered over the southern Great
Basin, modest northerlies will dominate across northern New Mexico,
turning to easterlies over southeast Arizona. Widespread storms are
expected to develop off the higher terrain and slowly progress south
to west from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. With a gradient in
buoyancy from northwest to southeast, larger over the southern High
Plains, isolated severe hail will be possible over New Mexico.
Otherwise, isolated severe gusts should be the primary threat into
southeast Arizona.

..Guyer/Bentley.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131952
SWODY1
SPC AC 131950

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA...CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHERN NEW YORK...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...20Z Update...
Adjustments were made to the general thunderstorm area based on
current observations. The forecast is otherwise unchanged. See the
previous forecast for additional details.

..Wendt.. 07/13/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025/

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent
from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into
central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a
generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such,
water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly
stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained
multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently,
there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region
where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely.

...Southwest...
Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning
more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected
to develop off the higher terrain and then progress
southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given
moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off
the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass.

...Upper Midwest...
Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and
western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent
attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface
trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms
during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level
northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential
discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively
warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering
convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage.
Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells
seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset.

...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas...
Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered
over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not
expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward.
However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV
is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant
airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash
flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded
downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite
outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and
evening.

...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across
the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost
vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR
border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO.
Both of these features are expected to progress
eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant
airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the
Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep
southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support
some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing
cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western
KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected.
Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster.

...Lower MS Valley...
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist
(i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over
2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity
will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any
outflow boundaries.

...Florida...
A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast
today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western
periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and
central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest
(i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster
some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass
that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible
within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 131630
SWODY1
SPC AC 131628

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN NEW
YORK INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA....

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible today through early
tonight in the Upper Midwest, Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, Southwest,
south-central Texas to the Lower Ohio Valley, and Florida.

...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States...
Moist low-level convergence, orographic effects, and glancing ascent
from an exiting shortwave trough will combine to support widespread thunderstorm development from western/central NY southward into
central VA today. Shear is weak across much of the region, with a
generally disorganized multicellular mode anticipated. As such,
water-loaded downbursts will be the primary risk. However, modestly
stronger mid-level southwesterlies could support some sustained
multicells from central/northern NY into central PA. Consequently,
there is corridor of greater severe potential across this region
where storm clustering and linear segments appear more likely.

...Southwest...
Modest northerly flow aloft is forecast across northern NM, turning
more northeasterly over southeast AZ. Widespread storms are expected
to develop off the higher terrain and then progress
southward/southwestward from mid-afternoon to mid-evening. Given
moderate northeasterly flow, the potential for strong gusts exists, particularly across southeast AZ, where high-based storms coming off
the higher terrain will move into a deeply mixed airmass.

...Upper Midwest...
Satellite imagery shows some modest drying over far southern MB and
western ND associated with a low-amplitude shortwave trough embedded
within the northwesterly flow aloft. Modest large-scale ascent
attendant to this wave will augment convergence along a surface
trough progressing through the region to support thunderstorms
during the late afternoon/early evening. Strengthening mid-level
northwesterly flow will result in hodographs supportive of potential
discrete supercells and large hail production. However, relatively
warm profiles (i.e. modest mid-level lapse rates) and lingering
convective inhibition should limit overall storm intensity/coverage.
Isolated large hail/severe gusts from a few widely spaced supercells
seem plausible from late afternoon until around sunset.

...TX Hill Country into South-Central/East Texas...
Morning radar and satellite imagery show a well-defined MCV centered
over the Concho/McCulloch/Menard county vicinity. This MCV is not
expected to move much today as it drifts slowly south/southeastward.
However, outflow associated with thunderstorms generated by this MCV
is pushing eastward/southeastward into the very moist and buoyant
airmass downstream. Primary threat with this system is likely flash
flooding (see WPC EROs/MPDs for details), but a few water-loaded
downbursts capable of wind damage are possible as the composite
outflow pushes into more of south-central/east TX this afternoon and
evening.

...Mid-South/Lower Ohio Valley...
A pair of convectively enhanced vorticity maxima are apparent across
the region on recent radar and satellite imagery. The southernmost
vorticity max is currently moving eastward across the central OK/AR
border, while the northernmost max is moving through central MO.
Both of these features are expected to progress
eastward/northeastward today, interacting with the moist and buoyant
airmass downstream to promote widespread thunderstorms from the
Lower OH Valley into the Mid-South vicinity. Modest but deep
southwesterly flow will be in place, which could potentially support
some clustering/upscale growth along a northeastward-progressing
cold pool, particularly from the MO Bootheel vicinity into western
KY and southern IN where the highest storm coverage is expected.
Some risk for damaging gusts could accompany this cluster.

...Lower MS Valley...
A few water-loaded downbursts are possible within the very moist
(i.e. PWAT greater than 2") and strongly buoyant (i.e. MLCAPE over
2500 J/kg) airmass over the region this afternoon. Updraft longevity
will be limited by weak shear but new development is likely on any
outflow boundaries.

...Florida...
A modest mid-level cyclone will drift closer to the Southeast coast
today. Mid-level northerly/northwesterly flow around the western
periphery of this cyclone is expected across the northern and
central FL Peninsula today. Even though it will be relatively modest
(i.e. 20 to 25 kt at 500 mb), it should still be enough to foster
some long-lived updrafts within the very moist and unstable airmass
that is in place. As a result, damaging gusts will be possible
within wet microbursts from mid-afternoon to early evening.

..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/13/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140045
SWODY1
SPC AC 140044

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0744 PM CDT Sun Jul 13 2025

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHEAST AZ
TO SOUTH-CENTRAL NM...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe gusts remain possible into late evening across
southeast Arizona to south-central New Mexico.

...01Z Update...
Multiple weakly organized clusters are ongoing across southeast AZ
to south-central NM, within a modest combination of deep-layer shear
and lingering buoyancy. Prior overturning and lack of greater
organization should result in severe wind potential diminishing over
the next couple hours. See MCD 1666 for additional discussion.

Elsewhere, locally strong storms are expected to diminish over the
next couple hours across the East, South-Central States, and Upper
Midwest. Isolated strong gusts may accompany convection developing
tonight along the international border in MT/ND from the southern
Canadian Prairies, where scant elevated buoyancy should be present
atop residual inverted-v thermodynamic profiles.

..Grams.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 140548
SWODY1
SPC AC 140546

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1246 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE NORTHERN...EASTERN...AND SOUTHWEST STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across the northern
High/Great Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this
afternoon into tonight.

...Northern High/Great Plains...
A shortwave trough will dig south across BC and reach the northern
Rockies by 12Z Tuesday. A belt of strong mid-level westerlies will
be centered along the international border through the Upper
Midwest, with downstream low-amplitude shortwave impulses across
south-central Canada. This setup will yield a pronounced
west/east-oriented surface front, with the gradient strengthened by differential heating, bisecting MT to northern MN. The western
portion of the front will steadily progress south as a cyclone
develops near the MT/ND/SD border.

Scattered to numerous late-afternoon/early evening thunderstorms are
likely over the higher terrain in an arc from the MT/WY border
across western SD and the WY/NE border area. This initial activity
will be high-based with deep inverted-v thermodynamic profiles
downstream, supporting sporadic severe gusts amid weaker deep-layer
shear with southern extent. A couple short-lived supercells may
develop within a mesoscale corridor downstream into the
south-central ND vicinity. Pronounced MLCIN in the warm/moist sector
with southeast extent should mitigate greater severe coverage.
Otherwise, mainly elevated thunderstorms will become prevalent from
dusk through the overnight across north-central MT to northern MN.
Given the aforementioned strong mid-level westerlies, isolated
severe hail and locally strong gusts will be possible into early
morning Tuesday.

...East...
Within a persistent high PW air mass from the Northeast to FL,
greater boundary-layer heating is expected from MD southward. This
will yield a broad swath of 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE by afternoon.
Farther north, more limited heating is anticipated, muting buoyancy
amid weak mid-level lapse rates. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms
will develop from southeast NY to FL. Deep-layer shear will be weak,
but could be slightly greater in the Northeast ahead of an MCV
(currently over OH) and in FL amid modest mid-level northerlies.
Similar to recent days, isolated damaging winds are anticipated.

...Mid-South...
An MCV near FSM should drift east-northeast with an accompanying
belt of modestly enhanced 700-mb southwesterlies to its immediate
southeast. This may support an isolated damaging wind threat by
afternoon, along the northern periphery of ample buoyancy over the
Lower MS Valley to Deep South.

...Southeast AZ...
With a mid-level anticyclone remaining anchored over the southern
Great Basin, modestly enhanced northeasterlies will envelop most of
southern AZ by peak heating. Guidance signals are mixed on whether a slow-moving cluster may develop off the higher terrain of the AZ/NM
border region. Consensus suggests more discrete activity. But
similar to Sunday evening, a short-lived cluster may form with a
primary threat of localized severe gusts.

..Grams/Thornton.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141237
SWODY1
SPC AC 141235

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST...MID-SOUTH...AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of
the northern Plains, East, Mid-South, and southeast Arizona this
afternoon into tonight.

...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota...
As an upper trough digs southward from British Columbia to the
northern Rockies today, a belt of enhanced mid-level westerlies will
extend along/near the international border from MT to MN. At the
surface, a front should also extend generally west-east across this
region, displaced slightly south of the mid-level jet. The western
portion of this front (across MT/ND) is forecast to move southward
tonight as a surface low gradually develops/consolidates near the
MT/ND/SD border.

Forcing for ascent will remain weak for much of the day as mid-level
heights remain neutral. Still, high-based convection may develop
across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains by this
afternoon/evening. With steep low/mid-level lapse rates and modest
westerly mid-level flow present, some of these thunderstorms could
pose an isolated threat for severe winds/hail as they move eastward
through the evening. The potential for surface-based convection to
develop in proximity to the front remains unclear. A conditionally
favorable environment for severe thunderstorms will exist near the
front, but weak forcing and increasing MLCIN/warmer temperatures
aloft with southward extent cast considerable uncertainty regarding
overall thunderstorm coverage this afternoon/evening. A better
chance exists for elevated thunderstorms to occur tonight as the
upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. This activity could
pose an isolated threat for mainly severe hail given ample MUCAPE
and strong shear forecast in the cloud-bearing layer.

...Eastern States...
As a weak mid-level shortwave trough moves eastward from the OH
Valley across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are expected to initially develop across the
higher terrain of these regions. While mid-level flow and related
deep-layer shear are both expected to remain fairly modest, some of
this convection could congeal into multiple loosely organized
clusters. With daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass,
moderate instability should develop across the lower terrain east of
the Blue Ridge/Appalachians. Modestly steepened low-level lapse
rates should also aid in some enhancement to convective downdrafts,
with isolated strong to damaging winds possible as thunderstorms
spread generally eastward through the afternoon and evening.

Farther south across parts of FL and southeast GA, convection should
develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading
south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. This activity will be associated with a weak
low/mid-level trough currently off the FL Atlantic Coast. While
low-level and deep-layer shear are both forecast to remain modest,
some enhancement to mid/upper-level north-northeasterlies could
promote multiple clusters capable of producing isolated strong to
severe winds given moderate to locally strong instability.

...Mid-South...
A remnant MCV will drift east-northeastward today over the Mid-South
and vicinity while gradually weakening. Modest enhancement to the
low/mid-level flow attendant to this feature could support an
isolated damaging wind threat with convection that develops this
afternoon. But, with deep-layer shear expected to remain weak, the
overall severe threat will likely remain quite isolated/marginal.

...Arizona...
A mid-level anticyclone will remain anchored over the southern Great
Basin today. On the periphery of this anticyclone, around 20-25 kt
of northeasterly mid-level flow may aid thunderstorms that develop
over the higher terrain of southeast AZ/southwest NM in moving
southwestward this afternoon/evening across lower elevations. A very
deeply mixed boundary layer may support isolated severe wind gusts
with this activity, even though instability and deep-layer shear
will likely remain weak.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141632
SWODY1
SPC AC 141630

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FAR EAST-CENTRAL WYOMING...SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND THE FAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon
into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across the Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida.

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with
some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is
currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians,
along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly
cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
ongoing just ahead of this shortwave.

Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue
eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper
troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of
ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is
in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will
support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon
despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough)
moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places
a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through
central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the
large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support
scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.

While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected
to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into
multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates
and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to
damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through
the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and
greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern
PA through central VA.

...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota...
Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across
the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a
sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote
thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late
afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of
stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly
flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better
moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for
strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout
the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface
trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A
conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the
surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm
coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air
advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated
thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an
upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and
buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions
tonight.

...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula...
Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in
strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL
Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards
the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to
widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection
should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated
strong to severe winds are possible.

...AZ...
High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to
around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ
this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop
across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed
boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are
possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse.

...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South...
A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this
morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX
Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north
TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with
each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical
shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the
stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging
downbursts.

..Mosier/Jirak.. 07/14/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 141959
SWODY1
SPC AC 141957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 142000Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the
northern Plains as well as the Mid-Atlantic States this afternoon
into tonight. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible
across the East, Mid-South, southeast Arizona, and Florida.

...20z Update...
The previous outlook remains on track and no significant changes
were made with this update. Towering cumulus/initial storm
development is underway across the higher terrain of WY and, as
remaining CINH as shown on the 18z Rapid City Sounding is removed
via diurnal heating, additional development is expected in the
vicinity of the Black Hills. Storms should tend to evolve into
clusters/line segments while moving east this afternoon and evening.
Very steep low- and mid-level lapse rates and dry low levels above
the boundary layer will result in a damaging wind risk, and an
isolated potential for severe hail with isolated stronger storms.

Across the mid-Atlantic, thunderstorms continue to develop and move
east within a very moist/moderately unstable air mass. Please refer
to Mesoscale Convective Discussion 1668 for the latest short-term
thinking regarding convective evolution in this area.

..Bunting.. 07/14/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025/

...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
A belt of stronger mid-level flow extends from the north-central CONUS/south-central Canadian Prairies through the Northeast, with
some modest cyclonic curvature. A more defined shortwave trough is
currently progressing into the Upper OH Valley/central Appalachians,
along the southern periphery of the belt of stronger, broadly
cyclonic flow. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are currently
ongoing just ahead of this shortwave.

Expectation is for this shortwave trough to continue
eastward/northeastward throughout the day, with the modest upper
troughing farther north shifting eastward as well. A reservoir of
ample low-level moisture (i.e. dewpoints in the low to mid 70s) is
in place ahead of this shortwave. This low-level moisture will
support airmass destabilization and moderate buoyancy this afternoon
despite widespread cloudiness and tempered daytime heating.
Thunderstorm development is anticipated as large-scale ascent
attendant to the approaching shortwave (and larger upper trough)
moves into the region. Additionally, recent surface analysis places
a trough axis from the northern NY/VT border southwestward through
central PA. Low-level convergence along this axis could augment the
large-scale ascent. All of these factors will act to support
scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon.

While mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are both expected
to remain fairly modest, some of this convection could congeal into
multiple loosely organized clusters. Steepened low-level lapse rates
and water loaded downdrafts could support isolated strong to
damaging winds as thunderstorms spread generally eastward through
the afternoon and evening. Highest thunderstorm coverage and
greatest relative chance for damaging gusts is expected from eastern
PA through central VA.

...Northern Plains to Northern Minnesota...
Satellite imagery shows a vorticity maximum drifting slowly across
the central Intermountain West. Large-scale ascent attendant to this
vorticity maximum will augment low-level convergence along a
sharpening lee trough, likely resulting in enough lift to promote
thunderstorm development across eastern WY during the late
afternoon. This area is on the southern periphery of a belt of
stronger westerlies, and there appears to be just enough westerly
flow aloft for updraft organization and persistence into the better
moisture and buoyancy farther east. As such, there is a risk for
strong to severe gusts within this deeply mixed airmass throughout
the afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorm development also appears possible along a surface
trough that arcs from western MT to a low in southwest SD. A
conditional severe risk exists with any storms that develop near the
surface low over ND this afternoon, but the greater thunderstorm
coverage is anticipated later this evening and overnight as warm-air
advection across the frontal zone strengthens. Elevated
thunderstorms are also expected tonight as an
upper trough overspreads the northern Rockies. Given ample shear and
buoyancy, isolated hail is possible in both of these regions
tonight.

...Eastern GA into the FL Peninsula...
Ample low-level moisture and robust diurnal heating will result in
strong buoyancy from eastern GA southward across the entire FL
Peninsula this afternoon. A modest cyclone drifting westward towards
the GA/FL coast will interact with this airmass, contributing to
widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon. Convection
should develop along/near the Atlantic Coast before spreading south-southwestward and inland across much of the FL Peninsula this afternoon/evening. Several clusters capable of producing isolated
strong to severe winds are possible.

...AZ...
High pressure over the southern Great Basin will contribute to
around 20-25 kt of northeasterly mid-level flow across southern AZ
this afternoon. This mid-level flow will take storms that develop
across the higher terrain southwestward into the deeply mixed
boundary layer over southeast AZ. A few strong to severe gusts are
possible, but overall coverage will likely be sparse.

...South-Central/Southeast TX into the Mid-South...
A trio of MCVs is apparent on radar and satellite imagery this
morning. One is centered over Real and Uvalde Counties in the TX
Hill Country, with another over Denton and Collin Counties in north
TX, and the third farther north over northeast AR. At least
scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening with
each of these MCVs as they progress eastward/northeastward. Vertical
shear will be weak, but discrete storm propagation along the
stronger outflows could result in occasionally strong/damaging
downbursts.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150052
SWODY1
SPC AC 150051

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0751 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SD...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe gusts over South Dakota should diminish into late
evening. Isolated severe hail and wind remains possible overnight
from parts of Montana to northern Minnesota.

...Northern/central High Plains to northern MT...
Much of the high-based convection from southwest SD to northeast CO
should weaken in the next couple hours, with a waning severe-gust
threat. More recent development into north-central SD may persist
into late evening before diminishing near the northeast SD/southeast
ND border as nocturnal MLCIN builds.

Elevated thunderstorms will develop in the late evening and become
widespread overnight, especially across ND and northern MN, with
strengthening large-scale ascent atop a well-defined surface front.
Severe hail and strong gust coverage is expected to remain isolated.
These hazards might be maximized in a mesoscale corridor across
central/eastern ND into northern MN. But convective orientation
nearly paralleling the effective bulk shear vector suggests a
cluster mode should quickly dominate. This along with a minimal
speed change in the mid to upper portion of the MUCAPE profile (as
sampled by the 00Z BIS sounding) support maintaining level 1-MRGL
risk.

...Southeast AZ...
Sparse convective coverage amid weak mid-level northeasterlies, as
sampled by area VWP data, appears to be mitigating the severe wind
threat. Locally strong gusts may still occur through dusk as
isolated cells slowly spread west-southwest.

..Grams.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 150554
SWODY1
SPC AC 150552

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 151200Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF
NE...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SEPARATELY IN
WY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts, some significant, and large hail are
probable across parts of Nebraska this evening. A mix of scattered
damaging winds and severe hail are possible from the Upper Great
Lakes into Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening.

...Synopsis...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough over the northern Rockies will
pivot eastward into the northern Great Plains by early Wednesday.
Low-amplitude shortwave impulses will persist downstream across the
southern Canadian Prairies and northern ON. Multiple MCVs will drift
east from the central Rockies to Upper Midwest.

As surface ridging builds down the High Plains today, a lee cyclone
should be centered over the central High Plains this afternoon. The slower-moving portion of the cold front will extend northeast
towards Lake Superior. This boundary should become more wavy as
extensive convective outflows occur by evening.

...NE/SD...
A rather favorable thermodynamic environment will exist ahead of the aforementioned surface low and front by peak heating. Hot and
deep-mixed thermodynamic profiles will overlap the western periphery
of rich low-level moisture over the eastern plains. Amid very steep
mid-level lapse rates, a corridor of large buoyancy with MLCAPE of
2500-3500 J/kg should develop from central NE into southern SD.
While mid-level westerlies should be weak, increasing speed shear
will exist into the upper levels, fostering large hail growth in
initial cells.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected along the nose of the low-level
thermal ridge as a minor mid-level impulse near the MT/WY border
shifts east into central SD during the late afternoon to early
evening. Progressively higher-based storms should flank to the
southwest towards the lee cyclone. Pronounced low-level convergence
along the front is expected through the evening. This setup should
favor the large hail threat transitioning to upscale growth and a
potential severe MCS. ARW-NSSL forecast soundings indicate potential
for a 75-kt rear-inflow jet, which would be conducive to significant
severe surface gusts. The most likely corridor for these to occur is
centered on the central NE vicinity. This MCS may persist overnight
but should wane owing to lessening instability/increasing MLCIN.

...Upper Great Lakes/Midwest...
Remnants of ongoing convection are expected to be ongoing at 12Z
across the northeast MN/far northwest WI/western Lake Superior
vicinity. This activity may persist into late morning but should
diminish/shift east of the international border. The trailing outflow-reinforced front will be the focus for renewed storm
development during the afternoon. The most likely corridor is from
central MN into western Upper MI, as an MCV approaches from central
SD. Guidance varies on the degree of timing, but early afternoon
initiation appears plausible. In west-central MN to eastern SD,
guidance has more spread in the degree of convective coverage along
this portion of the front, likely related to MCV timing. Ample
buoyancy south of the boundary in MN to northwest WI will foster
potential for an initial hail threat before multicell clusters yield
sporadic damaging winds.

...WY to eastern Great Basin...
Mid-level height falls attendant to the aforementioned northern
Rockies shortwave trough will favor scattered to widespread
thunderstorms, peaking in the late afternoon to early evening. The
highest probability of organized storms will be across WY, as a
compact 40-50 kt jetlet becomes centered near the Yellowstone
vicinity. Downstream surface ridging will modulate the northeast
extent of severe potential. But a confined corridor centered along
the surface front should be favored for an organized cluster. With
inverted-v thermodynamic profiles south of the front, a swath of
severe gusts and isolated severe hail are possible from 22-03Z.

Very deeply mixed thermodynamic profiles will be prevalent into
parts of UT to northeast NV. Weak deep-layer shear will yield
disorganized cells, but any of this activity will be capable of
erratic severe gusts.

...Southeast AZ...
Weak mid-level east-northeasterlies and a hot boundary layer could
support localized severe gusts from late afternoon through dusk.

..Grams/Thornton.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151236
SWODY1
SPC AC 151234

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0734 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 151300Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable
across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. A mix of
scattered severe/damaging winds and large hail should also occur
from the Upper Great Lakes to Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Great Lakes...
A belt of stronger mid-level westerly flow will remain confined
generally along/north of the international border today. Even so,
multiple weak mid-level perturbations, some of which are related to prior/ongoing convection, will aid in additional thunderstorm
development later this afternoon and evening across portions of the northern/central Plains to upper Great Lakes. This convection will
also be aided by a slowly southward sagging cold front across SD
into NE, as a weak low develops northeastward across the Upper
Midwest into Canada along this boundary. As diurnal heating occurs
today, a moist and moderately to strongly unstable airmass will
exist by this afternoon along/south of the front from NE into parts
of SD, MN, and the U.P. of MI. While stronger flow aloft will tend
to remain to the north of the front, there should still be
sufficient deep-layer shear across the warm sector for some updraft organization.

Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along
the front in MN by early afternoon, and quickly spread eastward
across northern WI, the U.P. of MI, and Lake Superior through the
rest of the afternoon into the evening. Sufficient instability and
effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to
support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail
will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms,
before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the
threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly
weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with
eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes.

A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate
along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely present
across this region compared to locations farther north, but
deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still,
some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates and ample instability. The threat for
scattered to numerous severe/damaging winds is expected to increase
through the evening across central NE as an intense bowing cluster
develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of
75+ mph appear possible given the rather favorable thermodynamic
environment.

...Great Basin into Wyoming...
The upper trough digging southeastward over the northern Rockies
today will influence convective development this afternoon across
parts of the northern Great Basin and WY vicinity. High-based
convection that occurs across parts of eastern NV into UT will occur
in a relatively dry profile, with limited total precipitable water.
Still, a deeply mixed boundary layer coupled with weak instability
should support some risk for severe gusts with this activity as it
moves generally east-northeastward this afternoon/evening across the
northern Great Basin vicinity.

Greater low-level moisture, with surface dewpoints generally in the
low to mid 50s, is already present this morning over parts northern
WY. Convection that initially develops near Yellowstone in northwest
WY may grow upscale fairly quickly into an organized cluster given
25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, while posing a threat for mainly
severe/damaging winds given the presence of steepened low/mid-level
lapse rates. Isolated large hail may also occur. The Slight Risk
across WY has been expanded northward/eastward some based on latest
guidance trends. This cluster should eventually weaken late this evening/tonight as it approaches the WY/NE/SD border vicinity.

...Arizona...
Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across
parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone
over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again
develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and
southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected
with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated
threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of
southern AZ through the evening.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 151623
SWODY1
SPC AC 151621

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 151630Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...FOR NORTHERN AND EASTERN
WYOMING...AND NORTHERN UTAH AND SURROUNDING VICINITY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable
across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered
severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and
Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening.

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging,
southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple
mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states.
Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east
across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough
moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will
likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe
activity later today.

Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th
parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very
unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest
southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop
from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead
of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and
effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to
support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail
will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms,
before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the
threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly
weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with
eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes.

A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate
along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present
across this region compared to locations farther north, but
deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still,
some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous
severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening
across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible
given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment.

...Great Basin into Wyoming...
The only change for this portion of the region is to increase
severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states.
The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by
the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream
northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today,
short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is
consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from
northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far
southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative
cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are
possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening.

Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging
southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered
storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening.
An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear,
while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the
presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail
may also occur.

...Arizona...
Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across
parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone
over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again
develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and
southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected
with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated
threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of
southern AZ through the evening.

..Smith/Jirak.. 07/15/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 152000
SWODY1
SPC AC 151958

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0258 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR WEST...AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable
across parts of Nebraska late this afternoon and evening. Scattered
severe gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and
Wyoming this afternoon to mid-evening.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast remains on track, with only minor changes to
the general thunder line to reflect the latest observations. Please
refer to MCD 1675 for some of the latest short-term trends for storm development over portions of the central Plains.

..Squitieri.. 07/15/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025/

...Northern/Central Plains to the Upper Midwest...
Primary focus for thunderstorms will be a slowly sagging,
southward-moving cold front across the Upper Midwest and a couple
mid-level perturbations moving east across the north-central states.
Radar imagery shows a convectively augment disturbance moving east
across northern SD and water-vapor imagery shows shortwave trough
moving east across southeast WY. Both mid-level features will
likely prove instrumental in storm coverage and the risk for severe
activity later today.

Despite stronger mid-level westerly flow relegated north of the 48th
parallel, strong heating of a moist airmass will result in a very
unstable boundary layer by mid afternoon from the Upper Midwest
southwestward into the NE Sandhills. Storms will probably develop
from eastern SD and into MN this afternoon near the front and ahead
of the SD mid-level feature. Sufficient instability and
effective bulk shear should be present along/ahead of the front to
support organized convection, including some supercells. Large hail
will be possible with the initially semi-discrete thunderstorms,
before a rapid transition to a cluster/linear mode increases the
threat for severe/damaging winds. This activity should quickly
weaken by late evening as it encounters a less unstable airmass with
eastward extent across the upper Great Lakes.

A somewhat separate area of thunderstorms should initiate
along/south of the front across parts of southern SD into NE by late afternoon/early evening. Greater instability will likely be present
across this region compared to locations farther north, but
deep-layer shear should be more modest (around 25-30 kt). Still,
some large hail may occur initially given the presence of steep
mid-level lapse rates. The threat for scattered to numerous
severe/damaging winds is expected to increase through the evening
across central NE as an intense bowing cluster develops and spreads southeastward. Isolated significant gusts of 75+ mph appear possible
given the rather favorable thermodynamic environment.

...Great Basin into Wyoming...
The only change for this portion of the region is to increase
severe-wind probabilities across northern UT and surrounding states.
The southern fringe of stronger mid-level westerlies was sampled by
the 12 UTC Salt Lake City raob. With the approach of the upstream
northern Rockies disturbance glancing the region later today,
short-term model guidance (e.g., HREF members, time-lagged HRRR) is
consistent in showing small clusters of storms moving east from
northeast NV/northwest UT eastward into northern UT/southeast ID/far
southwest WY. Inverted-V profiles will strongly favor evaporative
cooling with the more rain-laden cores. Scattered severe gusts are
possible with the more intense downbursts through early evening.

Farther east, the closer proximity to the upper trough digging
southeastward over the northern Rockies will promote scattered
storms across northern into eastern WY this afternoon and evening.
An organized cluster may evolve given 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear,
while posing a threat for mainly severe/damaging winds given the
presence of steepened low/mid-level lapse rates. Isolated large hail
may also occur.

...Arizona...
Modest mid-level east-northeasterlies will be present today across
parts of AZ on the southern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone
over the Southwest. Scattered thunderstorms should once again
develop this afternoon over the higher terrain of southeast AZ and
southwest NM. With very steep low/mid-level lapse rates expected
with ample daytime heating, this activity may pose an isolated
threat for severe winds as it spreads into the lower elevations of
southern AZ through the evening.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160051
SWODY1
SPC AC 160050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Valid 160100Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
WYOMING...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe gusts (some 75+ mph) and large hail are probable
across parts of central Nebraska this evening. Isolated severe
gusts are also possible from the Upper Midwest to Utah and Wyoming
through mid-evening.

...SD/NE...
An organized linear MCS has become established from eastern SD into
central NE. These storms have product several reports of locally
damaging winds and some large hail. This QLCS will progress
east-southeastward through the evening into western IA and southeast
NE, with a continued severe threat. Reference MCD #1679 and WW #514
for further details.

...Northern WY/Western Upper MI...
A line of intense thunderstorms is tracking eastward along and south
of the WI/Upper MI state line. These storms have produced sporadic
damaging wind gusts over the last few hours, and are probably
past-peak. Nevertheless, a few severe storms will remain possible
for another 2-3 hours. Reference WW #513 for further details.

...WY...
Scattered high-based thunderstorms continue to develop and spread
across much of western and central WY. The strongest cells in this
area will maintain some risk of damaging wind gusts for a few more
hours until diurnal cooling diminishes the threat. Reference WW
#515 for further details.

...Southeast AZ...
Scattered thunderstorms continue to develop in a warm/moist
environment over southeast AZ. This activity will slowly build
westward for the next several hours, with a risk of gusty/damaging
winds. Reference MCD #1680 for further details.

..Hart.. 07/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 160538
SWODY1
SPC AC 160536

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1236 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION....

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Wednesday
afternoon and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the
Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic states.

...Upper MS Valley...
A large but weakening linear MCS is tracking slowly eastward into
western MN/IA. 00z model consensus shows a convectively enhanced
upper trough and MCV will emerge from this activity, tracking into
parts of WI and northern IL by Wednesday afternoon. Strong heating
and ample low-level moisture will be in place over the warm sector
of this MCV, but weak mid-level lapse rates will limit CAPE values
to around 2000 J/kg. Present indications are that thunderstorms
will intensify by mid-afternoon across this region and spread
eastward toward Lake Michigan and western Lower MI by evening. The
strongest cells will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts. Enhanced
vertical shear near the MCV may also result in a tornado or two.

...WY/CO...
The belt of primary mid-level westerlies will extend across WY later
today, with the southern fringe of stronger flow aloft over northern
CO. Ample mid-level moisture will encourage scattered afternoon
thunderstorms over the mountains and foothills of CO/southern WY,
with storms moving into the adjacent plains by mid-afternoon.
Backed low-level winds will result in favorable deep-layer shear for
a few organized/supercell storms capable of large hail and damaging
winds through the afternoon and early evening.

...NY/PA/WV...
Current water vapor loops shows a subtle shortwave trough and weak
mid-level jet max over southern IL. This feature will track
northeastward up the OH Valley and into parts of OH/WV/PA by
Wednesday afternoon. Forcing associated with this feature, combined
with a warm/humid air mass will promote multiple clusters of
thunderstorms affecting the region. Forecast soundings show rather
weak mid-level lapse rates, weak winds in the lowest 4km, and
considerable mid-level moisture limiting downdraft potential. Will
therefore maintain only MRGL at this time, but acknowledge some risk
of scattered wind damage across this region later today.

..Hart/Thornton.. 07/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161232
SWODY1
SPC AC 161230

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0730 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 161300Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening from parts of the central High Plains to the Great Lakes
and Mid-Atlantic.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
A well-defined MCV is evident on radar/satellite imagery this
morning over IA. This feature will drift east-northeastward today
across the Midwest and Great Lakes, eventually reaching southern
Ontario tonight. A related surface low will develop from IA to
southern WI and Lake Michigan this afternoon/evening, with the
primary synoptic front farther north in WI. Diurnal heating of a
rather moist low-level airmass will likely yield around 1000-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE across southern WI into northern/central IL (locally
stronger with southward extent). The modestly enhanced low/mid-level
winds associated with the MCV should support around 30-40 kt of
deep-layer shear, sufficient for organized severe thunderstorms.

Current expectations are for a band of semi-discrete thunderstorms
to develop across eastern IA into northern IL and southern/central
WI by early to mid afternoon as large-scale ascent attendant to the
MCV overspreads the destabilizing warm sector. Some of this activity
could be supercellular initially and pose a threat for isolated
severe hail along with damaging winds. With time late this afternoon
and evening, gradual upscale growth into a bowing cluster should
occur, with a greater risk for severe/damaging winds towards Lake
Michigan and parts of southern Lower MI. Although low-level flow and
related shear is not forecast to become overly strong this
afternoon, it should be sufficient for some low-level updraft
rotation and perhaps a few tornadoes, particularly across parts of
southern WI/northern IL where semi-discrete convection may occur.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A weak mid-level shortwave trough located over the OH Valley this
morning will advance northeastward today to the northern
Mid-Atlantic/NY. Recent visible satellite imagery this morning shows considerable cloud cover present with this feature, along with some
low clouds downstream. Even so, filtered daytime heating of a
seasonably moist airmass should support the development of weak to
locally moderate instability by this afternoon. Poor lapse rates
aloft may tend to inhibit stronger updrafts to some extent, but
marginal deep-layer shear (generally around 20-30 kt) should still
support some degree of convective organization. Loosely organized
clusters and occasional cells may pose an isolated threat for
damaging winds as they spread generally east-northeastward across
parts of the OH Valley and Mid-Atlantic this afternoon/evening.
Confidence in a more concentrated corridor of damaging winds remains
too low to include greater severe probabilities at this time.

...Central Plains to Northern Missouri...
A convectively reinforced surface front should stall by this
afternoon across KS into eastern CO, with a modest low-level upslope
flow regime occurring across the Front Range/central High Plains. On
the southern periphery of an upper trough moving eastward over the northern/central Plains, thunderstorms should develop by early
afternoon over the higher terrain of the central Rockies. This
convection is forecast to move eastward into the adjacent High
Plains through the rest of the afternoon, and continuing through the
evening. The post-frontal airmass should only modestly destabilize,
but enough instability and the presence of steepened lapse rates
aloft are forecast to support robust updrafts. Weak low-level flow
veering to westerly and gradually strengthening with height at
mid/upper levels will likely foster around 35-45 kt of deep-layer
shear. This will easily support supercells and associated large hail
threat with the initial development. Some potential for upscale
growth into a loosely organized cluster is possible across southeast
CO and vicinity this evening along/near the stalled surface front.
If this occurs, then severe winds would become the primary risk.

Farther east across KS into northern MO, isolated convection may
develop through peak afternoon heating along the front. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly modest, strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates could still support
occasional severe hail/wind with the more robust cores that can be
sustained. Additional convection may develop along/north of the
front this evening in a low-level warm advection regime, while also
posing an isolated severe threat.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Convection offshore from the central Gulf Coast remains disorganized
this morning, as a weak surface low (Invest 93L) remains along/near
the coast of the FL Panhandle. Regardless of potential tropical
development (reference latest NHC forecast), modest enhancement to
the low-level wind field should occur as this feature tracks towards coastal/southeast LA by early Thursday morning. Thunderstorms should occasionally spread inland along/near the central Gulf Coast through
the period, but overall severe potential still appears too limited
to introduce a Marginal Risk with this update.

..Gleason/Bentley.. 07/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161629
SWODY1
SPC AC 161627

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening over parts of the Midwest and central High Plains.

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows an MCV over northeast IA
co-located with a 1007-mb surface low. A front is draped from
northeast to southwest and is forecast to gradually push eastward
during the day. The frontal segment east-northeast of the low will
remain quasi-stationary and serve as the northern delimiter of a
surface-based warm sector. Continued heating of a moist boundary
layer will contribute to 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across central WI
into northern/central IL. The modestly enhanced low/mid-level
winds associated with the MCV will yield 30-40 kt of effective shear---supporting rotation with a few of the stronger updrafts this
afternoon.

Semi-discrete thunderstorms developing in a north-south band will
likely continue to intensify as ascent overspreads the warm sector
over WI and far northern IL. A few supercells are possible with an
attendant risk for all hazards. With time late this afternoon
and evening, gradual upscale growth into a bowing cluster should
occur, with a greater risk for severe/damaging winds towards Lake
Michigan and parts of southern Lower MI.

...Central High Plains to Northern Missouri...
Indications late this morning are that a convectively reinforced
surface front will become stationary across KS into eastern CO with
moist, upslope flow into the central High Plains north of the
boundary. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly
flow will glance the central High Plains where strongly veering flow
will result in deep-layer shear supporting storm organization.
Although heating will be partially thwarted by persistent low-level
cloud cover through at least the early afternoon, sufficient heating
is expected to result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms
eventually developing during the late afternoon. A few supercells
are possible with an accompanying threat for large hail and
localized severe gusts. As storm coverage increases, upscale growth
into an organized cluster is probable during the evening. Severe
gusts will likely become the primary hazard during the evening as
the mode becomes more linear and outflow dominant.

Farther east across KS into northern MO, isolated convection may
develop through peak afternoon heating along the front. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly modest, strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates could still support
occasional severe hail/wind with the more robust cores that can be
sustained. Additional convection may develop along/north of the
front this evening in a low-level warm advection regime, while also
posing an isolated severe threat.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A couple of MCVs will focus scattered strong to locally severe
thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and early evening. Relatively
weak lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit
storm organization. Nonetheless, sporadic and isolated bouts of
strong to damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
thunderstorms through early evening.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Modest strengthening of the low-level wind field is expected as a
weak tropical disturbance migrates westward over the northern Gulf
of America. However, model guidance shows hodographs generally
remaining diminutive in size, implying disorganized storm modes
(mainly outflow dominant structures in the form of bands and small
clusters).

..Smith/Lyons.. 07/16/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 161930
SWODY1
SPC AC 161929

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025

Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and
evening over parts of the Midwest and central High Plains.

...20Z Update...
The previous forecast (see below) remains largely on track. The main
changes made to the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook update was to trim
severe probabilities behind the main band of convection across the
Upper MS Valley, and to trim thunderstorm probabilities over parts
of the north-central CONUS, amid waning buoyancy.

..Squitieri.. 07/16/2025

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Jul 16 2025/

...Midwest/Great Lakes...
Late morning radar/satellite imagery shows an MCV over northeast IA
co-located with a 1007-mb surface low. A front is draped from
northeast to southwest and is forecast to gradually push eastward
during the day. The frontal segment east-northeast of the low will
remain quasi-stationary and serve as the northern delimiter of a
surface-based warm sector. Continued heating of a moist boundary
layer will contribute to 1000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE across central WI
into northern/central IL. The modestly enhanced low/mid-level
winds associated with the MCV will yield 30-40 kt of effective shear---supporting rotation with a few of the stronger updrafts this
afternoon.

Semi-discrete thunderstorms developing in a north-south band will
likely continue to intensify as ascent overspreads the warm sector
over WI and far northern IL. A few supercells are possible with an
attendant risk for all hazards. With time late this afternoon
and evening, gradual upscale growth into a bowing cluster should
occur, with a greater risk for severe/damaging winds towards Lake
Michigan and parts of southern Lower MI.

...Central High Plains to Northern Missouri...
Indications late this morning are that a convectively reinforced
surface front will become stationary across KS into eastern CO with
moist, upslope flow into the central High Plains north of the
boundary. The southern periphery of stronger mid-level westerly
flow will glance the central High Plains where strongly veering flow
will result in deep-layer shear supporting storm organization.
Although heating will be partially thwarted by persistent low-level
cloud cover through at least the early afternoon, sufficient heating
is expected to result in scattered to widespread thunderstorms
eventually developing during the late afternoon. A few supercells
are possible with an accompanying threat for large hail and
localized severe gusts. As storm coverage increases, upscale growth
into an organized cluster is probable during the evening. Severe
gusts will likely become the primary hazard during the evening as
the mode becomes more linear and outflow dominant.

Farther east across KS into northern MO, isolated convection may
develop through peak afternoon heating along the front. While
deep-layer shear is forecast to remain fairly modest, strong
instability and steep mid-level lapse rates could still support
occasional severe hail/wind with the more robust cores that can be
sustained. Additional convection may develop along/north of the
front this evening in a low-level warm advection regime, while also
posing an isolated severe threat.

...Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic...
A couple of MCVs will focus scattered strong to locally severe
thunderstorms mainly this afternoon and early evening. Relatively
weak lapse rates and modest deep-layer shear will tend to limit
storm organization. Nonetheless, sporadic and isolated bouts of
strong to damaging gusts are possible with the stronger
thunderstorms through early evening.

...Central Gulf Coast...
Modest strengthening of the low-level wind field is expected as a
weak tropical disturbance migrates westward over the northern Gulf
of America. However, model guidance shows hodographs generally
remaining diminutive in size, implying disorganized storm modes
(mainly outflow dominant structures in the form of bands and small
clusters).

$$

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